mdsnowlover Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 MJO is hinting of a phase 3, *maybe* 4, as we venture out towards Feb 11. This is not a bad phase at all during a strong Nino episode. jb said same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I thought I read that a Phase 4 MJO is not good for snow/cold in February, but I've also read that MJO has a smaller impact during strong Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 a read based on above MJO plots. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vance1167 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 No need to look at models. My birthday is February 11th and almost every single year (maybe every single one?) there's been at least 1 accumulating snowfall that week in DC. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 No need to look at models. My birthday is February 11th and almost every single year (maybe every single one?) there's been at least 1 accumulating snowfall that week in DC. Lock it up. Mine's the 9th. It is a money period for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Looking at the significance plots with the MJO, it doesn't look like phase 4 is a big signal for anything in JFM The pdf that was just posted actually says the opposite, that the purple indicates higher significance. Not sure how that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The pdf that was just posted actually says the opposite, that the purple indicates higher significance. Not sure how that works. Somebody better tell the operational models and their ensembles then because there's nothing but cold on them in the mid and long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Mine's the 9th. It is a money period for snow. 6th for me - born in a big DC snowstorm in '67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Somebody better tell the operational models and their ensembles then because there's nothing but cold on them in the mid and long range. Heh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Heh? Phase 4 on the left set of maps shows AN temps and the poster above me said that the MJO had a higher significance in Phase 4 on the set of maps to the right, while the models are showing cold after a brief warm up between Sun-Tues. The 12Z GFS has the PV hanging out over and south of Hudson Bay by day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Phase 4 on the left set of maps shows AN temps and the poster above me said that the MJO had a higher significance in Phase 4 on the set of maps to the right, while the models are showing cold after a brief warm up between Sun-Tues. The 12Z GFS has the PV hanging out over and south of Hudson Bay by day 7. Phase 4 shows a warm, wet composite with high significance. We are getting a cutter mid next week that will bring 60s over your head. I'm not sure how much more closely you want that to verify. GEFS mjo plots want to bring it back closer or into phase 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Phase 4 shows a warm, wet composite with high significance. We are getting a cutter mid next week that will bring 60s over your head. I'm not sure how much more closely you want that to verify. GEFS mjo plots want to bring it back closer or into phase 3. No, my point was that the models are NOT showing a typical Phase 4 MJO, hence why I said somebody better tell the models because med and long range they show cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 No, my point was that the models are NOT showing a typical Phase 4 MJO, hence why I said somebody better tell the models because med and long range they show cold. They are in the day 3-7 range, aren't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 No, my point was that the models are NOT showing a typical Phase 4 MJO, hence why I said somebody better tell the models because med and long range they show cold. Yup..cold and dry..boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Ha, I obviously misunderstood "significance" and why I profess little knowledge of MJO beyond the weenie 8-1-2 progression. From the MJO discussion: Right 8 panels: Displayed as in the left panel except showing the level of statistical significance. Purple/blue shaded areas (lower percentages) represent regions that have higher levels of statistical significance according to a Monte Carlo test (see details in methodology). In these plots, a significance level of 5% means that there is a 5% chance that the anomalies arise from random chance (also known as the 95% confidence level). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 They are in the day 3-7 range, aren't they?My post said mid and long range, so I was referring to beyond the cold front passage on Wednesday next week and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The CMC ensemble mean seems to be hinting at some type of low the 8th or 9th. It actually hints at a low over the lakes and then maybe something farther south. I think that is a window but have the same fears that Bob has about the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 My post said mid and long range, so I was referring to beyond the cold front passage on Wednesday next week and beyond. Ok, I was thinking 3-7 for mid range so just a misunderstanding. The Euro and GFS do appear to take very different paths out of phase 4. I know they aren't very reliable for mjo at these long lead times, but it does make me wonder how long the cold sticks around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Yea the OP CMC has a big low forming down South @ 240 hours. Big time PNA, but the Atlantic looks to have issues. Long way out though, and long way to figure out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I think betwee 6th/10th is a moderate+ snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 MJO is hinting of a phase 3, *maybe* 4, as we venture out towards Feb 11. This is not a bad phase at all during a strong Nino episode. jb said same thing Bastardi discusses the MJO quite often and I remember some references to this. Had to take a look back and did find one mention that in Feb/March time period that phase 3 is a cold phase but not phase 4. If I remember correctly at some point he attributed that to the el nino and the changing wave lengths. As far as the MJO forecasts at range the Euro hasn't been to bad but you might want to be leery of the GFS which has performed poorly during several stretches this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Looking at the significance plots with the MJO, it doesn't look like phase 4 is a big signal for anything in JFM Bob , Scott Coastal Wx posted this link, background state , amplitude and individual months are what you should be referring to. http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ Also we have Allans stuff here on AMWX http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Bob , Scott Coastal Wx posted this link, background state , amplitude and individual months are what you should be referring to. http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ Also we have Allans stuff here on AMWX http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html Thanks Ginx. To be honest, I tend not to worry about the MJO when ens h5 progs inside of 15 days look half decent. When h5 looks like crap and the MJO supports it then I hedge towards suckiness. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The EURO would have a warm system Day 10 verbatim, but right after it looks like we'd have a really good pattern. Check out the energy in the Southwest, it look like taken at face value the ULL in Canada would race Eastward to setup as a 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Stick to the ensembles at this range though, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Thanks Ginx. To be honest, I tend not to worry about the MJO when ens h5 progs inside of 15 days look half decent. When h5 looks like crap and the MJO supports it then I hedge towards suckiness. lol don't know where it started but MJO looks meh to me as far as influence goes right now . I agree with you 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I almost never look at the MJO. It's like the PV of the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Can't keep talking about day 10. At some point it has to become day 9...8...7. 10 days from today is Feb 7. The window is closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 take out this past storm and this winter is a colossal disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Can't keep talking about day 10. At some point it has to become day 9...8...7. 10 days from today is Feb 7. The window is closing. Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard or what JI said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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