Brian5671 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Office water cooler talk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 the -nao is still there but the area of low heights beneath the block has been trending smaller and smaller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 With 12 months in a row above the 1981-2010 averages it is obvious that those averages are not meaningful for today's climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 The recent much above normal readings since mid-month has now made it very likely that April will become the 10th consecutive month with warmer than normal temperatures in New York City (based on the latest MOS estimates coupled with the monthly temperatures to date). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 No matter how hard the month tried to stay BN it can't in today's climate. We really have to reconsider the baselines nowadays because they're getting squashed in today's climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 HRRR with the best idea so far this pm with the convection remaining well north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 No matter how hard the month tried to stay BN it can't in today's climate. We really have to reconsider the baselines nowadays because they're getting squashed in today's climate. What would the benefit be of reconsidering the baseline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Been lightly raining for hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 NYC back to +0.7 for the month after the first two week cool stretch since March 2015. But the big story is that the high temperature potential was muted by the very strong blocking patterns. The monthly high of 82 was among the coolest of the 2000's for April so far. The low of 26 was the coldest in NYC during April since 1995 and establishes a new monthly low for the 2000's. So despite all the warmth recently, we were still able to set new monthly lows for the 2000's with the -1 in February and the 26 in April. That's the power of blocking even in a record warm background pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 .18 of precip here-enough to knock down the dust and pollen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 .18 of precip here-enough to knock down the dust and pollen. I don't know exactly how much I got here but it was way more than that. We had periods of intense downpours and hours of steady moderate to heavy rain. It was well needed though, soil moisture had dropped to the point that the forest floor was not just dusty on the surface it was deep and loose dry dirt. Now that things are leafing out it will hold some of the moisture in which is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 I don't know exactly how much I got here but it was way more than that. We had periods of intense downpours and hours of steady moderate to heavy rain. It was well needed though, soil moisture had dropped to the point that the forest floor was not just dusty on the surface it was deep and loose dry dirt. Now that things are leafing out it will hold some of the moisture in which is a good thing. looking at radar history, N and W did alot better...the action died as it moved S and E. We just missed a big storm here to our north last evening. Incredibly dry here the last 2 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 .18 of precip here-enough to knock down the dust and pollen. Very well needed, and it definitely helped ease the dust and pollen. .25" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Just 0.11" here and now 1.19" for the month...looks like a couple more opportunities for rain this coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Month to date : Central Park: 1.16" Islip: 1.61" JFK: 1.05" LaGuardia: 1.20" Bridgeport: 2.00" Newark: 0.95" ( near record low ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 .28" in my old plastic gauge, .30" in my new digital one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 That rain yesterday was very spotty. I just went through the record for yesterday at KDXR which is only about 20 miles from me and when I was under a torrential downpour they were reporting mostly cloudy and an hour later they reported a t-storm in the vicinity and I was under it but they only got .001" for that hour. For a 6 hour period they reported .16" and I was experiencing moderate rainfall for four hours out of the six hour period with embedded bursts of heavier showers that lasted for a few minutes at a time. HPN also seems to have missed the t-storm entirely (like brian said) and only reported light rain/mist most of the rest of the time. My buddy up in Sherman CT said he got a few rounds of pretty significant rain but also missed the real heavy stuff but it sounds like he likely ended up with more than Danbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 NYC is currently sitting at the top of the driest March and April list on record. It will be interesting to see how much more NYC can pick up before the month is over. NYC.....2.49 through today Top 5 driest MAR/APR for NYC #1...3.32...1985 #2...3.55...1995 #3...3.63...1966 #4...3.83...1915 #5...4.01...1935 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 NYC back to +0.7 for the month after the first two week cool stretch since March 2015. But the big story is that the high temperature potential was muted by the very strong blocking patterns. The monthly high of 82 was among the coolest of the 2000's for April so far. The low of 26 was the coldest in NYC during April since 1995 and establishes a new monthly low for the 2000's. So despite all the warmth recently, we were still able to set new monthly lows for the 2000's with the -1 in February and the 26 in April. That's the power of blocking even in a record warm background pattern. in other words it takes historic blocking just to get below normal temps nowadays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 in other words it takes historic blocking just to get below normal temps nowadays Exactly..That was the case last JFM with the record block over Western North America and the record cold here. The rest of the Northern Hemisphere outside our small region was near record levels of warmth at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 in other words it takes historic blocking just to get below normal temps nowadays a mount pinatubo or even bigger eruption will cool the earth ,, we need more volcanic eruptions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 The Euro shows subtropical development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Looks like any further potential for record heat like we saw in early March will have to wait. 0z ensembles continue to take the -AO to near record levels for the last week of April. So no record heat on the horizon at least through the first week of May due to the very strong blocking. Be interesting to see how long this impressive blocking pattern keeps a lid on the record warmth potential. Last summer all the record heat waited until the second half of August into September when the strong blocking finally faded. But it's difficult to forecast those kind of specifics beyond a week to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Looks like any further potential for record heat like we saw in early March will have to wait. 0z ensembles continue to take the -AO to near record levels for the last week of April. So no record heat on the horizon at least through the first week of May due to the very strong blocking. Be interesting to see how long this impressive blocking pattern keeps a lid on the record warmth potential. THU MAR 10 2016...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 79 DEGREES WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY TODAY.THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 74 SET IN 2006. Bring on the cooler weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Big difference between the Nam and gfs on the 6z run for tuesday...Nam has us well into the 70's at 1800, gfs is around 50 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Big difference between the Nam and gfs on the 6z run for tuesday...Nam has us well into the 70's at 1800, gfs is around 50 degrees. The 6z GFS MOS has a high of 48°. The 0z NAM MOS was 76°. My guess is that the 0z GFS MOS probably offers a more realistic scenario at 66°, though it might be a little on the warm side. It will be interesting to see how things turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Bring on the cooler weather Not hitting record highs here is the new cool. Should see the biggest AO/NAO drop since January. While an early May blizzard like late Jan isn't in the cards, maybe we can see a decent storm to dent the dry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Amazing how normal to slightly above normal temps are talked as a cool shot..same refrain the last few weeks and ive seen very warm days in this period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 donsutherland1, on 24 Apr 2016 - 09:44 AM, said:donsutherland1, on 24 Apr 2016 - 09:44 AM, said:The 6z GFS MOS has a high of 48°. The 0z NAM MOS was 76°. My guess is that the 0z GFS MOS probably offers a more realistic scenario at 66°, though it might be a little on the warm side. It will be interesting to see how things turn out. 12z gfs warmer now again...either way temps look to drop quickly into the 40's by later at night...This is for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Amazing how normal to slightly above normal temps are talked as a cool shot..same refrain the last few weeks and ive seen very warm days in this period These 30 year averages are no longer realistic. A 15 year cycle would be more reasonable if near normal is considered BN and every month has been AN even with strong blocking in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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