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PTC Matthew

PaEasternWX

By PaEasternWX,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

If you are a visitor to the forum, or a member who wants to know basic information about what a cat-4 landfall in eastern FL from this angle (southeast) might be like, I've posted a summary in the BANTER thread (it's long and I wanted to keep the flow going here). 

Check it out if you're wondering about the situation for yourself or family/friends. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49023-hurricane-matthew-banter-thread/

 

 

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jburns said:

When someone posts an outdated map it doesn't help when multiple people repost it to tell them it is outdated.  There are multiple mods in this thread. It will get taken care of.

There might be a bug in the site, because I imported it right. Tell WOW to look into it. 

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Latest IR shows a ragged but closed eyewall. No more of that ugly half ring BS.

Tell us how you really feel about the structure earlier today. :)

We're still at least 45 minutes from another center pass from the AF aircraft. NOAA plane is just getting back to Florida and should depart after midnight for another mission. ADT raw and adjusted numbers are rising back into the 6+ category.

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Will - Rutgers

Will - Rutgers

Posted
Posted

Given that the NHC track has a razor's edge between the eye and a landfall any dozens of spots on the east coast, these wobbles are intense to follow.  You could imagine a situation where a convective tower goes up at the wrong place and wrong time for a lot of people.

This storm is a brutal test of our emergency response infrastructure and weather forecasting capabilities.

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rockchalk83

rockchalk83

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WeatherFan202 said:

OT but I feel like I must say this. Why aren't we in storm mode. Now back on topic. Why did they just lower it to 100 knots if aircraft is not able to find anything above 95.

There has to be some balancing of what the aircraft is reporting vs. the public message. If the weakening is only temporary and you are expecting a major hurricane on its closest approach, then why weaken it & cause the public to become lazy in their preps? It is a fine line for NHC to walk. 

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

OT but I feel like I must say this. Why aren't we in storm mode. Now back on topic. Why did they just lower it to 100 knots if aircraft is not able to find anything above 95.

Intensity loss is expected to be short term (a few hours). Societal impacts play a big role as well this close to a major landfall.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

It really looks like it is starting to get its act together.

It has been giving signs for a while now.  On the satellite I am viewing I can most definitely see the center crank on latest frames.  While this might not be a high-end Cat4/Cat5 run, I think we are in an okay place for quick development.   Plus, LakeEffectKing has spoken, and thinks it will have a good run tonight.

Here is the link I am currently using - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATRAPID/satloop.html

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted
OT but I feel like I must say this. Why aren't we in storm mode. Now back on topic. Why did they just lower it to 100 knots if aircraft is not able to find anything above 95.

Hypothetical here, but I'd like to think there are more than weather weenies following this hurricane. If you are a lead forecaster and you see an obvious reorganizational trend and impending intensification phase in a system that may be temporarily weaker, you can understand that not just scientifically, but ethically, as a responsible agency for public safety being its number one priority, do you shave off that lag time for reintensification or contribute to possible complacency? In a system that is a major landfall threat?

Just me but I'd hold out for the next recon. We can go back in reanalysis and make adjustments for posterity.

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bdgwx

bdgwx

Posted
Posted

What I see in the satellite presentation right now is a great outflow to the NW, good to the SE, and decent to the W. The upper level high currently over Matthew looks good and the GFS suggests that it will continue to look good and possibly even improve over the next 12-24 hours. Wind shear looks favorable and should continue to be favorable until Matthew approaches SE Florida where modeling suggests it may start becoming unfavorable. The potential energy stored in the waters around the Bahamas is quite high as others have pointed out. Nicole is pretty far from Matthew, but there still may be some subtle, probably minor, negative influence from it. Is it effecting the outflow on the east side? Overall it looks like the environment is characterized by above average favorability for intensification IMHO. The HWRF and GFDL do fall inliine with the general idea that intensification is expected with another 20mb or so of deepening. I don't think a cat 4 is a given, but I do think it is likely.

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LovintheWhiteFluff

LovintheWhiteFluff

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

What I see in the satellite presentation right now is a great outflow to the NW, good to the SE, and decent to the W. The upper level high currently over Matthew looks good and the GFS suggests that it will continue to look good and possibly even improve over the next 12-24 hours. Wind shear looks favorable and should continue to be favorable until Matthew approaches SE Florida where modeling suggests it may start becoming unfavorable. The potential energy stored in the waters around the Bahamas is quite high as others have pointed out. Nicole is pretty far from Matthew, but there still may be some subtle, probably minor, negative influence from it. Is it effecting the outflow on the east side? Overall it looks like the environment is characterized by above average favorability for intensification IMHO. The HWRF and GFDL do fall inliine with the general idea that intensification is expected with another 20mb or so of deepening. I don't think a cat 4 is a given, but I do think it is likely.

I believe it to be the mountains in Cuba disturbing it, but I could be wrong.

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Drz1111

Drz1111

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, arizonasooner said:

Yeah I can't see an serious intensification occurring until it gets further away from Cuba. I think tomorrow morning is when the structure will have a chance to return.

Curious, given that there are no mountains in the part of Cuba that Matthew has been near all day.  Outside of its eastern tip, Cuba's terrain isn't particularly high or rugged - it's much, much flatter than Hispaniola.

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Will - Rutgers

Will - Rutgers

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, arizonasooner said:

Yeah I can't see an serious intensification occurring until it gets further away from Cuba. I think tomorrow morning is when the structure will have a chance to return.

I don't think you are going to need to wait that long, this thing looks like it is absolutely cranking right now.  Convection gaining symmetry and the eye is clearing out.

Hard to RI when you start from such a strong baseline but I don't think it is nearly out of the question.

Terrible, terrible situation for Nassau.

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted
Curious, given that there are no mountains in the part of Cuba that Matthew has been near all day.  Outside of its eastern tip, Cuba's terrain isn't particularly high or rugged - it's much, much flatter than Hispaniola.



Matthew is already far enough away from Cuba that land influences are virtually non-existent compared to the already established conducive environmental support right now.
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arizonasooner

arizonasooner

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Curious, given that there are no mountains in the part of Cuba that Matthew has been near all day.  Outside of its eastern tip, Cuba's terrain isn't particularly high or rugged - it's much, much flatter than Hispaniola.

Any land is far rougher (friction-wise) than open water, so that's why I've thought it hasn't got going earlier today. But it may be getting far enough away now to start bombing out. I'm sitting here in Orlando doing the waiting game with a few million others right now. The last two extended power outages I experienced were from an ice storm in Tulsa and a massive monsoon thunderstorm in Phoenix. Hope we don't have a third one here...

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, arizonasooner said:

Any land is far rougher (friction-wise) than open water, so that's why I've thought it hasn't got going earlier today. But it may be getting far enough away now to start bombing out. I'm sitting here in Orlando doing the waiting game with a few million others right now. The last two extended power outages I experienced were from an ice storm in Tulsa and a massive monsoon thunderstorm in Phoenix. Hope we don't have a third one here...

Sitting here in Gainesville wondering the same, based on the same ... unfortunately, NWS is not up to the minute like this place is (or can be)

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