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NWNC2015

Matthew

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Given 100% ensemble support from the GFS and the EURO/UKMET/others in unusual agreement for development...I figured this deserves its on thread now.

- - We are tracking an area of interest that moved off of Africa that will move through the far southern Caribbean...possibly hitting parts of South America...before lifting north.

two_atl_5d1.png

 

 

 

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Models are all over the place for this storm. A few days ago it was the Yucatan and Mexico then it was Florida. The latest has it splitting the uprights between Hatteras and Bermuda. I really don't think models will be accurate until it actually becomes a TS.

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Bad trend on the 0z GFS its further west to the East Coast...significant waves and erosion...now some squalls for the OBX on the far western side of Matthew...New England has a greater impact now as it heads for Nova Scotia landfall. 

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10 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

Bad trend on the 0z GFS its further west to the East Coast...significant waves and erosion...now some squalls for the OBX on the far western side of Matthew...New England has a greater impact now as it heads for Nova Scotia landfall. 

Yeah looks like it trended further west. Massive storm as well depicted by the GFS. 18z GEFS actually has more members hitting Florida than going out to sea.

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6 hours ago, metalicwx366 said:

Yeah looks like it trended further west. Massive storm as well depicted by the GFS. 18z GEFS actually has more members hitting Florida than going out to sea.

Euro ensemble way west...into the Gulf of Mexico. 6z GFS way east out to sea. This is common for a storm that is not well developed. Far from over.

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12Z GFS and CMC both fish it again, the trend it for this to turn up further east than modeled over the weekend, the weakness allows it to get moving poleward and then the strong high shoves it OTS..........the NE fetch between the low and the 1035MB high over NE ought to pound the beaches though.....12Z GFS would be rough on Bermuda....

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11 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

12Z GFS and CMC both fish it again, the trend it for this to turn up further east than modeled over the weekend, the weakness allows it to get moving poleward and then the strong high shoves it OTS..........the NE fetch between the low and the 1035MB high over NE ought to pound the beaches though.....12Z GFS would be rough on Bermuda....

12z Euro has it riding south american coast.  Through day 5 it's much further south/west then GFS. 

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29 minutes ago, packbacker said:

12z Euro has it riding south american coast.  Through day 5 it's much further south/west then GFS. 

Looks like it is gonna cut up over eastern Cuba this run which is further west than last run

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1 hour ago, packbacker said:

12z Euro has it riding south american coast.  Through day 5 it's much further south/west then GFS. 

Euro hasnt exactly been knocking it out of the park when it comes to the tropics lately....still its something to keep a eye on but this late in the year its gonna be tough to get something to turn back NW, once it starts going north in earnest.  besides its too close to hunting season and its already wet enough here, last thing I need is a foot of rain and wind knocking branches and trees down in all my shooting lanes...

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38 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Euro hasnt exactly been knocking it out of the park when it comes to the tropics lately....still its something to keep a eye on but this late in the year its gonna be tough to get something to turn back NW, once it starts going north in earnest.  besides its too close to hunting season and its already wet enough here, last thing I need is a foot of rain and wind knocking branches and trees down in all my shooting lanes...

True...EPS sure does look ominous day 8.  Cluster is south of Cuba, with ridge over the NE building into the atlantic.

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12 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

This definitely bears watching and I was looking at some of the 12Z GFS model ensemble members and this one ensemble 7 caught my eye. Has anyone ever seen a ensemble member ever do this before?

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFSens7/2016092612/slp.anim

Been plenty of crazy loops and tracks over the years...not sure I have seen one come back that much SW and actually hit the US after being that far NE...here are a couple of the more insane tracks off the east coast.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ginny

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Doria_(1967)

 

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32 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Been plenty of crazy loops and tracks over the years...not sure I have seen one come back that much SW and actually hit the US after being that far NE...here are a couple of the more insane tracks off the east coast.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ginny

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Doria_(1967)

 

Thanks for posting those Downeastnc. I didn't realize there have been some strange tracks like that  in the past. I noticed those were from the 60's I moved to NC in 1970. I guess anything can and will happen .

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14 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Thanks for posting those Downeastnc. I didn't realize there have been some strange tracks like that  in the past. I noticed those were from the 60's I moved to NC in 1970. I guess anything can and will happen .

Check out kyle from 2002. Formed high in the central atlantic did a loop or two and made landfall as a tropical storm over the southeast.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

Yep Cape Cod area hit pretty hard...narrow brush/miss with the eyewall

930MB on GFS into Cape Cos. 00Z CMC has this making landfall in North Carolina.

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Just now, metalicwx366 said:

930MB on GFS into Cape Cos. 00Z CMC has this making landfall in North Carolina.

Definitely worth a chase if the CMC is right...but it only heavily impacts the area of NC that has seen multiple tropical systems and flooding this year. Light to no impact from central NC to western NC where the drought is.

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I look for the EURO to handle 90 degree turns and due northerly movements best...certainly not putting all my eggs in the GFS/CMC solutions. It's going to be wild in a few days when the media/public gets their hands on euro track solutions later this week as we get closer. 

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Euro is over Jamaica and then right into the most mountainous part of Cuba, then heads more NW basically over Cuba.....that would severely disrupt if not outright kill the storm especially since it just interacted with Jamaica, its also faster being well NW of the 12Z run

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