Matthew

[MJO812]

0z Ukie is slightly more north for the mid atlantic people. Matthew gets to Hatteras. Never did on the 12z run

0z

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060

12z

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=060&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072

[shaggy]

The euro holds on to the sharp southeast hook when it gets up here off SC/NC border. The only way I saw the nhc adjusting their track was if the euro flattened out like the Ukie, gfs, hwrf and gfdl but the euro held strong on the turn. Bet the nhc sticks to it at 5am and doesn't budge on track reasoning.

[ncskywarn]

Looks like more models then not now bring it up at least partially the North Carolina coast.

[shaggy]

Hope they are wrong...

 

At this time the main threat still looks like the
potential for significant rainfall across the area combined with
minor coastal flooding...which could result in moderate inundation
in some locations. A Flash Flood Watch continues across the area
into Sunday. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall Sat into
Sunday morning...with storm total rainfall 6-12 inches, with
locally higher amounts up to 15 inches possible. WPCs excessive
rainfall outlook has ENC in a moderate to high.

 

[Regan]

30 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Looks like more models then not now bring it up at least partially the North Carolina coast.

Interesting me thinks. 

[Regan]

Newest cone from the NHC has the NC southern coast and the mean line is closer to shore then previous tracks the past few days.  May be something we need to watch.

[jburns]

21 minutes ago, Regan said:

Newest cone from the NHC has the NC southern coast and the mean line is closer to shore then previous tracks the past few days.  May be something we need to watch.

 

Please do not double post in both hurricane threads.

[Midnight Moon]

From NHS Discussion:

The satellite appearance of Matthew has become rather disheveled
looking in infrared satellite imagery since the previous advisory.
Land-based Doppler radar data indicate that Matthew has been going
through an eyewall replacement cycle for the past 12 hours or so,
but the inner eyewall has yet to dissipate within the 35-40 nmi wide
outer eyewall. Both Doppler velocity data and recon SFMR surface
winds and flight-level winds indicate that hurricane-force winds are
and have been occuring within the outer eyewall just 5-10 nmi east
of the Florida coastline. Although the central pressure has
remained steady between 938-940 mb, the intensity has been lowered
to 105 kt based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 118 kt and several
patches of Doppler velocities of 120-122 kt between 5000-7500 feet....

 
Matthew is expected to slowly weaken some more during the next 12
hours or so while the cyclone completes the eyewall replacement
cycle. By 24 hours and beyond, more significant weakening is
expected due to the combination of strong southwesterly vertical
shear increasing to more than 30 kt and entrainment of very dry
mid-level air with humidity values less than 20 percent. The new
intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN.

[PackGrad05]

My post got deleted in the other thread for some reason, but I said that I think the NHC is being conservative with the track.  We will need to monitor the next models to see if any other northern shift occurs.

 

Folks in eastern NC need to take this seriously.

[tramadoc]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

My post got deleted in the other thread for some reason, but I said that I think the NHC is being conservative with the track.  We will need to monitor the next models to see if any other northern shift occurs.

 

Folks in eastern NC need to take this seriously.

If the latest rainfall totals for Northeast NC are anywhere close to being correct, it will take over a week for us to recover from flooding. With the flooding we had here three weeks ago with Hermine, it took nearly two weeks for the levels to dissipate.

[packbacker]

Cold Rain...get ready.

[FallsLake]

16 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

If the latest rainfall totals for Northeast NC are anywhere close to being correct, it will take over a week for us to recover from flooding. With the flooding we had here three weeks ago with Hermine, it took nearly two weeks for the levels to dissipate.

Rain is already falling in NC. High amounts/flooding could end up being the biggest impacts of this storm in the US. 

[metwannabe]

Rain is already falling in NC. High amounts/flooding could end up being the biggest impacts of this storm in the US. 

Usually the most under estimated impact from TC by general public but the deadliest. With rains already spreading in real concerned for ENC with this

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Regan]

49 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

My post got deleted in the other thread for some reason, but I said that I think the NHC is being conservative with the track.  We will need to monitor the next models to see if any other northern shift occurs.

 

Folks in eastern NC need to take this seriously.

Yeah. My thought too. Maybe they don't want to change it but so many times. Wral said this morning that they are inclined to think that it could move and it would likely be inland.   She discussed how that would effect us with rain etc. showed a few graphics. These handmade cones on these stations are not very accurate depictions if one compares them to NHC. I mean, people are so visual and literal and may disregard danger if they see they are barely in it.  You'd think they'd be careful and mimic the NHC as much as possible. ABC did a live Facebook and he said he expects that the NHC will maybe bridge the gap on the cone to reflect the models and he showed the spaghetti models as well.  It may well be on to something. Really it does look like they are making baby steps on this update. 

[tramadoc]

AKQ (NWS Wakefield) has put Northeast NC under a flash flood watch through Sunday afternoon.

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL Elizabeth Gardner

16 mins ·

If the track continues to shift northwest the rain will cause more widespread flooding here. The sandhills will be hit especially hard because of the flooding they saw last week. Remember - never drive your car into a flooded road. Be prepared to stay home Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

 

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL Elizabeth Gardner

Just now ·

Futurecast shows center of Matthew very close to Wilmington at 5pm Saturday. In our area we're seeing very heavy rain bands and winds gusting 25mph in the north and up to 45 mph in the south.

 

[tramadoc]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

WRAL Elizabeth Gardner

16 mins ·

If the track continues to shift northwest the rain will cause more widespread flooding here. The sandhills will be hit especially hard because of the flooding they saw last week. Remember - never drive your car into a flooded road. Be prepared to stay home Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

 

Allan responded to a tweet from someone a few miles from me in Currituck and said we could see up to 10" of rain locally. I'm interested to see what happens with the 11am advisory and if the track/cone is shifted more towards ILM/MHX/HAT.

[rowjimmy73]

raining here in danville since we got up at 530. glad to report family in melbourne, fl is safe, no power but safe. some of them are waiting to head back beachside and see if their home survived

[Cold Rain]

59 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Cold Rain...get ready.

Yeah man, ready here.  I don't expect 50 mph winds here unless the track comes inland more.  But a gust or two to 40 wouldn't surprise me.  Hoping for at least 5" of rain. 

[downeastnc]

Even the Euro is only 75 miles south of ILM now and every other model is closer or even over ILM, while most of those tracks would result in a weaker storm it would likely verify hurricane gust along the entire NC coast up to Cape Lookout and the GFDL and GFS track might even get the northern OBX....again the models still pop a big high over TX and thats what shoves the trough north and Matt SE....like this 

 

If that feature isnt as strong or the trough hangs on longer or slower or deeper etc then Matt will get more north and thats still 2 days away and a 100 mile shift in track isnt uncommon in the 40 hr range in this setup especially....I bet the NHC pushes the hurricane warning to Cape Fear and a tropical storm warning to Cape Lookout no later than 5pm today....if the models keep the current track.....the current water vapor map looks Matt might speed up some here soon and head more north...if he can stay well off the GA coast that will be great for them but it will allow the storm to rebuild and organize its core better and probably be bad news for SC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[metwannabe]

4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah man, ready here.  I don't expect 50 mph winds here unless the track comes inland more.  But a gust or two to 40 wouldn't surprise me.  Hoping for at least 5" of rain. 

The GFDL, HWRF and GFS to some extent show the wind field expanding some as it moves closer to NC, especially the 850 winds, so about 1000-1500' above your head the winds could be screaming.... so I guess a good gust or two not out of the question.  I've had so much rain the last two weeks, ground saturated a gust or two to 40 mph would still probably bring down a tree or two.  Gonna be fun to watch! 

[packbacker]

HWRF looks unpleasant during State/ND game tomorrow.

[Cold Rain]

^ Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of sprinkles.

[Cold Rain]

3 minutes ago, metwannabe said:

The GFDL, HWRF and GFS to some extent show the wind field expanding some as it moves closer to NC, especially the 850 winds, so about 1000-1500' above your head the winds could be screaming.... so I guess a good gust or two not out of the question.  I've had so much rain the last two weeks, ground saturated a gust or two to 40 mph would still probably bring down a tree or two.  Gonna be fun to watch! 

Yeah, if the trough can tug it north a bit more, we'll probably see more appreciable wind.  Either way, like you said, it won't take much wind to down trees in a lot of areas, given the soil conditions.

[Jaguars]

Remarkable to watch an eye move right up the coast like it's glued to it.

[Brick Tamland]

7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

HWRF looks unpleasant during State/ND game tomorrow.

 

State, UNC, and Duke all play at home tomorrow. Going to be a mess.

[metwannabe]

3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah, if the trough can tug it north a bit more, we'll probably see more appreciable wind.  Either way, like you said, it won't take much wind to down trees in a lot of areas, given the soil conditions.

Gotta feel for Harnett and Cumberland counties that as of now look to be in the bulls eye for excessive rainfall totals, already talk by NWS of weakened dams/levees from last weeks floods....  

[franklin NCwx]

14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

^ Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of sprinkles.

Looks like you're nailing my forecast

[ragtop50]

6 minutes ago, metwannabe said:

Gotta feel for Harnett and Cumberland counties that as of now look to be in the bulls eye for excessive rainfall totals, already talk by NWS of weakened dams/levees from last weeks floods....  

I am in northern Cumberland county and that is my concern.  We received over 9" in just 12 hours a week ago, several inches more rain this weekend is going to be a bad situation.