Midnight Moon

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  1. FXUS62 KRAH 232337 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 736 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019 LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 320 PM Thursday... Hints of a large scale pattern change begin to be seen late Wed through Thu, when anomalous low heights over the Western US appear to finally rise and give way to falling heights over Canada that should help tamp down the Southeast ridge. This will allow energy over the Rockies to take on a more southern track eastward across the Carolinas with strengthening SW 850 mb flow helping to draw more moisture into NC.
  2. I'm in Zebulon and it was pouring and winds kicking about 20 mins ago. We've never lost power though it did flicker multiple times in the last 24 hrs. Seems to be settling down though.
  3. Look at that dry air coming in from the NW. Can't be good for this cane.
  4. The IR images show the skeleton and this hurricane is not doing well. Still ingesting dry air it looks like. From the north.
  5. From NHS Discussion: The satellite appearance of Matthew has become rather disheveled looking in infrared satellite imagery since the previous advisory. Land-based Doppler radar data indicate that Matthew has been going through an eyewall replacement cycle for the past 12 hours or so, but the inner eyewall has yet to dissipate within the 35-40 nmi wide outer eyewall. Both Doppler velocity data and recon SFMR surface winds and flight-level winds indicate that hurricane-force winds are and have been occuring within the outer eyewall just 5-10 nmi east of the Florida coastline. Although the central pressure has remained steady between 938-940 mb, the intensity has been lowered to 105 kt based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 118 kt and several patches of Doppler velocities of 120-122 kt between 5000-7500 feet.... Matthew is expected to slowly weaken some more during the next 12 hours or so while the cyclone completes the eyewall replacement cycle. By 24 hours and beyond, more significant weakening is expected due to the combination of strong southwesterly vertical shear increasing to more than 30 kt and entrainment of very dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 20 percent. The new intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN.
  6. Appreciate that. Time to get some sleep for more tracking tomorrow.
  7. 00z gfs takes this right over wilm, Carolina coasts take a beating. Gets up to Morehead city at hour 54. _____________ Intensity?
  8. According to Tropical Tidbits the larger eye-wall will interfere with further strengthening for a while. We'll see.
  9. I've decided to start watching the outer eye-wall instead of the inner eye-wall for trajectory. Less erratic.
  10. Glad to see the intensity is expected to lessen to around 85mph at 8pm Saturday.
  11. Yep, and the wind field is growing as the outer wall takes over.
  12. Interesting, how tropical tidbits points out how the inner eyewall is "orbiting" around the inside of the outer eyewall creating a deceptive erratic path. Probably what's throwing folks off.
  13. Town of Zebulon, NC is almost out of gas. Several stations now closed including Murphy's at WarMart. Filled up today before things got rough. Glad I have a 36 gallon tank.
  14. .30" of needed rain (Just N. of Zebulon, NC )