Wild Weekend Weather- Disco 04/02-/04/03

[OceanStWx]

18z NAM definitely got a better look for down that way. Instead of BOS struggling with boundary layer issues until 12-13z, it crashes heights around 09z now. Like a 5^oC drop in an hour.

[ORH_wxman]

18z NAM definitely got a better look for down that way. Instead of BOS struggling with boundary layer issues until 12-13z, it crashes heights around 09z now. Like a 5^oC drop in an hour.

 

Nice TT of 56 at ORH at 09z...some flashes/rumbles looking likely.

[40/70 Benchmark]

fwiw 18z RGEM snowfall maps ticked south... jacks MA-CT border up to pike... 

 

These ticks north/south are probably within noise.

 

as posted earlier, the hourly CMC plots still bring that intense parting CCB into Boston area around 12z Sunday

I expect the best to pass south of me.

[Go Kart Mozart]

there's actually an outside shot that extreme pressure perturbation in the atmosphere passing over southern NH and NE Mass would cause a lithospheric destablization along the quasi-dormant fault that exists there.  It runs E from the Merrimack Valley some 200 naut miles out beneath the Atlantic.  This same fault released a 6.3 (est) magnitude temblor in 1755. 

 

yup -

So besides snownadoquakes, do shoreline people have to be on guard for Tsunamis?

[40/70 Benchmark]

What is Boston at on the season, 29"?

 

I need 11" to verify my seasonal call for Boston.....wouldn't that be some $hit.

[DFRI]

What are the thoughts for the PVD area or a little south of that?

[Damage In Tolland]

What time should we wake up for the start?

[powderfreak]

But I've been told by MPM that it never snows there

 

lol it still hasn't.  As of now its still fantasy snow.

[powderfreak]

Latest RAP just pummels Tolland to BOS and just to the south.

 

[moneypitmike]

Latest RAP just pummels Tolland to BOS and just to the south.

RAp.png

That map makes me want to puke. Scooter ftw?

[HoarfrostHubb]

I saw video from Chicopee. Def hail

[HoarfrostHubb]

That map makes me want to puke. Scooter ftw?

That the zone I called for earlier

[HoarfrostHubb]

What are the thoughts for the PVD area or a little south of that?

Windy. Squally. 2-4"

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ray gone wild on the 18z GFS...that's like 0.7" of qpf in 6 hours...not bad for the GFS.

For tmw?

[ORH_wxman]

For tmw?

 

Yeah most of it is actually in about 3 hours...that would be nuclear.

 

[powderfreak]

That map makes me want to puke. Scooter ftw?

That the zone I called for earlier

 

I think you guys pick up 2-3" regardless...with a chance at a higher 6 spot like everyone else... the progs have you guys pretty much starting as snow.  Though I don't blame you two for being skeptical after the past couple winters...in the same boat as the rest of us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah most of it is actually in about 3 hours...that would be nuclear.

 

I'm going 3-6" tmw.

 

What is the deal with Monday?

No wxbell and no time leaves me clueless

[ORH_wxman]

I think you guys pick up 2-3" regardless...with a chance at a higher 6 spot like everyone else... the progs have you guys pretty much starting as snow.  Though I don't blame you two for being skeptical after the past couple winters...in the same boat as the rest of us.

 

I don't think anyone should actually expect 6"...that's a really hard feat to pull in like 4 hours. There's a good chance someone may do it...but probably pretty localized. I do say that with some caution though given how ridiculously dynamic this is. But it is hard to ignore the time aspect. It is very fast moving.

[Damage In Tolland]

3:00 am - 8:00 am for wildest wx?

[powderfreak]

I don't think anyone should actually expect 6"...that's a really hard feat to pull in like 4 hours. There's a good chance someone may do it...but probably pretty localized. I do say that with some caution though given how ridiculously dynamic this is. But it is hard to ignore the time aspect. It is very fast moving.

 

That's true... I'm getting sucked into these ridiculous model solutions. 

 

Take the possible QPF/T-storm/convective aspect and throw in a lot of lift in the DGZ... if ratios get up into the 15:1 range despite SFC temps because its pounding 1" diameter dendrite aggregates that stack high it could definitely bust on the high side for snowfall in a narrow corridor.

 

Tough forecast.  But I could see this going to a like wet fluffy snow if that makes any sense.  Where you get 15:1 on the deck but like 6:1 on the driveway. 

[OceanStWx]

That's true... I'm getting sucked into these ridiculous model solutions. 

 

Take the possible QPF/T-storm/convective aspect and throw in a lot of lift in the DGZ... if ratios get up into the 15:1 range despite SFC temps because its pounding 1" diameter dendrite aggregates that stack high it could definitely bust on the high side for snowfall in a narrow corridor.

 

Tough forecast.  But I could see this going to a like wet fluffy snow if that makes any sense.  Where you get 15:1 on the deck but like 6:1 on the driveway. 

 

I mean if you take the NAM or GFS forecast soundings, once places like BOS begin to pound we're talking around -2C at 950 mb. The snow won't really know how warm the surface is until it gets there. Definitely not an isothermal type situation.

[Typhoon Tip]

I mean if you take the NAM or GFS forecast soundings, once places like BOS begin to pound we're talking around -2C at 950 mb. The snow won't really know how warm the surface is until it gets there. Definitely not an isothermal type situation.

 

Will and I were discussing that the other day that it had that kind of 33 F fluffy look to it all...  Like the warm razor layer at the surface but uber cold just off the deck ...  so high ratio snow depositing into a snow ball fight - 

[ORH_wxman]

While you don't want to get too bullish on snow amounts for a fast mover...it is also really hard to ignore the upper level look, so it's kind of conflicting signals.

 

 

I mean, this is about as potent and ideal a look you can get...this is the latest RAP at 7am tomorrow:

 

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Wow Will that is so dynamic, is awful how it can't slow down and how progressive it is.

[Typhoon Tip]

While you don't want to get too bullish on snow amounts for a fast mover...it is also really hard to ignore the upper level look, so it's kind of conflicting signals.

 

 

I mean, this is about as potent and ideal a look you can get...this is the latest RAP at 7am tomorrow:

 

 

 

 

it's a race...  that exit velocity is an azz hauler!   The single isopleth being kinked could be a clue that it's really shallow then ends ..for us anyway.  I wonder what it's doing over the ocean some 400 naut miles ENE of Logan - ha!

[wxsniss]

Yeah Ray strictly based on current guidance (and that's a significant caveat with a dynamic mesoscale process) I'd favor pike region over your area...

One thing I'm watching is if this system moves so fast that best rates just clip eastern areas... 18z RGEM and RAP hinted at this too though in its clown range

Anyway will be mobile for next few hrs, but should be a great night of nowcasting

[powderfreak]

I mean if you take the NAM or GFS forecast soundings, once places like BOS begin to pound we're talking around -2C at 950 mb. The snow won't really know how warm the surface is until it gets there. Definitely not an isothermal type situation.

And then throw 0.1-0.2" melted in the bucket per hour, even 2-4 hours of that will add up quick if it's pouring dendrites.

Even the snow doesn't have time to settle out when it's falling like that, so if you measure immediately when it shuts off and on an elevated white painted snowboard (think JSpin), you could be doing quite well all things considering.

I don't want to see any rulers in the grass though...that'll add a nice half inch to an inch, especially fluffy snow propped up on grass blades while it doesn't stick to the driveway.

[Randy4Confluence]

Looks like it gets wild within the next 30 minutes for lots of us with the clearly defined line of heavy rain moving in.

[OceanStWx]

While you don't want to get too bullish on snow amounts for a fast mover...it is also really hard to ignore the upper level look, so it's kind of conflicting signals.

 

 

I mean, this is about as potent and ideal a look you can get...this is the latest RAP at 7am tomorrow:

 

It's like how we talk about SWFEs all the time, widespread double digits are unlikely because of duration. Similarly, this system I would have a hard time arguing for more than a 3 to 6 hour window of snowfall. So you'll need to rip for all 6 hours to really get widespread warning criteria here. 

 

But it could be a wild 3-4" on a Saturday night, amiright? 

[Typhoon Tip]

using that radar mosaic loop ... this thing may actually be moving even faster than guidance by some...  it's hard to believe looking at it that this won't actually east of boston at dawn.