Possible winter storm March 1st-2nd

[UMB WX]

Under what reasoning? Plenty of models show a good hit of snow for many location and as for the 4km NAM the precip plotting makes sense but it is too warm aloft which is common with it...

 

Guess what I was getting at is - I in the end believe most of us wont get in on both parts to double dip in to a real nice warning event.  I can definitely see areas to the east in the game for a juicy followup after sacrificing not scoring in the fronto snows the best.

 

In the end I feel something not a whole lot off of what 12z euro is showing.

[UMB WX]

I think the snow bands will expand to include most everyone in the end.

 

If we can just get the frontogenesis snow and some synoptic snow will be golden. 4km NAM is as close as any model has gotten.

Liking where I sit.

 

Yeah I just don't see any chance of that up here.. now south down by Chicago and maybe up to you i could see some syn snow.

[Thundersnow12]

In the end I feel something not a whole lot off of what 12z euro is showing.

Based on..?

[Geos]

Yeah I just don't see any chance of that up here.. now south down by Chicago and maybe up to you i could see some syn snow.

 

Keep in mind what purduewx said. The wave that will be this storm is probably being underestimated by models.

[ILSNOW]

NAM Model Run: 0Z FEB 29, 2016 Station ID: KORD Lat: 41.97 Long: -87.90

18z Nam .257 for Ohare

0z Nam =  .71 but .18 is for thursday.  

 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kord.txt

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Keep in mind what purduewx said. The wave that will be this storm is probably being underestimated by models.

 

Agreed there, some of the afternoon AFD's brought that up.

[UMB WX]

Based on..?

 

Just where my uneducated forecast has brought me at this point of pretty closely  and hr heavily tracking it.   I'm probably not making much sense but it is what it is and I'm pretty comfortable in a euro like solution here after the fronto snows.

 

I don't really have a clue whats going to happen after the fronto snows and most I imagine dont including nws employees. 

 

My focus is and always has been on where the fronto snows set up as that's all us to the north more (WI) were in the game for after the euro went away from its amped storm

[UMB WX]

Keep in mind what purduewx said. The wave that will be this storm is probably being underestimated by models.

 

 

O yeah for sure and I just love reading everybodys thoughts. I just strongly feel and believe since friday night it was just going to be a fronto event here with swings north and south to drive me enough nuts.  what happens after that with the low I've had no hope for so haven't really paid hardly any attention to the details like i have for round one.

[ILSNOW]

Chicago nws Izzi update

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
849 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...
849 PM CST

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERNS FOR A POTENTLY BAND OF
HEAVY SNOW EITHER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...OR FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS CURRENTLY A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. IN FACT...THE 00
UTC RAOBS INDICATED TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB OF -28C AT CYQD IN
MANITOBA...AND +1C AT KBIS. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THIS
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT...THEN SETTING IT
UP RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A POTENT PV ANOMALY...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INDUCE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA...POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP A VERY INTENSE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS OVER FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG FGEN AROUND THE 850 MB
LEVEL BENEATH A REGION OF -EPV AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY CERTAINLY CONTINUES WITH WHERE EXACTLY THIS
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BAND OF FGEN WILL SET UP...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SIGNS THAT IT COULD BE RIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SETUPS SUCH AS THESE CAN PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN NARROW BANDS...AND BECAUSE OF
THIS...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER AT
LEAST A SMALL NARROW PORTION OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG OR NORTH
OF I-88 COULD EXPERIENCE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 6 INCHES BY
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE WE VERY STRONGLY
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...WITH THE 00 UTC NAM AND SOME OF THE HIRES
GUIDANCE COMING IN WARMER...AND SUGGESTING MORE SLEET AND A BIT
FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVER PRECIP...WE WILL BE HOLDING
OFF ON THE WATCH TO AWAIT A LOOK AT THE 00 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. IF
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MATCH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...THEN
A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES IN
ILLINOIS.

STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK STABILITY AND EVEN
MODEST SLANT-WISE INSTABILITY TYPICALLY RESULTS IN NARROW INTENSE
BANDED PRECIP...WHICH GUIDANCE IS PRETTY STRONGLY DEPICTING
TOMORROW NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTS THIS F-GEN ZONE WILL MOVE LITTLE
TOMORROW NIGHT...SO MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM THERE COULD BE
SOME VERY TIGHT GRADIENTS IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...MUCH TIGHTER
THAN CAN BE PRECISELY DEPICTED IN GRIDS THIS FAR OUT. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY P-TYPE ISSUES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER
SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SUBSIDENCE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AT
THIS POINT IS WHERE EXACTLY THIS SETS UP.

AREAS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR COULD EXPERIENCE A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY TO CHANGE THINGS OVER TO SNOW. AS A RESULT...SNOW
AMOUNTS COULD END UP LIGHTER NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR.

KJB/IZZI

[Ottawa Blizzard]

It will be interesting to see what the Euro thinks. I am cautiously optimistic, but am wary, given the way this winter has gone. Wishing everyone in the sub-forum good luck with this storm!

[Hoosier]

RGEM
 

[homedis]

Chicago nws Izzi update

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

849 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...

849 PM CST

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO

TUESDAY AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERNS FOR A POTENTLY BAND OF

HEAVY SNOW EITHER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...OR FAR SOUTHERN

WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS CURRENTLY A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL

CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. IN FACT...THE 00

UTC RAOBS INDICATED TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB OF -28C AT CYQD IN

MANITOBA...AND +1C AT KBIS. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THIS

STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON

MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT...THEN SETTING IT

UP RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME

TIME...A POTENT PV ANOMALY...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY

PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD

OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INDUCE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER

THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND

FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY

INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA...POTENTIALLY

SETTING UP A VERY INTENSE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS OVER FAR NORTHERN

ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE

DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG FGEN AROUND THE 850 MB

LEVEL BENEATH A REGION OF -EPV AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY CERTAINLY CONTINUES WITH WHERE EXACTLY THIS

POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BAND OF FGEN WILL SET UP...THERE CONTINUES TO

BE SIGNS THAT IT COULD BE RIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SETUPS SUCH AS THESE CAN PRODUCE CONVECTIVE

HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN NARROW BANDS...AND BECAUSE OF

THIS...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER AT

LEAST A SMALL NARROW PORTION OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG OR NORTH

OF I-88 COULD EXPERIENCE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES...POSSIBLY

LEADING TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 6 INCHES BY

TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE WE VERY STRONGLY

CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR NORTHERN

ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...WITH THE 00 UTC NAM AND SOME OF THE HIRES

GUIDANCE COMING IN WARMER...AND SUGGESTING MORE SLEET AND A BIT

FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVER PRECIP...WE WILL BE HOLDING

OFF ON THE WATCH TO AWAIT A LOOK AT THE 00 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. IF

THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MATCH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...THEN

A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES IN

ILLINOIS.

STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK STABILITY AND EVEN

MODEST SLANT-WISE INSTABILITY TYPICALLY RESULTS IN NARROW INTENSE

BANDED PRECIP...WHICH GUIDANCE IS PRETTY STRONGLY DEPICTING

TOMORROW NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTS THIS F-GEN ZONE WILL MOVE LITTLE

TOMORROW NIGHT...SO MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM THERE COULD BE

SOME VERY TIGHT GRADIENTS IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...MUCH TIGHTER

THAN CAN BE PRECISELY DEPICTED IN GRIDS THIS FAR OUT. THE SOUTHERN

EXTENT OF THE SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY P-TYPE ISSUES

AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER

SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SUBSIDENCE ON THE COOL SIDE OF

THE FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AT

THIS POINT IS WHERE EXACTLY THIS SETS UP.

AREAS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR COULD EXPERIENCE A

WINTRY MIX BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT

OR EARLY TUESDAY TO CHANGE THINGS OVER TO SNOW. AS A RESULT...SNOW

AMOUNTS COULD END UP LIGHTER NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR.

KJB/IZZI

wow strongly worded definitely!

[UMB WX]

 Terrific read and Strongly agree with izzi.. its looking prime in northern Illinois.  I would love to hear his early thoughts on to the south and east of Wisconsin with the low.

[IllinoisWedges]

FWIW, and it's probably worth next to nothing, the SREF plumes have a good amount of good hits for Chicago, and a few DAB. Been fun watching this unfold! Also, that AFD was a good read! 

[Baum]

^

Let me condense in simpler terms: crapshoot

[Louieloy102]

GFS looking a bit warmer/a lot weaker on instantweathermaps.

[homedis]

Well GFS is north. Nice hit for S. Wisco but the whole run seems sorta weird with how the low almost jumps around - any explanation?

[IllinoisWedges]

^

Let me condense in simpler terms: crapshoot

[Geos]

RGEM

 

SN_000-048_0000.gif

 

Sweet.

 

I've seen some intense rates from these types of features before. 2"+ hour in a few cases. Great discussion from Izzi as usual.

[snowlover2]

0z GFS is a little faster but looks NAM ish for Ohio.

[ILSNOW]

0z gfs. Good thing chicago nws didnt put out watches. Best FGEN has for the time being has moved north of wisconsin border/

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=accsnow&rh=2016022900&fh=45&r=mw&dpdt=

[homedis]

0z gfs. Good thing chicago nws didnt put out watches. Best FGEN has for the time being has moved north of wisconsin border/

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=accsnow&rh=2016022900&fh=45&r=mw&dpdt=

Where is UMB WX? haha he would be excited

[snowstormcanuck]

Nice YYZ hit on the GFS. No taint for the first time in several runs. 13" on 0.8" liquid, although I'm skeptical of >15:1 ratios.

[Geos]

I would think the f-gen band would be a little closer to the freezing line, which gets down to Kankakee on the NAM's.

 

[UMB WX]

Where is UMB WX? haha he would be excited

 

 didn't expect to almost be sweating the dryslot soon like the 18z nam i was.  nam and gfs has been nice in this area for a handful of runs now. its the other models not playing up here.

 

Off to bed.  Everybody have fun with the euro for those staying up.

[homedis]

 didn't expect to almost be sweating the dryslot soon like the 18z nam i was.  nam and gfs has been nice in this area for a handful of runs now. its the other models not playing up here.

 

Off to bed.  Everybody have fun with the euro for those staying up.

haha thanks!

[Geos]

Another great run for Toronto. What's the biggest snowstorm in their history for March?

 

[snowstormcanuck]

Another great run for Toronto. What's the biggest snowstorm in their history for March?

 

 

This would pale to some of the 1800s stuff. But in recent times (like after 1970), I can't recall witnessing/reading about a footer+ snowstorm in March.

[UMB WX]

Another great run for Toronto. What's the biggest snowstorm in their history for March?

 

 

Seems a rarity se mi would get a lot less than the toronto area. But the GFS shows me one way how it can be done. Just seems tough to do unless its a timed well late bloomer

[cyclone77]

Gonna ride my early call of 1-2" for the QCA for now, but I'm thinking we'll probably end up under an inch.  WAA stays north, main snow band misses east.  Honestly wouldn't be surprised if we get skunked again, but I'll hold out hope for now.