forkyfork Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 the euro isn't as cold as the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This will be about the same time as that record breaking mid Feb 1943 cold shot. I always appreciate -30s 850s, but I like my cold shots centered a little lower like H9/92. With a well mixed lower trop those -30s at H85 "only" result in -10s down at 2m. Granted it's nasty with the wind, but nothing record breaking (at least min temp wise). I'm sure it's different for the lousy radiators like ORH and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 the euro isn't as cold as the gfs Keeps the heart of the cold further west in NY State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 BOS is modeled to come close (-3F I think is their record) not sure about ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 i would prefer not to have this happen...thanks in advance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 LOL SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETHISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARDTRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SATINTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPSDROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICHWILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FORMANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOTWARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEEHIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 LOL SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY. EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47842-a-cold-valentine-feb-14-2016-lobe/?p=3969348 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This will be about the same time as that record breaking mid Feb 1943 cold shot. I always appreciate -30s 850s, but I like my cold shots centered a little lower like H9/92. With a well mixed lower trop those -30s at H85 "only" result in -10s down at 2m. Granted it's nasty with the wind, but nothing record breaking (at least min temp wise). I'm sure it's different for the lousy radiators like ORH and BOS. can nyc bag its first feb record low since 1990? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 LOL SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY. EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 That was about -24ish at 850....definitely short of what most guidance has for this weekend and well short of January 2004. Any idea what the 850 temps were up this way last Jan 7/8. It was my coldest night at -27 but was odd in that it came with decent winds which prevented the cold air from sinking into the valleys as mush as usual up here. Memory is that there were some nasty 850 temps with that air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Any idea what the 850 temps were up this way last Jan 7/8. It was my coldest night at -27 but was odd in that it came with decent winds which prevented the cold air from sinking into the valleys as mush as usual up here. Memory is that there were some nasty 850 temps with that air. Yeah that was a good one...got near -30C in your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro temp anomalies are crazy totally bipolar from day 5 to day 8,like a 50 degree flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47842-a-cold-valentine-feb-14-2016-lobe/?p=3969348 I apologize for my inadequacy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 BTV may bottom out somewhere near -10F at best at the surface and perhaps -20 to -25 at Morrisville/Stowe airport. The lake is not frozen at all so that will be a big factor here in the CPV. Certainly the cold hollows could see -30's or better. This is assuming it is clear, but as of now the zones here have mostly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yeah that was a good one...got near -30C in your hood. thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I don't think anyone but us will notice if it's -30 or -27 at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I don't think anyone but us will notice if it's -30 or -27 at 850 Well of course...but it will make a definite difference in the records since we're fairly close to daily record lows on the models for those days. At least for the bigger non-rad sites like BOS/ORH/PVD. Kind of like how most people (except us of course) don't notice the difference between 24" of snow and 31"...but one is definitely more prestigious in the record books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Gonna be chilly haha. See I sort of like these shots...don't mind it when it's two days and done. When it's an entire winter like last year, no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 What does that translate to at the surface? -15 finishes the peach trees for this year....sigh....again. Planted a Reliance peach in May of 1998, another one year later. The 2nd one was fatally wounded by a mid-May frost a week after I put it in the ground ('98 tree had barely broken bud, '99 was half leafed-out.) First 3 winters saw temp bottom out at -24, -25, -25, which would kill back most of the previous summer's growth, though each summer the growth would be more than the year before. 2001-02 only had a -12 for the lowest - no dieback and blossoms all over the tree, followed by 100+ sweet tennis-ball size fruits. 2002-03 was a bit different - had 12 days with lows in the -20s, including two at -29, and a -22 as late as March 7. Killed that tree right to the ground, though a weak sprout tried to grow from beneath the graft. I don't think it lived into September. Very glad I got that one crop before being conclusively shown that my frost pocket locale isn't peach country. Lowest this season is -12 on Jan 5. Only 7 subzero mornings so far, fewest I've had thru Feb. 9 among 18 winter seasons. My least cold winter minimum was -10 for 05-06, then that -12 in 01-02, with the next a -17 in 12-13. Unless we get another one of those March blasts (3 of my winters had their coldest morn in March, all in the -20s), this weekend looks to be my best/only chance to reach -20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 gfs still looks pretty cold for the 14th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 gfs still looks pretty cold for the 14th..It's been trending toward the euro by dumping the heart of the cold into NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Cold is good for the Ice Castles and Tenney Mtn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro still bringing -30 to -27 850s with brutal wind chills of -35 to -45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro still bringing -30 to -27 850s with brutal wind chills of -35 to -45 It's going to be a powerful shot of cold air. Bufkit soundings have CON at -21C and gusting to 35 knots. #ninoheater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Boys crying for their Mommas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Planted a Reliance peach in May of 1998, another one year later. The 2nd one was fatally wounded by a mid-May frost a week after I put it in the ground ('98 tree had barely broken bud, '99 was half leafed-out.) First 3 winters saw temp bottom out at -24, -25, -25, which would kill back most of the previous summer's growth, though each summer the growth would be more than the year before. 2001-02 only had a -12 for the lowest - no dieback and blossoms all over the tree, followed by 100+ sweet tennis-ball size fruits. 2002-03 was a bit different - had 12 days with lows in the -20s, including two at -29, and a -22 as late as March 7. Killed that tree right to the ground, though a weak sprout tried to grow from beneath the graft. I don't think it lived into September. Very glad I got that one crop before being conclusively shown that my frost pocket locale isn't peach country. Lowest this season is -12 on Jan 5. Only 7 subzero mornings so far, fewest I've had thru Feb. 9 among 18 winter seasons. My least cold winter minimum was -10 for 05-06, then that -12 in 01-02, with the next a -17 in 12-13. Unless we get another one of those March blasts (3 of my winters had their coldest morn in March, all in the -20s), this weekend looks to be my best/only chance to reach -20. Planted a Reliance peach in May of 1998, another one year later. The 2nd one was fatally wounded by a mid-May frost a week after I put it in the ground ('98 tree had barely broken bud, '99 was half leafed-out.) First 3 winters saw temp bottom out at -24, -25, -25, which would kill back most of the previous summer's growth, though each summer the growth would be more than the year before. 2001-02 only had a -12 for the lowest - no dieback and blossoms all over the tree, followed by 100+ sweet tennis-ball size fruits. 2002-03 was a bit different - had 12 days with lows in the -20s, including two at -29, and a -22 as late as March 7. Killed that tree right to the ground, though a weak sprout tried to grow from beneath the graft. I don't think it lived into September. Very glad I got that one crop before being conclusively shown that my frost pocket locale isn't peach country. Lowest this season is -12 on Jan 5. Only 7 subzero mornings so far, fewest I've had thru Feb. 9 among 18 winter seasons. My least cold winter minimum was -10 for 05-06, then that -12 in 01-02, with the next a -17 in 12-13. Unless we get another one of those March blasts (3 of my winters had their coldest morn in March, all in the -20s), this weekend looks to be my best/only chance to reach -20. If you are going to grow peaches in NNE you need to plant on a hill and hope for wind. And plan on no peaches 1/3 of the time. We have a large orchard across the street. Some use fans during cold nights. We are putting in 2 peaches and 2 plums this spring to go along with our cherries, apples and quince. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Pretty classic downslope SE of the Whites from IZG to DAW Saturday night. 850s closer to -20C around IZG while the Cape is around -30C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro still bringing -30 to -27 850s with brutal wind chills of -35 to -45 #ninoheater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 If you are going to grow peaches in NNE you need to plant on a hill and hope for wind. And plan on no peaches 1/3 of the time. We have a large orchard across the street. Some use fans during cold nights. We are putting in 2 peaches and 2 plums this spring to go along with our cherries, apples and quince. Exactly. A friend in Fayette, two towns SE of home, has peach trees on a south slope and gets a crop most years. I'm on a flat at the base of a sloping field, with forest all around so cold draining off the field has no place to go once it hits my dooryard. Pretty classic downslope SE of the Whites from IZG to DAW Saturday night. 850s closer to -20C around IZG while the Cape is around -30C. How often during a cold snap will TTN have a colder H85 than FVE? And that -36 in the "Dacks (06 gfs had SLK down to -37) is about the coldest 850 I've seen modeled in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 925mb temps are too warm for record breaking sfc temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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