wxsniss Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 The dryslot will really enhance the band to the NW of it. You could literally go from dim sun to S+ in 5 miles. You can see that upstream in Michigan now Best band in Michigan is roughly 100-150 miles north of peak vorticity in Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 fwiw 18z RGEM snowfall maps ticked south... jacks MA-CT border up to pike... These ticks north/south are probably within noise. as posted earlier, the hourly CMC plots still bring that intense parting CCB into Boston area around 12z Sunday I thought synoptically it looked slightly north of 12z...but the QPF maps jacked the pike just south of ORH....but look how wide the warning criteria snow is...that's more than the width of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Hailing pretty good!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Some of tomorrow is intense low level convergence too. Maybe RGEM is showing that. Either way, 10-20 mile wobbles will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Actually that RGEM map is contaminated partially by Monday's snow now...the 12z run wasn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Ground starting to cover awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Not a bad map, though I'd probably extend the 4" back to the west into the Berks. I think they'll do fairly well...might offset slightly less QPF with better BL. I had considered that--along with perhaps some cooler ground which perhaps could boost accumulations the length of Kevin's hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Hailing pretty good!!!!! Nice. I think you're supposed to include hail in your totals if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 there's actually an outside shot that extreme pressure perturbation in the atmosphere passing over southern NH and NE Mass would cause a lithospheric destablization along the quasi-dormant fault that exists there. It runs E from the Merrimack Valley some 200 naut miles out beneath the Atlantic. This same fault released a 6.3 (est) magnitude temblor in 1755. yup - That would cause problems for Back Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 hail" - really ... sure that's not grapple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Ray gone wild on the 18z GFS...that's like 0.7" of qpf in 6 hours...not bad for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Congrats Dudley on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 I thought synoptically it looked slightly north of 12z...but the QPF maps jacked the pike just south of ORH....but look how wide the warning criteria snow is...that's more than the width of MA. Yeah I'm guessing these 50 mile ticks all within noise anyway To Coastal's point about dry slot... Michigan obs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Damn I might have to take a trip to Boston tomorrow lol. NYC will only see snow squalls outta this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 hail" - really ... sure that's not grapple? The sps indicated pea-sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 The sps indicated pea-sized hail. Ditto here. Lasted a couple of minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Actually that RGEM map is contaminated partially by Monday's snow now...the 12z run wasn't Hey Will cmon out of the early 2000s, here ya go http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rgem&p=sn10_acc&rh=2016040218&fh=27&r=us_ne&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Ray gone wild on the 18z GFS...that's like 0.7" of qpf in 6 hours...not bad for the GFS. Toaster bath compared to other 18z models though. So much further N than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Graupel here in Monson. Pretty good gusts as the heavy precip. arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Definitely was hail hail" - really ... sure that's not grapple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 The sps indicated pea-sized hail. heh ...i still have my doubts. convective showers in cold pool times often have grapple in them, and SPC could easily just be deferring to known nomenclature rather than confusing a dumbed down consumer base - meaning the Jo Jacks that surf the web. the web is a far superior means for mass notification these modern times and so simplification for the lowest common denominator. or, it is hail, being produced at less than 10,000 foot cloud tops - interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Toaster bath compared to other 18z models though. So much further N than anything else. Two storm look, oh Hi MPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 heh ...i still have my doubts. convective showers in cold pool times often have grapple in them, and SPC could easily just be deferring to known nomenclature rather than confusing a dumbed down consumer base - meaning the Jo Jacks that surf the web. the web is a far superior means for mass notification these modern times and so simplification for the lowest common denominator. or, it is hail, being produced at less than 10,000 foot cloud tops - interesting... A lot of people are calling in hail reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Two storm look, oh Hi MPM But I've been told by MPM that it never snows there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 A lot of people are calling in hail reports Definitely pea sized hail here. Nice ground coating too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Nice start to the wild weekend. Hail covered parts of the mulch here a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 An extremely dangerous (for travel) aspect of this storm is still up in the air...but more than half the guidance show it for almost everyone...a flash freeze. Some other guidance only has it for the hills. Temps could crash for a time into the upper 20s with the heavy snow after a start above freezing and with these snowfall rates, it reminds me of something like 3/8/05...just an all out sh**show. Thankfully though it's early on a Sunday morning. We'll have to monitor that...if temps hold closer to 32F, then the flash freeze part would be minimized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 An extremely dangerous (for travel) aspect of this storm is still up in the air...but more than half the guidance show it for almost everyone...a flash freeze. Some other guidance only has it for the hills. Temps could crash for a time into the upper 20s with the heavy snow after a start above freezing and with these snowfall rates, it reminds me of something like 3/8/05...just an all out sh**show. Thankfully though it's early on a Sunday morning. We'll have to monitor that...if temps hold closer to 32F, then the flash freeze part would be minimized. How much qpf do you anticipate being wasted by P-TYPE issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 More qpf waste the further south and lower in elevation you are it would seem, I would think a pretty fast flip up in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 How much qpf do you anticipate being wasted by P-TYPE issues? More qpf waste the further south and lower in elevation you are it would seem, I would think a pretty fast flip up in GC. Yeah very little QPF will be wasted in the Berks and ORH hills...even down in the CP I don't expect too much...it becomes heavy very quickly and with temps that cold aloft it can't stay rain very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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