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WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones


1900hurricane
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11 hours ago, Chinook said:

Typhoon Hinnamnor regained 85 knot strength and an eye showed up recently on infrafred imagery

xyETBml.jpg

 

When Typhoon Hinnamnor approaches South Korea, it might be interesting to use GRLevel3/ Radarscope to view these two radar locations in South Korea.

eVvFf5m.jpg

 The latest forecast has max winds at 90 knots when hitting SE S Korea/Busan near 0Z on Sept 6th. If this verifies, it would be near the worst on record there.

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11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The latest forecast has max winds at 90 knots when hitting SE S Korea/Busan near 0Z on Sept 6th. If this verifies, it would be near the worst on record there.

The JTWC latest update says 95 knots in the vicinity of Busan. That does sound quite bad. Also, consider Korea is pretty far north and does not get too many tropical cyclones.

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This is the only time I've been able to use Korean radar (available through the US Military bases, I believe) to track a typhoon. Typhoon Hinnamnor has tracked right by Jeju Island, South Korea, close to the forecasts. JTWC had the intensity at 100 knots at a time of 12z.

 

west Jeju Island:

RKPM 051348Z 36042G063KT 3200 -RA BR BKN005 BKN080 25/24 A2871 RMK CIG005
RKPM 051027Z 10036G067KT 3200 RA BR OVC010 25/24 A2896 RMK CIG010

 

ez2LMAg.png

 

OtRjGoT.jpg

vVhv6Be.jpg

nIJqvbw.png

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Wind gusts at Busan, South Korea, bumped up to minimal hurricane force, 64 knots

RKPK 051900Z 11035G64KT 1600 +RA BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC030 27/25 Q0979
RKPK 051800Z 11037G47KT 3200 +RA BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC030 27/25 Q0984

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Typhoon Muifa is heading directly into Shanghai China soon. Typhoon Muifa, 85 knots, as per JTWC most recent analysis.

Wikipedia:

With a population of 24.89 million as of 2021, Shanghai is the most populous urban area in China with 39,300,000 inhabitants living in the Shanghai metropolitan area

 

2wnPVZ4.jpg

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Here is a non-tropical storm with hurricane force winds and impressively low pressures (for any time of year) to impact Aleutian Islands, and areas up to Nome. (Forecast for Nome has winds of 45mph gusting to 70mph)

wIHhH19.png

 

 

this storm previously had been Typhoon Merbok but transitioned to extratropical at about the time shown here:

npKMAtr.png

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5 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

115 knots approaching Kyushu is not chopped liver.

Now JTWC has analyzed this to be 135 knots, which I believe is just below Cat-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Today's HWRF (12z) showed up to 130 knots at 850mb as it approaches an island close to the coast that has mountains that could feel the 130 knots.

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On 9/4/2022 at 11:14 AM, Chinook said:

The JTWC latest update says 95 knots in the vicinity of Busan. That does sound quite bad. Also, consider Korea is pretty far north and does not get too many tropical cyclones.

Yes Korea is considered the equivalent of NJ as far as SST and hurricane impacts are concerned.

 

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Pretty ludicrous tbh. it appears the models missed a little short-wave ridge north of it. 

16 hours ago, eyewall said:

Yeah the forecasting on this one has been pretty awful all around. Absolutely unbelievable.

Said short-wave ridging did two things. Typhoon turned left with RI. Andrew pulled a stunt like that east of Florida.

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10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow will this be as bad as Haiyan was there?

I hope this doesn't sound dumb, but Super Typhoon Haiyan set a record, I believe with satellite-estimated 195mph winds, (with 1-minute winds, JTWC-American style) and it directly affected Tacloban city, with a storm surge that came in almost as fast as a tsunami. So, yeah, I can't think of anything more devastating. according to Wikipedia:

Quote

 Thereafter, Haiyan continued to intensify; at 12:00 UTC on November 7, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded the storm's maximum ten-minute sustained winds to 230 km/h (145 mph), the highest in relation to the storm. The Hong Kong Observatory put the storm's maximum ten-minute sustained winds at 285 km/h (180 mph)[5] prior to landfall in the central Philippines, while the China Meteorological Administration estimated the maximum two-minute sustained winds at the time to be around 78 m/s (280 km/h or 175 mph). At the same time, the JTWC estimated the system's one-minute sustained winds at 315 km/h (195 mph), unofficially making Haiyan the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed based on wind speed, a record which would later be surpassed by Hurricane Patricia in 2015 at 345 km/h (215 mph).[6]

Syper Typhoon Noru--I don't believe I've ever heard of a storm that went from 50mph to 155mph in official (satellite) analysis in roughly 24 hours (correct?) I watched a 16-hour loop on Tropical Tidbits yesterday and that showed pretty much the entire development cycle.  

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17 hours ago, Chinook said:

I hope this doesn't sound dumb, but Super Typhoon Haiyan set a record, I believe with satellite-estimated 195mph winds, (with 1-minute winds, JTWC-American style) and it directly affected Tacloban city, with a storm surge that came in almost as fast as a tsunami. So, yeah, I can't think of anything more devastating. according to Wikipedia:

Syper Typhoon Noru--I don't believe I've ever heard of a storm that went from 50mph to 155mph in official (satellite) analysis in roughly 24 hours (correct?) I watched a 16-hour loop on Tropical Tidbits yesterday and that showed pretty much the entire development cycle.  

The other thing with Haiyan which I found amazing (not in a good way) was it's large size.  We typically don't see such a large physical size with storms of such extreme intensity.  The West Pac can sustain them much better than the Atlantic can of course.

 

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