Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

I'll take the other side (70% chance we won't), but will still root for snow and hope to be proven wrong.

Overnight ens runs looking even tastier. The -ao is becoming a fairly strong signal now. So is the -epo/+Pna. If we don't get snow it's probably just plain bad luck.

Imo- we're going to be tracking something by early next week. Maybe this...lol

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=300ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160129+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[jnis]

Overnight ens runs looking even tastier. The -ao is becoming a fairly strong signal now. So is the -epo/+Pna. If we don't get snow it's probably just plain bad luck.

Imo- we're going to be tracking something by early next week. Maybe this...lol

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=300ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160129+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Good call Bob...I just looked out the window and it is snowing 

[mitchnick]

Overnight ens runs looking even tastier. The -ao is becoming a fairly strong signal now. So is the -epo/+Pna. If we don't get snow it's probably just plain bad luck.

Imo- we're going to be tracking something by early next week. Maybe this...lol

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=300ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160129+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Yeah, I saw the ensembles and the Para, but I figured somebody had to take the under. Lol

[mitchnick]

Yeah, I saw the ensembles and the Para, but I figured somebody had to take the under. Lol

And the Euro 10 day looked interesting too for that matter.

[Bob Chill]

And the Euro 10 day looked interesting too for that matter.

Para euro looked even better. I extrapolated a beauty of a snowstorm d12...lol. Take a look at h5. Really nice look.

[CAPE]

And the Euro 10 day looked interesting too for that matter.

I kinda like the 7th -10th period, and then around the 15th. Lets just go with a Superbowl Sunday snowstorm, and then another on Valentines Day. Both light to moderate. Next one will be an HECS ...PDIII.

[showmethesnow]

Para euro looked even better. I extrapolated a beauty of a snowstorm d12...lol. Take a look at h5. Really nice look.

I was curious what your take on the 10 day Euro op was if taken out another couple days. Not that I expect that to verify but to me it looked as if it was setting up for a potential ice storm somewhere in the mid Atlantic. Am I reading that wrong? 

[frd]

Overnight ens runs looking even tastier. The -ao is becoming a fairly strong signal now. So is the -epo/+Pna. If we don't get snow it's probably just plain bad luck.

Imo- we're going to be tracking something by early next week. Maybe this...lol

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=300ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160129+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

Bob, what do you make of today's outlook for the AO based on the CPC data?  Seems members as a whole have trended less favorable on the AO dropping. 

 

I personally feel we do see another big drop in Feb and even early March. 

 

And what about the GEFS for Feb 11 th , thats some very cold air indeed, even though the core is West of us.  

 

 

[Wonderdog]

Para euro looked even better. I extrapolated a beauty of a snowstorm d12...lol. Take a look at h5. Really nice look.

The LR models really do change in a matter of hours. Something we (I) should always keep in mind.

[Wonderdog]

Bob, what do you make of today's outlook for the AO based on the CPC data?  Seems members as a whole have trended less favorable on the AO dropping. 

 

I personally feel we do see another big drop in Feb and even early March. 

 

And what about the GEFS for Feb 11 th , thats some very cold air indeed, even though the core is West of us.  

 

 

 

Looks like most are trending back down by mid-month.

[Bob Chill]

I was curious what your take on the 10 day Euro op was if taken out another couple days. Not that I expect that to verify but to me it looked as if it was setting up for a potential ice storm somewhere in the mid Atlantic. Am I reading that wrong? 

 

Both the para and op have the same idea d10. Looks pretty good overall just in general. Getting too detailed about an op d10 is nothing more than a mental exercise. They both have departing low pressure over ME, decent confluence, and cold hp in the oh valley. Either looks could run overhead but not without dumping some winter precip first. Could run under us and give us a clean snowstorm. An of course it could easily go poof in a couple hours and never show back up again. 

 

Global ensembles are in agreement that our best chance at a coastal is the 9th-10th. Pretty nice cluster of lows on the mean panels off the coast. But spread is quite large so all we can do is keep an eye on stuff and hope for the best. I wouldn't be surprised if a northern stream vort gives us a little something a few days after the spring rain storm. 

[Bob Chill]

Bob, what do you make of today's outlook for the AO based on the CPC data?  Seems members as a whole have trended less favorable on the AO dropping. 

 

I personally feel we do see another big drop in Feb and even early March. 

 

And what about the GEFS for Feb 11 th , thats some very cold air indeed, even though the core is West of us.  

 

 

 

 

I don't look at the numerical indices too much to be honest. Best just to rely on the h5 panels. EPS last night was decidedly -AO on the means. Best run yet. The d11-15 mean is pretty damn sweet considering the atlantic remains hostile. 

 

It looks very similar in NA to January of 2014. How did you guys do that month?

[mitchnick]

Bob, what do you make of today's outlook for the AO based on the CPC data? Seems members as a whole have trended less favorable on the AO dropping.

I personally feel we do see another big drop in Feb and even early March.

And what about the GEFS for Feb 11 th , thats some very cold air indeed, even though the core is West of us.

Apparently the GEFS are not as gung ho at this time as the Euro and its ensembles. But I do admit that my biggest concern is temps regardless of the models. The Niño remains strong, with little sign of significant weakening, so it continues to flood the conus wirh warm air. A ridge out west that worked the last 2 years may not do it this year. Hence, I want to see and feel the cold before getting too excited.

[CAPE]

Looking at the 10 hpa temp panels on the Euro, the stratospheric PV gets assaulted by warming over the next few days, weakens and becomes elongated, appears to briefly split, then quickly re consolidates(maybe slightly weaker) by day 10 over the NA, a bit further south than its initial position.

 

If we are to get a -AO this month, maybe the troposphere is going to have to do its own thing like the January period.

[Bob Chill]

 

If we are to get a -AO this month, maybe the troposphere is going to have to do its own thing like the January period.

 

Or maybe not...lol

 

[CAPE]

Or maybe not...lol

 

 

 

J. Cohen approves.

[frd]

I don't look at the numerical indices too much to be honest. Best just to rely on the h5 panels. EPS last night was decidedly -AO on the means. Best run yet. The d11-15 mean is pretty damn sweet considering the atlantic remains hostile. 

 

It looks very similar in NA to January of 2014. How did you guys do that month?

 

Well that was an interesting month for sure. It was below normal for the month as a whole, and I remember the big snowstorm that dropped close to 10 inches followed by a frigid morning , almost to zero , I observed 3 degree F on my deck thermometer.

 

It was truly deep winter here for a week. Many school closed and even after that delayed openings due to the very cold and windy mornings at the bus stops, I want to say as well, we had some ridiculous wind chill readings.  

 

Sounds like an interesting time period coming up Bob. I hope we score another one , even a clipper followed by a ground blizzard is fine with me .

[clskinsfan]

Looks like most are trending back down by mid-month.

 

Agreed. And the NAO looks to move to at least neutral around that same time frame. 

[frd]

Well DT concurs, may need to post the dog, aka the WOOF image,  at some point coming up.  

 

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk

 

 

Wxrisk.com

1 hr · 

*** ALERT !** new edition of NEXT 3 WEEKENDS newsletter is on line! This may be the most important edition of the newsletter in last 4 months - ARCTIC BLASTS ARE COMING

TOPICS include- 
1) the latest on the warm up 
2) Possible significant Severe weather threat on Delta / Gulf coast FEB 3 
3) Winter cold returns to central/ eastern US by FEB 3-4 
4) POSSIBLE series of large scale Arctic air mass outbreak FEB 5-15 
5) fairly strong signal of East coast winter storms FEB 8-10

[mdsnowlover]

I very rarely watch them (As in I haven't watched one since last year). I do follow his blogs though and I find that when you really look into what he says he is very knowledgeable. The problem is that he over hypes and goes to the extremes on everything and that has a tendency to bias his outlooks.

well said, his facebook texts are okay as you say, sometimes too much company line

[mdsnowlover]

J. Cohen approves.

good point!!

[Bob Chill]

Some pretty good agreement in general with the eps/gefs centered around the 10th. Seems like a legit chance for long leads. 

 

IF a storm did run the coast it would most likely be a fast mover. Not the best h5 look to our NE but it is reminiscent of Jan 2014. A cold and quick hitting storm is probably worth discussing at this point. Of course a mixed event is very much on the table because an overhead track could easily happen. And nothing at all is always on the table until it's actually snowing. 

 

EPS MSLP/200mb jet/h5/low location plots all look favorable for the MA region

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GEFS is a little slow but also has a coastal signal in the same general time frame. 

 

 

 

All we can do is hold things hold together but twists and turns along the way should be fun. Or maddening...haha

[winterymix]

^{That shortwave looks like a cold front.}

[mitchnick]

^{That shortwave looks like a cold front.}

I think it originates in the SW, so if that's the one it's keying on, probably not.

[mitchnick]

Some pretty good agreement in general with the eps/gefs centered around the 10th. Seems like a legit chance for long leads. 

 

IF a storm did run the coast it would most likely be a fast mover. Not the best h5 look to our NE but it is reminiscent of Jan 2014. A cold and quick hitting storm is probably worth discussing at this point. Of course a mixed event is very much on the table because an overhead track could easily happen. And nothing at all is always on the table until it's actually snowing. 

 

EPS MSLP/200mb jet/h5/low location plots all look favorable for the MA region

 

epsmslp288.JPG

 

 

epsjet288.JPG

 

 

epsh5288.JPG

 

 

epslowloc288.JPG

 

 

GEFS is a little slow but also has a coastal signal in the same general time frame. 

 

gefslowloc1.JPG

 

 

All we can do is hold things hold together but twists and turns along the way should be fun. Or maddening...haha

What I do find encouraging is the sprawling High pressure in the central and northern plains that is hooking over the GL. Not very different from last week (geez, has it been a week already?)  Plus, there is slp northeast of Nova Scotia.....again, good though not a perfect 5H look. This might fit neatly into that 30% chance of a decent event.

[Bob Chill]

What I do find encouraging is the sprawling High pressure in the central and northern plains that is hooking over the GL. Not very different from last week (geez, has it been a week already?)  Plus, there is slp northeast of Nova Scotia.....again, good though not a perfect 5H look. This might fit neatly into that 30% chance of a decent event.

 

Wow! 30% from the no snow for you Mitch? bullish

 

We both know everything is going to move around a lot. It's just an interesting look for 11-12 days. This is kinda how we started last time. Ensembles started showing something interesting d10+ but it was muddy and spread out. Once we got to d8 things unusually locked in early. Doesn't look like that can be the case this time though. We had an established and decaying block going in. We'll be in shotgun mode if things hold together inside of d7. Ops will cause celebrations and deep despair every 6-12 hours. 

[mitchnick]

Wow! 30% from the no snow for you Mitch? bullish

 

We both know everything is going to move around a lot. It's just an interesting look for 11-12 days. This is kinda how we started last time. Ensembles started showing something interesting d10+ but it was muddy and spread out. Once we got to d8 things unusually locked in early. Doesn't look like that can be the case this time though. We had an established and decaying block going in. We'll be in shotgun mode if things hold together inside of d7. Ops will cause celebrations and deep despair every 6-12 hours. 

To clarify, you said a 70% of a 2-4"/3-6" event occurring by 2/15 and I took the other side. But that means we're both saying a 30% chance of failing. IOW, you think there's twice as much of a chance that it happens and I say twice as much of a chance of not happening, but neither of us rule it out completely. See how mets can get away with claiming victory even when they're wrong?  lol

[mitchnick]

Wow! 30% from the no snow for you Mitch? bullish

 

We both know everything is going to move around a lot. It's just an interesting look for 11-12 days. This is kinda how we started last time. Ensembles started showing something interesting d10+ but it was muddy and spread out. Once we got to d8 things unusually locked in early. Doesn't look like that can be the case this time though. We had an established and decaying block going in. We'll be in shotgun mode if things hold together inside of d7. Ops will cause celebrations and deep despair every 6-12 hours. 

I do believe the biggest thing going in our favor is that it already happened. There are winter patterns that set up and stick around 2-4 weeks, sometimes longer. Remember last year, once the pattern broke in our favor starting 2/14, NE stopped with their constant snows. Hopefully, the pattern holds through the reload. And I believe odds favor that, but I really want to see that AO drop first because w/o it, I think our chances go down despite what the models may be showing now.

[stormtracker]

I do believe the biggest thing going in our favor is that it already happened. There are winter patterns that set up and stick around 2-4 weeks, sometimes longer. Remember last year, once the pattern broke in our favor starting 2/14, NE stopped with their constant snows. Hopefully, the pattern holds through the reload. And I believe odds favor that, but I really want to see that AO drop first because w/o it, I think our chances go down despite what the models may be showing now.

What about mixing though?

[nw baltimore wx]

What about mixing though?

That'll be a worry only if it gets too randytastic.