hosj III Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 6z parallel GFS looks interesting for the 2/9-2/10. Probably not all snow but fun. Snow to ice to snow. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 That cold front is moving east on day 10. If it passes quicker, maybe come the next day we see snow (assuming this run is right). This is based purely on trying to force something positive. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 How does the parallel GFS do compared to the old GFS? It definitely has had a noticeable tendency to squash southern waves less, that is a big deal if that's something that the model consistently will do because the current GFS and all old versions of it sucks in that department and is why the GFS has missed southern stream systems for years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 That cold front is moving east on day 10. If it passes quicker, maybe come the next day we see snow (assuming this run is right). This is based purely on trying to force something positive. LolThe inconsistency of the LR models now reminds me of the period of time prior to the blizzard. I was trying to remember if the models glommed on to the blizzard idea 5-6 days ahead of time or if it was even longer out than that. We kept saying at the time we have to get a storm within 6 or so days to trust the models. Seems like we're back in that pattern again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The inconsistency of the LR models now reminds me of the period of time prior to the blizzard. I was trying to remember if the models glommed on to the blizzard idea 5-6 days ahead of time or if it was even longer out than that. We kept saying at the time we have to get a storm within 6 or so days to trust the models. Seems like we're back in that pattern again. It was on the table at one week out. Pretty amazing consistency on that one. I tend to think our next one shows at 96 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 It was on the table at one week out. Pretty amazing consistency on that one. I tend to think our next one shows at 96 or less. I wrote bout the possibility of something on Thursday so it was over a week. By Sunday we were talking about the possibility of a significant snowstorm on a CWG piece which is rare. As you note, this upcoming period is nothing like the 8 days prior to the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 EPS has some impressive cold visiting the eastern two thirds of the country from day 9-13. Pattern looks to relax a bit after that. Pretty nice block over Greenland during that period as well. Overall its a hard pattern to read. Just seems off enough that we could end up getting no significant snow over the next 15 days. Lets hope not lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Everyone needs to relax really, models having huge issues on which shortwave to key on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Everyone needs to relax really, models having huge issues on which shortwave to key on... I'm not worried at all. I still think we see a couple chances at a light/moderate event, and probably a bigger mixy one, over the next 15 days. If we get lucky with timing we could score a widespread all-snow event for the area. Its not a slam dunk type pattern though, so its possible it could completely fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 Pretty on the same page here Cape. We never really had a foot in the door for the post front thing. But it's an event of sorts so let's call it no dice on #1. As Wes mentioned earlier, event #2 is looking like the northern stream is going to mess things up so while it could do something, a small or messy type of deal (if anything at all) seems like proper expectations this far out. #3? Heh, good luck guessing right on that one. Seems like ensembles are favoring something messy again at best but it's so far away and so much has happen before it there isn't much to discuss irt specifics...or even generalities. Lol Gefs and EPS both drop some solid cold during the d10 - 15 period. This also coincides with a neg ao/nao. Both ensembles relax the blocking by d15. Could be rushing it. Hard to say. But I would guess that our first real shot at something would be on the tail of the cold dump. That's all I got from thr 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Pretty on the same page here Cape. We never really had a foot in the door for the post front thing. But it's an event of sorts so let's call it no dice on #1. As Wes mentioned earlier, event #2 is looking like the northern stream is going to mess things up so while it could do something, a small or messy type of deal (if anything at all) seems like proper expectations this far out. #3? Heh, good luck guessing right on that one. Seems like ensembles are favoring something messy again at best but it's so far away and so much has happen before it there isn't much to discuss irt specifics...or even generalities. Lol Gefs and EPS both drop some solid cold during the d10 - 15 period. This also coincides with a neg ao/nao. Both ensembles relax the blocking by d15. Could be rushing it. Hard to say. But I would guess that our first real shot at something would be on the tail of the cold dump. That's all I got from thr 12z runs. Well summarized. Not a perfect pattern, but damn it could be a lot worse. Be nice if there was a solid snow signal on the means, but there really isn't at this point. Basically an inch or less over the next 2 weeks. It will be February, and it likes to snow here this time of year. I am in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 18z GFS brings the cold days 9/10... but not much else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 18z GFS brings the cold days 9/10... but not much else Just my opinion looking at the past 6 gfs runs beyond Feb 5th the 18z run was a waste of time a shed zero light Superbowl weekend onward....not surprising the monster 956-964mb low is gone but it is much colder look with a low east which could be the beginning of something good?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 This type pattern any real threats won't show up until inside 72 hours. Our best chance might be a wave along the boundary type thing. Things like that won't appear at long leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Everyone needs to relax really, models having huge issues on which shortwave to key on... Aren't they really keying on the wrong shortwave for us, at this time. And what we can expect is for the models to end up keying on a different shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 admittedly i have only been casually watching the gfs op over the last week, but it is consistently showing frozen between feb 9-10, in a variety of different waves so i will just key on that til it loses it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 This type pattern any real threats won't show up until inside 72 hours. Our best chance might be a wave along the boundary type thing. Things like that won't appear at long leads. A lot of times when we get a big eastern trough we don't have any shortwaves to deliver anything. The proverbial cold dry. At least this time we have plenty of short waves. Heck, there's too many shortwaves. I totally agree that outside of 4 day leads we're in model shotgun mode. I'm pretty sure if we luck into snow it won't happen any way that's showed up on ops the last 3 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Can a met. explain to me why the EURO isn't showing a bigger storm for an H5 that looks like this ? I mean, if you woke up from a coma right now and was shown this picture, you would have thought that the EURO was showing a SECS or even a MECS... While on break at work I quickly looked at the 12z EURO 500mb and got excited, until I saw the surface and saw the low well to our E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 One reason could be the baroclinic zone is pushed too far offshore before the support comes in. Another possibility is that it's wrong and the storm won't be that far out. Or it's h5 is wrong and the while thing won't even look at all like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Canadian monthlies updated today for March. What a joke. Top link is H5. You would think well below normal temps right? Wrong, the Niño is baking everything...barely normal temps per second link. Only real good news is AN precip....more cold rain? Who knows. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016020100&fh=1&xpos=54&ypos=34 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016020100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2016020100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I wouldn't worry about normal 2m temps forecasted. If it showed +2 or something yea but remember that's a monthly average. There could be a one week torch in there that gets us to normal. Or just a general avg temp but all we need is cold enough when the storm comes. The h5 and precip tells us what it thinks. Obviously some blocking and a storm track south of us. Kinda why I liked March as a window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 I think we're losing Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Give me that and I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I think we're losing Mitch. I have never seen him like this in the 13 years i have known him. I think he may have been kidnapped by ISIS, and he is spreading their propaganda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I think we're losing Mitch.I'm fighting my gut that says we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I think we're losing Mitch. I'm worried too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I'm fighting my gut that says we're done. That's a big gut to fight. I hope you come out ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Give me that and I'll take my chances. image.jpgThen you'd have its forecast for February from the January update.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016010100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0 Yet, here was the corresponding temp forecast. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016010100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0 Bottom line is the Niño refuses to weaken and the mjo is sticking it to us. Imho, our only shot is the wildcard of the SSW. And I hate the thought of relying on a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 That's a big gut to fight. I hope you come out ahead.That's a different fight and I'm still winning that fight fortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Then you'd have its forecast for February from the January update. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016010100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0 Yet, here was the corresponding temp forecast. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016010100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0 Bottom line is the Niño refuses to weaken and the mjo is sticking it to us. Imho, our only shot is the wildcard of the SSW. And I hate the thought of relying on a long shot. I'm not a fan of relying on SSWs this late, I was discussing this just the other day in the NYC or SNE thread. The only notable successful SSW that occurred this late and was notably effective was I believe 1989 and it did virtually nothing for the Eastern US except for the two February MA snow events. It was mostly a Plains/Midwest/Rockies event, but man were they brutally cold and snowy that February and March. I think several places in KS/OK/TX still have their single storm snow record from then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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