CAPE Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This thread has been dead since the pd storm was given its own thread. I guess everyone is either focused on that or thrown in the towel on winter. I'm not there yet but I am discouraged that atlantic ridge don't budge. I wasn't really counting on that becoming a permanent feature. I'm not ready to say it's over but I would like to see signs of that improving in the next few days. Otherwise we need to hope for something like last March with a wave riding along a front. Anything digging will cut in that pattern. Still time to see it change Not dead to me. I made 4 posts yesterday And as I said in one of them, the WA ridge doesn't look to budge, and so yes an amplified sw will tend to track inland or west. Overall we could do much worse than the advertised look. EPS last few runs and even the GEFS looks cold day 10 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Psu, gefs more bullish than eps but it looks like another -ao period is in the cards starting around the 25th. Combine that with a pretty nasty epo/Pna ridge and it looks like a really nice late feb/early March cold period coming up. Probably not much of a coincidence that our only 3 real winter threats came during a relaxing neg ao. While the progs right now aren't perfect d10 - 15 because of the atlantic, it looks like an ok window coming up. If the -ao has legs then the first half of march could be in play for the 3rd year in a row. Way to far out to fret over a solid storm pattern. Some don't like March snow. Personally, I like any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Psu, gefs more bullish than eps but it looks like another -ao period is in the cards starting around the 25th. Combine that with a pretty nasty epo/Pna ridge and it looks like a really nice late feb/early March cold period coming up. Probably not much of a coincidence that our only 3 real winter threats came during a relaxing neg ao. While the progs right now aren't perfect d10 - 15 because of the atlantic, it looks like an ok window coming up. If the -ao has legs then the first half of march could be in play for the 3rd year in a row. Way to far out to fret over a solid storm pattern. Some don't like March snow. Personally, I like any snow. I like snow that stays on the ground long enough for me to get out and enjoy it. I love to go on a hike and take photos. Second half of Feb and early March last year was awesome for that. Probably why I haven't cared much about tomorrow's threat. If I get an inch or 2, great, but only to pad numbers. It will be gone in a blink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 This thread has been dead since the pd storm was given its own thread. I guess everyone is either focused on that or thrown in the towel on winter. I'm not there yet but I am discouraged that atlantic ridge don't budge. I wasn't really counting on that becoming a permanent feature. I'm not ready to say it's over but I would like to see signs of that improving in the next few days. Otherwise we need to hope for something like last March with a wave riding along a front. Anything digging will cut in that pattern. Still time to see it change I can only focus on one at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GFS PARA and Euro extrapolation are close to a big storm day 10-11. There isn't really any -NAO or 50/50 low though. Storm track is a compromised between an east based PNA ridge (Favors Supression) and a +NAO western Atlantic ridge ) favors cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Psu, gefs more bullish than eps but it looks like another -ao period is in the cards starting around the 25th. Combine that with a pretty nasty epo/Pna ridge and it looks like a really nice late feb/early March cold period coming up. Probably not much of a coincidence that our only 3 real winter threats came during a relaxing neg ao. While the progs right now aren't perfect d10 - 15 because of the atlantic, it looks like an ok window coming up. If the -ao has legs then the first half of march could be in play for the 3rd year in a row. Way to far out to fret over a solid storm pattern. Some don't like March snow. Personally, I like any snow. agreed. There are some nice hits in the long range gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 agreed. There are some nice hits in the long range gefs Same with the 12z eps. It's not a bad take our chances type of look. Very amplified with some solid cold for late feb/early March. I think we'll be tracking another threat within a week. Next weekend looks warm and after that looks active/colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Same with the 12z eps. It's not a bad take our chances type of look. Very amplified with some solid cold for late feb/early March. I think we'll be tracking another threat within a week. Next weekend looks warm and after that looks active/colder. your right but some will roll their eyes because we gave had some decent take your chances patterns this winter and struck out each time, at least in the metros. The one great window we did score. I'm of the mind that you keep getting mediocre shots and eventually you get one to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 your right but some will roll their eyes because we gave had some decent take your chances patterns this winter and struck out each time, at least in the metros. The one great window we did score. I'm of the mind that you keep getting mediocre shots and eventually you get one to work out. Wow...i didn't know I could read Chinese Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 WOW! Don't look at the GFS @ 200 hours, unless you have a change of pants nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 1040 HP sprawling the GL, and tons of energy undercutting it. Active time frame ahead IMO....Still need pieces to fall into place because we might not have a great Atlantic, but the end of the month seems like a time frame to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The only thing I like to see @ this time frame is the HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Highzenberg please control yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looks like a good setup. I hope it's not delayed because I'll miss it if it's from Feb 25-28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I am already calling it ... The Leap Year Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The only thing I like to see @ this time frame is the HP Nice to see HP, and rid the pesky LP goodbye! Might get a mini repeat of what went down last March, but earlier starting near the end of the month. May get another PV displacement late month into early March. The EPS hour 336 and beyond is a thing of beauty. Very impressive run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 6z GFS also shows the big day 10 system. Pretty looking map too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 WOW! Don't look at the GFS @ 200 hours, unless you have a change of pants nearby Just like the one from 10 days ago that has resulted in a mangled inch so far today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Just like the one from 10 days ago that has resulted in a mangled inch so far today? There is a storm today right? This is a wx forum right? This is a LR thread right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 There is a storm today right? This is a wx forum right? This is a LR thread right? All true - just not sure pants need to be checked over a 10-day prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 All true - just not sure pants need to be checked over a 10-day prog. On behalf of Highzenburg...the pattern is looking quite tasty as many indicies seem to be lining up in our favor...even possibly the NAO. You do understand that winter threats are fun to track by winter enthusiasts right? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Just like the one from 10 days ago that has resulted in a mangled inch so far today? All true - just not sure pants need to be checked over a 10-day prog. Look, just because you are begging for spring and warmth, doesn't mean everyone is, and it doesn't mean you need to troll the LR thread with these sarcastic quips. If you want spring so badly, there's a thread for it. But as Highz and pasnownut said, this is the thread for discussions about the long range and yes, patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 6z GFS also shows the big day 10 system. Pretty looking map too.... That time period has been showing up in the ensembles for a few days now. There have been some big hits in there, but as usual temps might be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Just like the one from 10 days ago that has resulted in a mangled inch so far today? yea but this time we have something working for us we didn't last time. Jb actually said he isn't excited by it. That makes it a virtual lock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 yea but this time we have something working for us we didn't last time. Jb actually said he isn't excited by it. That makes it a virtual lock! There is that. And, Fozz, I like HighZ very much. But I am at the point in winter where 10-day threats and overt excitement seem overdone to me. But, yes, I appreciate knowing that the pattern looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 We'll see how it unfolds but my guess is d9-10 is probably when we see the first good cold push after the mild period. Not usually good for us. Probably be several fronts d10 - 15. Since it looks like amplified but fast/progressive flow, any threat that pops up will be med/short range. I don't think ops at range will lock into anything so d10 stuff will be here today gone tomorrow kind of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Once again the GFS signalling a huge storm during this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Once again the GFS signalling a huge storm during this time frame. Now...now.... Looks like we need to get beyond this weekend and will likely be sniffing out our next threat by then (and hopefully will have a thread started for it). Really hoping the AO/NAO help a little more. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Major Snow Day 9 on GFS. over a foot for DC, perfect track, sprawling HP to north, but GFS has been shifting significantly so it's got a loooong way to go before we can start buying a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Wow, what a beast of a shortwave....that is 4 runs in a row with this signal. Last night's 00z EURO had hints to it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.