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WinterWxLuvr

February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

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Pretty annoying if that happens, It would be like MLK weekend again with the low in a decent position but torching.  Perhaps like wes alluded to this airmass won't be as putrid as that one and we can get some CAD and ice.

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Even west of DC the surfae warms above freezing,  I'd be leery of buying into that as long as the low stays over the bayy or points east.    Models usually are OK at 850 but often have problems at the surface. 

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Even west of DC the surfae warms above freezing,  I'd be leery of buying into that as long as the low stays over the bayy or points east.    Models usually are OK at 850 but often have problems at the surface. 

Yes sir.

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So we've got...

 

GFS...a weaker looking storm that develops a bit offshore, but does give us some snow it appears and stays cold.

 

ECMWF...a stronger storm, warms up quickly, has a GL type of low that the GFS did not really have.

 

GGEM...pretty strong storm, looks like a good front-end and then ice/sleet(?).  There's a GL low but a bit farther north than the Euro.

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We need to all chip in and buy a 50/50. 

 

What's odd is that at least for awhile, it looked better than the 00Z result!  In this one, I don't even know if we get as much front end snow before the 850s torch by some 20 degrees or so in a 24 hour period.

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Even west of DC the surfae warms above freezing,  I'd be leery of buying into that as long as the low stays over the bayy or points east.    Models usually are OK at 850 but often have problems at the surface. 

models have a bias of getting rid of the surface temps too fast. Looks like a pretty serious snow/ice storm for me

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What's odd is that at least for awhile, it looked better than the 00Z result!  In this one, I don't even know if we get as much front end snow before the 850s torch by some 20 degrees or so in a 24 hour period.

 

Once that high gets off the coast like that it's straight ocean air coming in. It still has to modify of course but the high is in a really bad spot unless another weaker high is sliding across to the N. We're a long ways out to worry much either way. It's not a good clean snowstorm pattern at all though. That's unanimous on ens. The quicker the shortwave can come in and attack the cold air the better. 

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Once that high gets off the coast like that it's straight ocean air coming in. It still has to modify of course but the high is in a really bad spot unless another weaker high is sliding across to the N. We're a long ways out to worry much either way. It's not a good clean snowstorm pattern at all though. That's unanimous on ens. The quicker the shortwave can come in and attack the cold air the better. 

 

Yes.  We are kind of dealing with the pattern starting to (temporarily) relax right around that time.  The Canadian had a better solution for us, it appears to me.  Maybe I'll hug that for now, haha!  The GFS actually sort of did what you were saying about a quicker shortwave, or at least it was weaker, and we don't torch like the Euro shows.  Of course, it's not a lot of snow either as depicted, but still.

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Once that high gets off the coast like that it's straight ocean air coming in. It still has to modify of course but the high is in a really bad spot unless another weaker high is sliding across to the N. We're a long ways out to worry much either way. It's not a good clean snowstorm pattern at all though. That's unanimous on ens. The quicker the shortwave can come in and attack the cold air the better. 

No way to keep cold in with that set up for the coastal plain. GFS has the weaker, quick hitting idea. I would prefer that and get a modest snow, and watch it melt a day later lol.

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We need to all chip in and buy a 50/50. 

 

We have one, the +NAO  just tosses it up too Greenland.

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Not everywhere.  We never went above freezing here in that one, although we did transition to a period of freezing rain.  IIRC, Balt soared to near 50 degrees that evening.

 

Yes, Baltimore jumped from upper 30's to 49 in like an hour that evening once the rain stopped. 

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Almost time for Spring Watch.

 

1eMqrmr.png

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^ I'd be stoked if that panel was for March 11th.

At least sun angle season is here. Baby steps.

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Yeah it looks transient though. :(

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This should cool off a little as it heads our way but still

 

attachicon.gifheatwatch.JPG

there are some monster hits on the EPS and alot of modest to good snows. E41 please LOL

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there are some monster hits on the EPS and alot of modest to good snows. E41 please LOL

There are.  I'd be happy with the control run through day 10.

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