A_MED_STUDENT Posted February 13, 2016 You guys still chasing warm snow? Ick. "Warm snow" just made me cringe a little bit. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gymengineer Posted February 13, 2016 Actually the NAM is the exact opposite. The surface is right around freezing but the 850s are still above. Thats why we have 32 degree heavy rain. People are referring to what happens between hr-69 and hr-72. Surface at 12Z Tuesday is 33-ish but 850's are back below. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 im not sure thats true, this clearly shows the 850s are very cold and we are under the 534dm line, surface freezing line is well into PA however. i know im not looking at sounding so i cant see all levels, but from this map i would have thought that would be a transition back to some snow as it pulls away hmmm weatherbell has the exact opposite. 2M temps are right at 32 while 850 temps are above freezing. Are you sure the light blue line isn't surface temps? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 People are referring to what happens between hr-69 and hr-72. Surface at 12Z Tuesday is 33-ish but 850's are back below. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
A_MED_STUDENT Posted February 13, 2016 So how much would it take for things to shift (either east or west) at this venture? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 6z para gfs is a 3-5" front end and a pretty nasty ice storm in the favored zones. The kicker digs under us and is very close to a nice event. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Ok I see now. Surface temps are 32 at hr 69 but 850s are in the mid to upper 30s. But at hr 72 surface temps are a tick above freezing while 850s have crashed below. I was mostly looking at hr 69 when it looks like we'd be getting very cold rain, but I do see that there would be some back-end snow Tuesday morning. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gymengineer Posted February 13, 2016 In any case (and yes it's the NAM at range), snow-rain-accumulating snow is shown on models more than verifies. St. Mary's county did it well in 2/5-6/10 but of course that was a monster storm. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 6z para gfs is a 3-5" front end and a pretty nasty ice storm in the favored zones. The kicker digs under us and is very close to a nice event. I was looking at that too Bob. The 2nd shortwave I think is being sampled but I can't confirm. Heard through grape vine on Twitter. I wonder if someone can back me up on this? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Looking at the 2m winds on the 12z NAM, as it had with the 06z, it shows easterly winds through our region as the storm comes in locking in the cold. If I remember correctly neither the Euro or GFS are showing this and have a more southerly component to the wind field and scour out the surface fairly quickly. Don't have the CMC specifics but would not be surprised if they mirror the NAM with the easterly wind. Think that is the difference we are seeing in the possibility of an ice storm. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 6z para gfs is a 3-5" front end and a pretty nasty ice storm in the favored zones. The kicker digs under us and is very close to a nice event. It looks like we're seeing some consensus with a 2-4/3-6 front end changing to a little bit of ZR and then rain. Biggest variable might be how long surface temps stay below freezing, especiallly in the N/W burbs, and where/if there will be significant ice. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2016 Things look better this morning than last night when I hit the hay. 2-4 would be great with a slow transition. I cannot see a quick flip anywhere west of the bay with snow on the ground unless this really cuts west. I have lived here a long time and the CAD usually holds in these scenarios...the other scenario of waiting for the cold never works at least at my location Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 I was looking at that too Bob. The 2nd shortwave I think is being sampled but I can't confirm. Heard through grape vine on Twitter. I wonder if someone can back me up on this? I wish I could get high resolution zoomed panels for the para. Taking a closer look it seems like the i81 zone is actually all snow. The surface is a touch marginal close to the cities for the kicker but it would be another 2-6" event across the area. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
winterymix Posted February 13, 2016 So how much would it take for things to shift (either east or west) at this venture? Too soon. Let's look at models 12 hours from now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 6z para gfs is a 3-5" front end and a pretty nasty ice storm in the favored zones. The kicker digs under us and is very close to a nice event. Been watching that as well. As that has progressively gotten better we have seen the initial storm fall apart. Have wondered at times if maybe we may be keying on the wrong low. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Staged Posted February 13, 2016 I was looking at that too Bob. The 2nd shortwave I think is being sampled but I can't confirm. Heard through grape vine on Twitter. I wonder if someone can back me up on this? From what I understand, the 2nd sw wont be fully sampled until tonight. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2016 Things look better this morning than last night when I hit the hay. 2-4 would be great with a slow transition. I cannot see a quick flip anywhere west of the bay with snow on the ground unless this really cuts west. I have lived here a long time and the CAD usually holds in these scenarios...the other scenario of waiting for the cold never works at least at my location Agreed. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Been watching that as well. As that has progressively gotten better we have seen the initial storm fall apart. Have wondered at times if maybe we may be keying on the wrong low.I'm mostly just concentrating on the lead stuff. That's the only part of the next 5 days that has consistency. A boring storm/period this is not. Looks unanimous now that snow breaks out from sw-ne between 11pm-2am Monday morning and stays all snow through the daylight hours. Sounds like a fantastic holiday to me After sundown Monday I'm not sure what to think...but it won't be pretty in my yard most likely but I will already have enjoyed the snow. I feel good about many of us getting more than 2" Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted February 13, 2016 Seems like models have converged on at least a 2" snow in DC before the transition to rain. I'd favor the over 2" at this point if I were a betting man. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Of course right after my post I look at the RGEM and it flipped to bone dry through 12z mon. Lol Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted February 13, 2016 Way too much dissection of the nam Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dtk Posted February 13, 2016 I was looking at that too Bob. The 2nd shortwave I think is being sampled but I can't confirm. Heard through grape vine on Twitter. I wonder if someone can back me up on this? From what I understand, the 2nd sw wont be fully sampled until tonight. *sigh.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted February 13, 2016 *sigh.... there must be an alarm that goes off in your head when someone says something misleading about models Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Interstate Posted February 13, 2016 From what I understand, the 2nd sw wont be fully sampled until tonight. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dtk Posted February 13, 2016 there must be an alarm that goes off in your head when someone says something misleading about models Either that or this kind of stuff is said so much that it doesn't matter when or how frequently I pop in. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted February 13, 2016 Way too much dissection of the nam Eh, it's been happening for days. Plus, were ~48hrs from onset. We're sick people! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted February 13, 2016 Either that or this kind of stuff is said so much that it doesn't matter when or how frequently I pop in. I'm gonna start randomly posting about sampling and models sucking to test your theory Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Clueless Posted February 13, 2016 Either that or this kind of stuff is said so much that it doesn't matter when or how frequently I pop in. People have their hands over their ears...or eyes in this case. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted February 13, 2016 Either that or this kind of stuff is said so much that it doesn't matter when or how frequently I pop in. Haha nailed it. When I saw the posts I immediately thought of you. "That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works." Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
