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All-purpose Thunderstorm Discussion Thread


weatherwiz

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I'll add more to this when I am in my laptop, however, we could see some strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow although the highest likelihood could be just west but some recent data suggest even western/central MA and CT could be included.

Lapse rates may be better north and west, however, high dews and Sfc heating would allow for some decent MLcape values (1000-2000 J) and shear, while not overly impressive is adequate enough to help sustain updrafts and organized activity. It also appears there could be some good low-level backing to o along with increasing low-level shear so maybe a few supercells as well

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Yeah this is worth watching. Timing is a bit late for us but I think there are a few things that could make this quite interesting with nice low level shear and decent mid level lapse rates

 

always seems to come to that, doesn't it - 

 

seems over the years, ...soon as an AFD mentioned words to the affect of, "...LIMITING FACTOR BEING MODEST ML LR" ... may as well close the blinds until next time. 

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Yeah this is worth watching. Timing is a bit late for us but I think there are a few things that could make this quite interesting with nice low level shear and decent mid level lapse rates.

Yeah I'm not so sure how the timing is going to work out for us but it will be close. Steepening lapse rates and increasing shear could keep a threat for a couple strong to severe storms into the early overnight here.

Looking at the observed OKX and ALB soundings they aren't all that impressive looking...OKX does have some nice backing, however, if you look off to the west you see much better soundings which does bode well later on (stronger shear and steeper lapse rates working in).

It is interesting though how the ALb and OKX soundings aren't spitting out much cape for later on. Looks like a pocket of mlvl warmth could hurt lapse rates a tad and maybe have a slight negative affect on cape?

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