tramadoc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just now, ncskywarn said: I just looked at the National Weather Service ILM weather page they haven't come out with a list of counties under the new warnings yet but I'm sure they will shortly. But that but that would be your best bet to get the county breakdown once they're updated. Thanks skywarn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 With the increasing rain and wind totals for the Triangle, I wouldn't want to be sitting in Kenan, Carter-Finley, or Wallace Wade this weekend. At least my Tigers play tonight up in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summey Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, tramadoc said: Looks that way... i'm seeing that as 65-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Looking back at models from yesterdays runs...they were to slow. Maybe because Matt is weaker. GFS is continuing that theme being a little quicker through 24. Looks to be very close to landfall at 24 at CHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Continuous coverage is getting ready to start on the big 3 Charleston TV stations. You can definitely tell the storm is nearly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 7, 2016 Author Share Posted October 7, 2016 Have friends in the Oak Island, Carolina Beach, Wilmington area, once the hurricane warnings went off everyone's phone went crazy in the malls and inside places like Walmart. Pretty bizarre situation this morning looking at Facebook vids. They are aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, Summey said: i'm seeing that as 65-85 Either way, it's gonna bring down trees around here. We got 11.37" of rain from Hermine at my house. There were other spots locally that saw upwards of 14" from that. Water levels have receeded, but they remain very high and the ground is saturated still. Add to that the .79" we got yesterday and what is coming, it's not going to take much to topple trees. I'm at 38.08" of rain at my house since June 1 (and 21.47" in September). I'm waiting to see if my kids evolve into having gills after this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Landfall from around savannah up to Charleston would not be surprising. Somewhere in there is going to take the brunt of the storm. JMO. Matt already would have to move east to avoid those spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Man that trough is tugging juuust enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looking back at models from yesterdays runs...they were to slow. Maybe because Matt is weaker. GFS is continuing that theme being a little quicker through 24. Looks to be very close to landfall at 24 at CHS. looks almost identical to 06Z so far at 500mb so it should turn right over ILM, exactly when and where that happens will have a huge impact on what kind of storm NC has on the inland....beaches are gonna take a decent thump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 concerning that gfs now shows landfall for chs, and the strongest winds are in the NE eyewall which will be pushing surge into the coast. adding in the excessive rainfall, there will be near catastrophic flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 15 minutes ago, tramadoc said: Thanks skywarn. The new hurricane warning is for Horry and Georgetown, SC and Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 There's going to be some huge rains this run for SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 7, 2016 Author Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: There's going to be some huge rains this run for SC/NC. it actually shows less on tropical tidbits, non-hi-res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 From ILM NWS office.... WE NOTICED WITH HURRICANE HERMINE LAST MONTH THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THAT EVENT OCCURRED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN A REGION WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL INTO DRIER AIR, CAUSING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND A SUBSEQUENT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP. THE SAME TYPE OF EVENT COULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF MATTHEW AS DRIER AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVY RAIN SHIELD. 00Z GFS SOUNDINGS VALID OVER FLORENCE AND MYRTLE BEACH SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ABOUT 1500 FEET AGL SATURDAY EVENING, WITH WINDS OF 60-75 MPH GETTING DUMPED DOWN INTO THIS MIXED LAYER FROM ALOFT. THIS KIND OF DETAIL IS NOT CURRENTLY IN OUR FORECASTS, BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A REGION OF EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND MATTHEW. THIS SAME REGION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MIGHT ARRIVE IN WILMINGTON AFTER MIDNIGHT. We gusted 50-55 here with Hermine and it was a weak TS....this is the 850 map its pretty similar on all the models. IF the above happens and we can mix these winds down after having 5-10" of rain it could be pretty bad on trees and stuff...this isnt for sure but if the soundings are right its certainly possible over most of inland NC and SC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: it actually shows less on tropical tidbits, non-hi-res Showing the 10 inch line close to wake county now. Sort of an IMBY post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Keep in mind...these notes. First that was a great bit of information from ILM regarding Hermine. Matthew could easily experience this same kind of transition.Two, it looks quite likely that Matthew will be an exceptionally prolonged event in SC/lower SE NC. Details have been discussed already with numerous posts and no need to rehash. Three..this is the first DIRECT effect of a hurricane on the GA coast since David in 1979! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: Keep in mind...these notes. First that was a great bit of information from ILM regarding Hermine. Matthew could easily experience this same kind of transition.Two, it looks quite likely that Matthew will be an exceptionally prolonged event in SC/lower SE NC. Details have been discussed already with numerous posts and no need to rehash. Three..this is the first DIRECT effect of a hurricane on the GA coast since David in 1979! I am thinking the east turn will be less sharp especially if he speeds up some, there really isnt anything that should cause that sudden of a turn I can see....I think the chances the center gets close to onshore near Charleston are pretty damn high now.....same with the center riding the SC coast north like he is doing to Florid, but I am starting to worry its gonna then comes in around SC/NC border and ride just inland in NC.....IF IF IF he can break north soon and cut up 100-150 miles east of GA the western side will have time to get its act together again and Charleston will have that right offshore by noon tomorrow and that will be the worst hit there in a long while....if it hugs the coast though Charleston lucks out...I struggle to find any winds even gusting to cane strength in Florida even on the coast, most places are looking at 50-70 tops so far... Finally have a TS warning for MBY now.....big changes from yesterday when the center was suppose to stay 250-300 miles south of me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 The rainfall totals on the 12z 13km GFS are very concerning..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, metwannabe said: The rainfall totals on the 12z 13km GFS are very concerning..... Yeah thats no good, that big of a area getting that kind of rain will cause flooding.....everywhere from the Triangle to the coast.... the hydro outlook for my neck of the woods.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Yeah thats no good, that big of a area getting that kind of rain will cause flooding.....everywhere from the Triangle to the coast.... the hydro outlook for my neck of the woods.... How far are you from the Tar river? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 can someone post the storm totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah thats no good, that big of a area getting that kind of rain will cause flooding.....everywhere from the Triangle to the coast.... the hydro outlook for my neck of the woods.... Wow! Would not take much more to push that to the major level..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: How far are you from the Tar river? around 3/4 mile or so.....but I am on the high side water didnt get even close to here in Floyd and 17-18 ft doesnt really get anyones home around here.....its gotta go 20+ to really mess stuff up....24ft+ and its a huge problem....that crest there would be good enough for #6 all time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, AJF0602 said: can someone post the storm totals? GFS GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Looks like 6 to 7 inches for wake county per the gfs/rgem blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 HWRF looks like a Charleston landfall.... turns back out over the ocean and then just off Bald Head Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Local news is running the text of a hurricane warning for inland areas of SC and SE NC, all the way back to just west of 95. It includes places like Darlington and Lumberton. NWS page is not showing it. Very odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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