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Roger Smith

2016 NATL tropical season (hurricanes & tropical storms) contest

By Roger Smith, in Tropical Headquarters

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Roger Smith   

Roger Smith
Posted

(edit for Alex in January and Bonnie in May)

 

After reviewing how the 2015 contest went, we will go with the same format as last year.

 

Here's the simplified version of how to enter:

 

 

1. Enter your seasonal forecast (named storms / hurricanes / major hurricanes) in this thread before 06z June 1st, with 1% per day reductions in score for late entries. This portion of the contest is worth 50% of the total score but will also be tabulated in order of finish. Please note that in January, Alex reached hurricane status, the count after Bonnie as of late May 28th is already 2/1/0. Forecasts issued before May 28th and my post on that date will be reviewed to see if they need 1/1/0 added as we will go with the seasonal total that includes Alex. For the forecasts posted after May 28th, it will be assumed these include Alex. All seasonal forecasts will need to account for Bonnie as I think most have already done.

 

2. If you want to enter a specific June forecast, add it to your seasonal. If you want to pre-set your monthly forecasts for the entire season, add them all. NOV-DEC will count as one forecast, otherwise it would be JUN, JUL, AUG, SEP, OCT and NOV-DEC. If you do not enter monthlies, you will be assigned provisional but fully-scoring estimates based on your seasonal weighted from this "contest normal" which is adjusted from last year as we already have Alex, and we have now (as of May 29th) had the May storm (Ana 2015, Bonnie 2016) that we had to work around in 2015. Now that one has formed this year, the seasonal will go back to 16 8 3 and your seasonal forecast should account for Bonnie. Although last year was a lower total than the normal it did not bring down the averages enough to change them.

 

_________________________ SEASON __ JAN _ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG_ SEP _ OCT_ N-D

 

Adjusted Normal 1989-2015____ 16_8_3 __ 110 _ 100__100__100__421__531__321__000

 

Your assigned monthlies will be adjusted from these as required, and you will see them in the table of forecasts -- if your June forecast does not match the provisional then the other months will not be adjusted, so your monthlies might not add up. Some of you will probably want to enter each month like last year, and you only need to do that if you don't want to use the already posted provisional.

 

 

3. Then if you want to update your monthly forecasts to fit your own estimate, the table will change to reflect your forecasts, but future provisionals will continue to appear unchanged and your ongoing total may continue to be different from your seasonal as a result. There is no requirement for monthly entrants to match their seasonals and monthlies. There will not be any scoring adjustments available for seasonal updates, you can make them, but the contest will not award any different scores for them.

 

4. Seasonal forecasts are scored from a maximum of 50 points, reduced by the average of one point per error in each category plus that number squared. Example, you predict 11/6/2 and reality is 14/7/4. You then lose (3+9)/2 or 6 points for your named storms, (1+1)/2 or one point for your hurricanes and (2+4)/2 or 3 points for your major hurricanes. Your score is then 50-6-1-3 or 40.

 

5. Monthly forecasts are scored the same way as above from totals available of 4 (June), 6 (July), 12 (August), 16 (September), 10 (October) and 2 (Nov-Dec) except that June, July and Nov-Dec error reductions are divided by two (e.g., if the normal method would give you 3.0 out of 6.0 for July, the adjusted method gives you 4.5. Monthly forecasts that you submit are subject to 1% reductions for every 3h late (the deadline is 03z of 1st each month). These late penalties will be doubled as soon as a named storm exists in the month in question. The June deadline, however, may be extended slightly to encourage more entries unless named storms are imminent. Expect an absolute cutoff by end of June 3rd with penalties after that.

 

 

FAQ _ Should I include any May named storm in my seasonal forecast? __ Yes, you are basically forecasting the normal season plus the 1/0/0 for May and you should also include Alex (1/1/0) from January 2016.

 

What if I (or the NWS) forecast a range? __ The contest will take the median of your various ranges and score those only. If you want to give decimals, we'll score from those.

 

What if I report on a forecast from elsewhere? __ Unless you are involved in making that forecast, then we'll score it but it won't count in the standings. If you are involved in it and want to enter it, make it clear that it's your personal entry.

 

What month does each named storm belong to? __ Each named storm belongs to whatever month it was first named in (according to the NWS conventions as to time zones etc). Then whatever that storm goes on to do will belong to that same month. So for example, a tropical storm named on Aug 31 will count in the August forecast for all of its exploits as a hurricane or major hurricane in September. The timing of any given storm receiving a number but not a name is irrelevant to the contest.

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

Good luck. Defending champ is Troy1234 with Stebo the winner in 2014.

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Roger Smith   

Roger Smith
Posted

Note to those predicting May -- I won't be tabulating any forecasts until June 4th at the earliest. Anyone is free to edit their May forecasts and seasonal forecasts before then. As there has been a May tropical storm, it won't count in the monthly portion of the scoring,  the only difference it will make to the contest will be to change the baseline normal from 15/8/3 to 16/8/3 (or 16/9/3 if it becomes a hurricane). (post edited re Alex in January and Bonnie in May).

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Tom   

Tom
Posted

19/9/2

 

May      1/0/0

June     2/1/0

July      3/2/0

Aug      5/2/0

Sept     5/3/2

Oct       3/1/0

Nov      0/0/0

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BTRWx   

BTRWx
Posted

8/5/1

May 0/0/0

June 1/0/0

July 2/1/0

August 4/3/1

September 1/1/0 (2/1/0 as of Aug 30)

October 0/0/0 (1/0/0 as of Sep 29)

November 0/0/0

December 0/0/0

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dmillz25   

dmillz25
Posted

Note to those predicting May -- I won't be tabulating any forecasts until June 4th at the earliest. Anyone is free to edit their May forecasts and seasonal forecasts before then. If there is a May tropical storm, it won't count in the scoring, the only difference it will make to the contest will be to change the baseline normal from 14/7/3 to 15/7/3 (or 15/8/3 if it became a hurricane).

Bump

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Roger Smith   

Roger Smith
Posted

Hey, when I saw that they had named the current storm T.D. Two, I went back into the 2016 thread and remembered we had Alex in January (1/1/0), oops ...

 

Nobody who already posted needs to take any action there, the contest will add 1/1/0 to all forecasts already posted to account for Alex and go with the seasonal total that includes Alex. I will assume that anyone who posts a seasonal forecast after this post will have included Alex, but if their posted numbers appear to ignore Alex I may at least contact them to find out and will increase their numbers in the table of forecasts if they didn't spot this discussion. I have now edited in better instructions about Alex in post number one.

 

For those who already posted, don't edit your posts to include Alex, unless you add wording to indicate that. I will not be reading those posts anyway until some time in June (except I did do a quick tour of them and found no wording to indicate awareness of Alex, all seasonals appear to be sums of monthlies from May onwards, how quickly we forget). I imagine people will check in again when they notice that "T.D. Two" designation, so once again, either edit your post with specific wording about Alex, or take no action and expect me to add 1/1/0 to your seasonals.

 

My forecast for the season (including Alex and T.D. two) will be 19/13/4

 

(May 1/0/0) _ June 1/1/0 _ July 2/1/0 _ August 4/2/1 _ Sept 5/5/2 _ Oct 3/3/1 _ Nov-Dec 2/0/0

 

Note to all previous entrants -- now that Bonnie has formed, it is up to you to adjust your seasonal, if you do that, please also add 1/1/0 for Alex back in January. You can edit without penalty until I cut off entries around June 3rd.

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Eyewall2005   

Eyewall2005
Posted
donsutherland1, on 23 May 2016 - 1:24 PM, said:

 

16/9/5

May 1/0/0

June 1/1/0

July 0/0/0

August 4/2/1

September 6/3/3

October 3/2/1

November 1/1/0

 

Woah some big numbers being posted here.. Don id love to here your take on why you expect this season to be so active. Plenty of mixed signals right now. Thx.

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Roger Smith   

Roger Smith
Posted

We're getting up towards the usual number of entries, but I will leave the contest open for entries until end of June 2nd unless there is any action. As soon as the NWS starts tracking a June storm, penalties will begin but for now, to get a full field, I will suspend penalties on both seasonal and June entries until end of June 2nd. This also means anyone who entered already can edit your forecasts on the same basis. You don't need to state that you have edited, as the table of forecasts will be constructed on June 3rd, based on whatever you have posted at that time.

 

Once again, I will mention that any forecasts which appear to have overlooked Alex and/or Bonnie will have their seasonal numbers adjusted to fit since everyone has this information available. The Alex part of this was more my fault than yours (early entrants) so I will adjust the numbers to add up.

 

If you didn't spot this detail, your monthly predictions are entered automatically if you don't provide any, based on your seasonal and scaled to fit normal values. I hope to have the NWS forecast (median) for the contest too.

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