weatherwiz Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I mean these cells are getting 50 dBZ like 10 kft over the freezing level. I'm actually shocked we haven't really seen any larger hail reports...maybe not 1'' but like nickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 That pic from New Haven is incredible.. Looks like more than a coating too... Probably more hail than snow accumulation they'll get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 The NAM still has a few hundred to several hundred J of MUcape hugging southern CT around 6z. That is probably just ahead of the approaching precipitation but if some of that hangs around...yikes, Imagine if this vortmax had come a month from now and run through upstate NY. Carnage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 looks more like graupel in that pic than hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Sure that's not Grauple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 looks more like graupel in that pic than haillol same time,Dippin Dots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I mean there's a legit OFB pushing off those cells towards the north shore of LI. Noticed that, looks just like a classic trailing RFD gust front on the first one. Those cells are amazingly organized, given what they're working with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 This is very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Hard to see well in that pic, but it def looks like some graupel could be in there...it's kind of a graupel sounding with freezing heights around 850mb and -10C at 700mb...so there's def ice crystals forming and then probably falling through supercooled droplets below that. But you can also get hail too if the lift is enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 S of Pike wins again. I think you get plenty of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Sure that's not Grauple? not sure...I'm not there lol. I can't tell from the pics. Convective parameters though would suggest hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 The NAM still has a few hundred to several hundred J of MUcape hugging southern CT around 6z. That is probably just ahead of the approaching precipitation but if some of that hangs around...yikes, There is some cape around according to mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Imagine if this vortmax had come a month from now and run through upstate NY. Carnage. Don't give me fantasies lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I'm not saying you'll jackpot in this...but I'm not nearly convinced that you'll be mostly missed or fringed. There will definitely be an extra intense area pretty compact just north of the center...but I'm seeing more evidence for a larger commahead developing to the north. A place like Cape Ann would benefit that. Northern suburbs including Ray's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 There is some cape around according to mesoanalysis. ~250 J of SBcape down where the SVR's are in PA/NJ/MD...not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 ~250 J of SBcape down where the SVR's are in PA/NJ/MD...not bad! I'm pretty excited.... Probably just going to pull an all nighter LOL Just look at this... https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/716469879763808257 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Gfs is quite the nuke in the pike region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I'm pretty excited.... Probably just going to pull an all nighter LOL Just look at this... https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/716469879763808257 This is just going to be all kinds of fun. That line to the SW is actually (well has) intensified and should move into SNE in a few hours. Not sure if it will remain strong but we will go from like torrential downpours/thunder/lightning/hail (maybe) to heavy snow and thunder/lightning and winds. I can't contain myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Gfs is quite the nuke in the pike region.. The heavier snow axis has moved a bit south on the 0z GFS from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Gfs is quite the nuke in the pike region..4+ a real possibility for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Gfs is quite the nuke in the pike region.. I'll take that please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 GFS with a 2 storm foot plus PIKE NCT to Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Both are through 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 GFS with a 2 storm foot plus PIKE NCT to ScooterWatch next weekend produce too hahaMost fun all winter in April. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Im really excited for the wind. Gfs is ferocious here. 90kt 850mb in caa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 GFS with a 2 storm foot plus PIKE NCT to Scooter Everyone will see snow otg but JP expectations will disappoint some. The thump corridor will be narrow and nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 GFS with a 2 storm foot plus PIKE NCT to Scooter GFS says I nailed the winter outlook for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Both are through 72 hrs We obviously have not verified those totals but folks should appreciate the April snow on snow events, doesn't happen often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Im really excited for the wind. Gfs is ferocious here. 90kt 850mb in caa. That's nuts. I was just looking at 0z NAM bufkit for BDL and am I seeing that right...it has the tropopause as low as 10K tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 GFS says I nailed the winter outlook for Boston. TD's after the 2 minute warning still count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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