midatlanticweather Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Would be ironic to have a one hit wonder this winter. Models seem to be cold and stormless for a while! Really want to see that change! It took a while last time.. and patience paid off well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 18z GFS would be a way to really screw up the LR. Like Bob mentioned, we need something to help lock in a cold HP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Anyone have any details on the 00z EURO para run? Curious if it shows any events in the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 18z GFS would be a way to really screw up the LR. Like Bob mentioned, we need something to help lock in a cold HP... It's an epic front end dump to ice to dryslot then glacier. I'm good with that. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Anyone have any details on the 00z EURO para run? Curious if it shows any events in the LR 0z para op sucked. D10 has a big offshore high pressure and west track. Pretty ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 It's an epic front end dump to ice to dryslot then glacier. I'm good with that. Lol. What HR? I was just looking @ 500mb didn't even notice an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 What HR? I was just looking @ 500mb didn't even notice an event. End of the run. 1044 high pushing big time cad. Obviously not worth talking about in detail. I liked the pna ridge though. Nice axis and some stuff spilling over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 End of the run. 1044 high pushing big time cad. Obviously not worth talking about in detail. I liked the pna ridge though. Nice axis and some stuff spilling over the top. Update your cache, I don't see any event on the LR GFS. There is one for NE @ 372 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 18z GFS would be a way to really screw up the LR. Like Bob mentioned, we need something to help lock in a cold HP... We've had that -EPO +NAO pattern a lot the past few years. It's good for some overrunning events and clippers that probably won't show up at long range. Not a good pattern if you're looking for a repeat of last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Update your cache, I don't see any event on the LR GFS. There is one for NE @ 372 hours. Booo...stupid refresh took all my digital snow away. Lol Weeklies are wall to wall +pna/-epo with a touch of -ao. -Nao nasomuch. Once we get past our mini torch we look good through the end of the month if the idea is right. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 18z GFS would be a way to really screw up the LR. Like Bob mentioned, we need something to help lock in a cold HP...Its downright comical that 24 hours ago everyone was woofing about the post Feb 7 pattern change and potential. "That pattern is SCREAMING huge hit in the East with a parade of cold storms to follow". Fast forward ahead 24 hours and people are cancelling winter pointing to a one-and-done type of season. You cant script this stuff....tho it has become kind of predictable over the years. Hang in there peeps, winter has at least one more good storm left imo....its just going to take patience. -ao and/or -nao flip will do the trick. We're nearing the -ao, look for a potential threat when it relaxes after the cpf period. Mid-late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Its downright comical that 24 hours ago everyone was woofing about the post Feb 7 pattern change and potential. "That pattern is SCREAMING huge hit in the East with a parade of cold storms to follow". Fast forward ahead 24 hours and people are cancelling winter pointing to a one-and-done type of season. You cant script this stuff....tho it has become kind of predictable over the years. Hang in there peeps, winter has at least one more good storm left imo....its just going to take patience. -ao and/or -nao flip will do the trick. We're nearing the -ao, look for a potential threat when it relaxes after the cpf period. Mid-late Feb. People got a little too optimistic after last weeks blizzard and forgot you can't predict a snowstorm by extrapolating the EURO day 10+. Sort of coming back to reality today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I remember it was right around this time two years ago, in the middle of a great winter, that a lot of us were worried that Feb 2014 would flip to warm and winter would go out with a whimper. We all know what actually happened... the rest is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 We've had that -EPO +NAO pattern a lot the past few years. It's good for some overrunning events and clippers that probably won't show up at long range. Not a good pattern if you're looking for a repeat of last week. Weeklies (week 3 in particular) definitely remind me of Jan 14 with the general conus long wave pattern. Week 4 does too but the smoothing makes it look less amplified. If the weeklies (and current late period ens runs) have the general idea right then we will likely get some ok snows in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Weeklies (week 3 in particular) definitely remind me of Jan 14 with the general conus long wave pattern. Week 4 does too but the smoothing makes it look less amplified. If the weeklies (and current late period ens runs) have the general idea right then we will likely get some ok snows in Feb. All we can ask for is the pattern to look good in the LR. THink about it guys. Imagine if we were sitting here and seeing nothing but a terrible pattern in the LR as we enter February. The next 7 days will be boring, but think of it as the calm before the storm. (hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 All we can ask for is the pattern to look good in the LR. THink about it guys. Imagine if we were sitting here and seeing nothing but a terrible pattern in the LR as we enter February. The next 7 days will be boring, but think of it as the calm before the storm. (hopefully).Man, for the first time in 3 years, I ain't feeling it. Pure gut, but I just don't. I hope something starts to show up on the models soon because otherwise, I'll be descending into a deep snow depression. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Man, for the first time in 3 years, I ain't feeling it. Pure gut, but I just don't. I hope something starts to show up on the models soon because otherwise, I'll be descending into a deep snow depression. Lol Aww mitch. Here ya go. Just click dc-snowfall-d16 and hug #10 http://models.weatherbell.com/gefs/gefs_precipitation.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I still like 18z GFS LR... has a decent look at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Aww mitch. Here ya go. Just click dc-snowfall-d16 and hug #10 http://models.weatherbell.com/gefs/gefs_precipitation.php Lol. I went through all of them already and was completely underwhelmed. I guess I just don't see a pattern that strikes me as something other than warm and wet/cold and dry. D@mn NAO has been mia for years. If we don't get cooperation from that, we'll need another -4+ AO, and I don't see us getting there again yet on the models. I should probably just stop because if we get slammed, I'll be trolled incessantly with this post. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Theres a good amount of 18z GFS ensemble members that have a beast of a storm around the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I think the gfs members show that by about day 10 chances might be a realistic expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Lol. I went through all of them already and was completely underwhelmed. I guess I just don't see a pattern that strikes me as something other than warm and wet/cold and dry. D@mn NAO has been mia for years. If we don't get cooperation from that, we'll need another -4+ AO, and I don't see us getting there again yet on the models. I should probably just stop because if we get slammed, I'll be trolled incessantly with this post. Lol We didn't need it the past two years. They weren't a Nino I know, but who's to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 My confidence level of an acceptable accum snow event by Feb 15th is 70%. Acceptable meaning 2-4/3-6". If I'm wrong then troll me until Dec 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Man, for the first time in 3 years, I ain't feeling it. Pure gut, but I just don't. I hope something starts to show up on the models soon because otherwise, I'll be descending into a deep snow depression. LolFeb 10-13 roughly.....EPS and GEFS hinting. Might not be a blizzard repeat but "something starts to show up on the models". No snow depression for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The 00z EPS-Para is out on WxBell (it shows 7 day periods)..the period between 2/8-2/15 looks best (+PNA, -EPO, -AO, slightly -NAO, and a trough in the east). Lines up with the period others are watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The GFS run ending reminds me a bit of Feb 93, so that's not the worst possible outcome I suppose. Think there will be two more significant snowfall events this winter, one in Feb and one in March, and if fortunate, two in Feb and one in March. Will predict that DCA ends up at 30" and IAD at 50" for the season, maybe a bit more. The Pacific looks a bit more Modoki now and some fairly significant changes are showing up for February over the north Atlantic region into the subarctic. Whether it's a totally positive change or just a new set of opportunities, I don't see the current signs as being negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 00Z Euro OP at day 10 shows promise though maybe more so for 40 north. Pops a low in Texas with a 1030 high sliding to the north of it which may be a little too far east for our tastes. Has a low sliding off of New England which looks as if it is setting up for a 50/50. Confluence is situated through the Mid Atlantic. The big question would be does the Bermuda high flex its muscles which is initially getting suppressed. Edit: 00Z Euro ensembles are suggesting a possible coastal low in the day 12 range. Snowfall means @ day 10 are a trace for the DC/Balt corridor and then bump up to 2" by day 16. Majority still favor nothing to a trace but do have roughly 20 that show 2 inches or better with a handful of decent hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The one flaw still showing up on all the guidance going forward over the next 2 weeks is persistently positive height anomalies to our NE, just off the maritimes. We really would like to see a vortex there. Pacific looks great, AO looks to be negative, NAO probably neutral for the most part. We can get some decent cold air in here with that look, but any amplifying sw would probably take a bad track, or result in a miller B type deal. Hopefully we can get a weaker low or 2, maybe a clipper, to track under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 My confidence level of an acceptable accum snow event by Feb 15th is 70%. Acceptable meaning 2-4/3-6". If I'm wrong then troll me until Dec 2016.I'll take the other side (70% chance we won't), but will still root for snow and hope to be proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Gfs members show some hope. Some are beginning to show a little post frontal wave next week. Those don't typically work out too well but it's something at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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