A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 man, purduewx80 is a badass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Updated WPC guidance has highest ice probs basically in the I-80 corridor, though they have kept amounts basically a tenth of an inch as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GRR forecast discussion sounds like they used ONLY the 12Z 4km NAM for their forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GRR forecast discussion sounds like they used ONLY the 12Z 4km NAM for their forecasts. ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 Euro ensemble mean looks like it goes just north of EVV. Variety among the members with some big dogs here and no rainers for Alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Euro ensemble mean looks like it goes just north of EVV. Variety among the members with some big dogs here and no rainers for Alek It seems a lot of the ensembles (GEFS, GEPS, AND EPS) are agreeing on a similar track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Watch a WV loop of today up until now. There are at least 3 distinct Pacific shortwaves that are most certainly not fully sampled by 12Z raobs. The lead wave will be at 00Z, as will a minor wave coming into northern CA this evening. The rear wave can be seen plain as day on WV imagery well offshore, much stronger than most if not all guidance. It will be coming ashore at 12Z tomorrow but is unlikely to be fully sampled even then. The 18Z GFS made the same corrections aloft as the NAM, with more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 Watch a WV loop of today up until now. There are at least 3 distinct Pacific shortwaves that are most certainly not fully sampled by 12Z raobs. The lead wave will be at 00Z, as will a minor wave coming into northern CA this evening. The rear wave can be seen plain as day on WV imagery well offshore, much stronger than most if not all guidance. It will be coming ashore at 12Z tomorrow but is unlikely to be fully sampled even then. The 18Z GFS made the same corrections aloft as the NAM, with more to go. It also seemed pretty meh on cold sector QPF NW of the sfc low as it crossed into IL. Even worse than the 12z run but again looked like convective feedback issues. Just looking at the tilt aloft you'd expect more precip back into the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z eps mean snowfall Ind members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z eps mean snowfall eps_snow_m_east_15.png Ind members eps_slp_lows_neng_12.png GFS with another tick north but that strong omega keeps us all/mostly snow. 11.9" per pivotwx kuchera map. With the arctic air locked in, I think as long as we can prevent this thing from track over/west of us, we've got a strong chance of our biggest storm of the season. Of course, Purduewx's thoughts are giving me pause to think that the westerly scenario is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Interesting that both 18z NAM and especially GFS popped an area of snow in south IN and southwest/south Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Pretty good snow for just the frontogenesis zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 4-8 inches for Green County, WI. Special Weather Statement sounded rather tentative, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 will have to make hay with the fronto up here as that looks to be the only player but could be a fun period. Not comforting being in the sweet spot so to say as there will be changes to come yet in placement and i fear it being south more euro like. but who knows. Been a blast tracking it though as was last weeks failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Pretty good snow for just the frontogenesis zone. About 1-2" should be subtracted for everywhere in DTX's CWA except along Port Huron-Detroit-Monroe corridor (from tonight and Monday night's shortwave). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Pretty good snow for just the frontogenesis zone. Hmm. No chance for error there at Toledo- GFS has nearly isothermal at 0C at Toledo, up to 6000ft or 7000ft above ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It also seemed pretty meh on cold sector QPF NW of the sfc low as it crossed into IL. Even worse than the 12z run but again looked like convective feedback issues. Just looking at the tilt aloft you'd expect more precip back into the cold air. More interested in the 18z GEFS than I'd normally be at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I was in Florida for the storm that just dropped 6 plus inches imby. Was out of town for the big 15-20 inch snow in early Feb last year. For those in northern Indiana..I am in town this week. Sorry no snow for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I was in Florida for the storm that just dropped 6 plus inches imby. Was out of town for the big 15-20 inch snow in early Feb last year. For those in northern Indiana..I am in town this week. Sorry no snow for you! lol. Snow nazi. How about a little ice and mixed stuff with just smattering to cover the ground at the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 After a day a like this, a snowstorm, especially a lot of snow, would be most unwelcome.... But, it is still winter, and it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 will have to make hay with the fronto up here as that looks to be the only player but could be a fun period. Not comforting being in the sweet spot so to say as there will be changes to come yet in placement and i fear it being south more euro like. but who knows. Been a blast tracking it though as was last weeks failure I couldn't tell you thought this at all......................... (end sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 EPS control mean is from just southwest of Terre Haute to Dayton about. GEFS members. Some big dogs in there! I'll take e17 please. Hard to believe we're talking snow right now with temps in the mid 60's here, sandwiched in between two winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I'll take e17 please. Hard to believe we're talking snow right now with temps in the mid 60's here, sandwiched in between two winter storms. In LESS than 2 weeks...we will have gone from snowcover, to temps in the 60s, to a snowstorm, to temps in the 60s, to potentially another winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I'll take e17 please. Hard to believe we're talking snow right now with temps in the mid 60's here, sandwiched in between two winter storms. Yeah really. e17 is great for you. e15 is good for both of us, I'll vote for that one. I think watches will be pulled fairly late for this system, due to it not being sampled until the middle of the day tomorrow. Might go straight to a warning in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yeah really. e17 is great for you. e15 is good for both of us, I'll vote for that one. I think watches will be pulled fairly late for this system, due to it not being sampled until the middle of the day tomorrow. Might go straight to a warning in some areas. If the 00z models can maintain the same consensus as today's 12z runs, and if the snow amounts increase a bit more, Watches will go out by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yeah really. e17 is great for you. e15 is good for both of us, I'll vote for that one. I think watches will be pulled fairly late for this system, due to it not being sampled until the middle of the day tomorrow. Might go straight to a warning in some areas. I'd be down for some e15. Quite a few amped up runs there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I couldn't tell you thought this at all......................... (end sarcasm) haha. yeah i'm sure you can't tell how pessimistic i am on this one. After last storm it's hard to feel any confidence until euro comes around if ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Still decent spread on the ensembles. Could see watches by morning if modes get there sh** together at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_9.png gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_10.png gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_11.png gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_12.png Slight tick south? I think it lost a few members that were trying to get the sfc low into SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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