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February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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Nice PNA ridge, HP in ideal spot. Neutral/positive shortwave. You can see the tightening of isobars near the GOM where a low would likely be forming. Extrapolated the JMA would probably be a nice storm especially for SE. 

 

GFS sniffed out the January blizzard first, maybe it will do it again. 

Even the pattern is very uncertain at this point. Hard to even give a crap about the shortwave configuration which probably won't lock in for another 4 days.

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Oh, yeah, I know it's not a carbon copy or anything (the GGEM's depiction not being a Miller B, for one) as the H5 setup is not similar, but that's pretty much a benchmark surface low track for DC HECS storms, I believe (right near SBY).  Just posting it since it's another HECS.  You don't see those everyday, even on fantasy D8 model runs. :)

 

In all seriousness, that period does seem to hold some potential for a big East Coast snowstorm, probably more so for you guys in the Mid-Atlantic and up I-95 than in my area.  The EPS definitely seemed to have a signal at 12z.

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What an absolute monster of a storm on the 00z GGEM and 6z GFS. Temp issues, but its close enough at this stage and we do have a HP showing up, albeit not as strong as was being shown. 

euro had a hint of a storm. The problem is what bob Chilly said. Thread the needle because we dont have cold air in place like the Jan blizzard. We will be coming back from a warm period. GFS is a great storm but its rain first and then it turns to snow...how many of those have we had. Its interesting and there is a signal though

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The biggest flag I see at our latitude is lack of established cold. This storm comes up from the south which is good but the cold air is still pressing down as it approaches.

The MSLP panels look good but mean 850's are a major flag. I'm not saying there isn't a chance but looking at mean track alone doesn't tell the whole story.

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The biggest flag I see at our latitude is lack of established cold. This storm comes up from the south which is good but the cold air is still pressing down as it approaches.

The MSLP panels look good but mean 850's are a major flag. I'm not saying there isn't a chance but looking at mean track alone doesn't tell the whole story.

Yup.  I honestly don't feel like trying to thread the needle with a long track system. 

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The biggest flag I see at our latitude is lack of established cold. This storm comes up from the south which is good but the cold air is still pressing down as it approaches.

The MSLP panels look good but mean 850's are a major flag. I'm not saying there isn't a chance but looking at mean track alone doesn't tell the whole story.

 

We will be fine :)

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Yup. I honestly don't feel like trying to thread the needle with a long track system.

I think the possibility of the rare rain to snow coastal is there. WAA could be all rain but flip to snow when the ccb gets going. Op model runs will only cause a joy/pain roller coaster for the balance of this week.

Further north has a lot more to get excited about imo.

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The biggest flag I see at our latitude is lack of established cold. This storm comes up from the south which is good but the cold air is still pressing down as it approaches.

The MSLP panels look good but mean 850's are a major flag. I'm not saying there isn't a chance but looking at mean track alone doesn't tell the whole story.

Was actually looking at that on the ensembles. Though the CMC and the GFS have shown improvements for a storm they have been somewhat erratic from run to run so I looked into the Euro which for the most part has been rock steady the last 4 runs. The Euro is actually somewhat encouraging because it has progressively shown higher pressures to the north as the storm moves up. Now whether that trend continues on future runs I guess we will see. 

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I'm strictly looking at ensembles. They have a great storm signal and a lot of agreement in general but they also agree that a snow storm is not favored. I'm not trying to be a Deb or poo poo anything. I just can't ignore the obvious flags.

Maybe we end up on the lucky side if there's a storm. I'm hoping for it as much as the next guy. But I'm not excited yet.

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I'm strictly looking at ensembles. They have a great storm signal and a lot of agreement in general but they also agree that a snow storm is not favored. I'm not trying to be a Deb or poo poo anything. I just can't ignore the obvious flags.

Maybe we end up on the lucky side if there's a storm. I'm hoping for it as much as the next guy. But I'm not excited yet.

euro para had a perfectly placed HP system but its 9 days out lol

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I'm strictly looking at ensembles. They have a great storm signal and a lot of agreement in general but they also agree that a snow storm is not favored. I'm not trying to be a Deb or poo poo anything. I just can't ignore the obvious flags.

Maybe we end up on the lucky side if there's a storm. I'm hoping for it as much as the next guy. But I'm not excited yet.

yeah - I have to say it's pretty rare a low pressure miller A system to move in tandem with a High to the north in a progressive pattern with no block.  Usually these type of setups get worse for us as we get closer to the window,. - but I will keep the hope that a perfectly timed miller A could happen. 

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I'm strictly looking at ensembles. They have a great storm signal and a lot of agreement in general but they also agree that a snow storm is not favored. I'm not trying to be a Deb or poo poo anything. I just can't ignore the obvious flags.

Maybe we end up on the lucky side if there's a storm. I'm hoping for it as much as the next guy. But I'm not excited yet.

Both early March storms the last 2 years started out as prolonged period of rain that ended up very cold storms with significant snow. Haven'the looked close enough to to see if next week's set up is similar.
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