mdsnowlover Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I share your optimism, and really feel that the longer time period to set in for the cold and then storms may extend the potential good times into early, maybe even mid-March. There are certainly some signals that indicate early March being good this year in our parts. i dont count on march to deliver snow, transition month to spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 GFS has the 2/10-2/11 storm tracking from interior SC up through SNE. Nice to see the signal is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Im just holding my breath because we really need the Atlantic to play along or we go cold and dry, warm up, cold front, repeat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 Im just holding my breath because we really need the Atlantic to play along or we go cold and dry, warm up, cold front, repeat... Clean snow storms are in the minority on the gefs. I'm expecting mixed or rain Tbh. We're also so far away that getting too invested is a waste of time. Gefs also breaks down the cold pattern by the end of its run but plenty of ridging in the pna/epo region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Clean snow storms are in the minority on the gefs. I'm expecting mixed or rain Tbh. We're also so far away that getting too invested is a waste of time. Gefs also breaks down the cold pattern by the end of its run but plenty of ridging in the pna/epo region. Yeah I think I counted 3, maybe 4 that looked predominantly snowy. The rest are rainy/mixy. Lots of spread on low positions, but quite a few members have a low track well inland. Long way to go, but not unexpected given the advertised ridge/trough position and the crappy Atlantic look. Plenty of time for things to shift a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I know that this period includes the torch next week, but until this product shows us BN, I ain't buying anything that does. https://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 LR GGEM suggets another cutter Day 9-10 before bringing in more arctic air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Would be surprised if we didn't get a good few week period later. Hard to be disappointed in the season given how big that storm was, but it would be nice to add on. And recent history (30y) would suggest we will.....7 above average seasons at DCA prior to this year with 6 of them having at least 150% of average....5 with at least 200%. Last yr was the only one of the 7 not in that group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 LR GGEM suggets another cutter Day 9-10 before bringing in more arctic air Not thrilled with todays 12z runs long range. The PAC ridging is too amped up too far west and not favorable for anything but cutters. Hopefully things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 LR GGEM suggets another cutter Day 9-10 before bringing in more arctic air That one could easily trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 LR GGEM suggets another cutter Day 9-10 before bringing in more arctic air That is a monster trough associated with that. Encompassing 3/4 of the nation and reaching all the way down into Mexico. That puts a red flag into my mind as to the validity of that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Euro has something day 8. Looks like it's about to bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Euro has something day 8. Looks like it's about to bomb.It does. Until precip maps, not sure what it shows on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Euro has something day 8. Looks like it's about to bomb. Weatherbell seems to be hung up. The 500's look good but the only surface reflection I see is a low skirting through the midwest. Does that Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Euro has something day 8. Looks like it's about to bomb. It does Day 9 but out to sea it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 Euro is wonky. Southern low pops at the base of the trough. Closes off overhead but off the coast with the storm. Compact precip shield. Eh, it was a weird run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Too far east. Sby gets light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Euro is wonky. Southern low pops at the base of the trough. Closes off overhead but off the coast with the storm. Compact precip shield. Eh, it was a weird run. At least both the GGEM/EURO have something to monitor in the next 7-9 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 At least both the GGEM/EURO have something to monitor in the next 7-9 days... We're getting some good looks irt how complicated things are coming up. Nothing shows an ideal or more classic storm setup inside of 10 days. Is what it is. I suppose it's worth considering the vort digging deeper and the northern low tracking further south. Would offer a chance to phase. But I think that's a pretty big stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/2, the AO went negative. It bottomed on 1/16 and started to rise. One week later, we had our bliz. So if the pattern repeats and the AO drops close to what it did at the start of this month, we've got at least 3 weeks before we can consider threats seriously. So I'm talking 2/20 or later. Until then, scraps or a fluke, at least in my simple mind. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 D10 on the euro is definitely a big rainy cutter setup but 10 days may as well be 10 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/2, the AO went negative. It bottomed on 1/16 and started to rise. One week later, we had our bliz. So if the pattern repeats and the AO drops close to what it did at the start of this month, we've got at least 3 weeks before we can consider threats seriously. So I'm talking 2/20 or later. Until then, scraps or a fluke, at least in my simple mind. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Works for me. https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/693297060053909504 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Just looking at h5 on the 12z GEFS, you would think there would be a reasonable chance of something between the 7th and the 12th. Decent looking block over Greenland during that period. Still have the damn ridging to our NE, but it seems to relax a bit during that time frame. I am sure it will look different in another run or 2 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 That is a monster trough associated with that. Encompassing 3/4 of the nation and reaching all the way down into Mexico. That puts a red flag into my mind as to the validity of that solution. I stand corrected. Euro and the GFS have a very similar look at day 10 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 lol 0.00" of snow for the area through the end of the 12 Euro run. Actually there is a few inches in the far western highlands, and an inch or 2 at Ocean City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Works for me. https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/693297060053909504 Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I stand corrected. Euro and the GFS have a very similar look at day 10 as well. Over the CONUS yes, very different over Alaska and NW Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Around day 8 roughly a third of the Euro ensemble members pop a low off the coast during the same time period that the op has that weird solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 Good luck taking a guess what happens d8-11 on the 12z euro ens. It's doesn't look good but massive spread either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Wonder if we see a gradient pattern form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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