psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Basically a way to cash in on this setup is the system that gives us this rain actually reinforces the cold air, and if there is enough energy at the base of the trough, it could develop into a low which could give us snow....GGEM/00z Para for example, be interested to see if the 12z EURO shows this. in not disagreeing but that's the kind of complicated setup models will never get right from 7 days out. Better they not lock onto that kind of thing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 You know you are a real weather weenie when you check the 12z NAVGEM for any threats... and there is one See 144... though its cutting it kind of close for snow... decent h5 vort to our south and that pesky GL low is far enough to the west (its in NW MN) nav_z500_uv_vort_east_25.png MSLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I found an interesting link from CPC that shows all the mjo plume forecasts http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml#verif and the verifiable composites to go with it http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/. Does anyone know if there has been any verification attempts among the individual models for the mjo? For some reason Joe Bastardi is concerned about the mjo signal taking over for much of February. What I don't understand is why he would be so concerned when the phases 4-5-6 crappy patterns seem to have lower verification/significance % among all models. Please only answer if you know what I'm asking. Very interesting pattern on the table in terms of forecast challenges! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 I compared the last 4 GEFS runs and unsurprisingly the LR flip to AN temps keeps getting pushed back in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 MSLP nav_pr6_slp_t850_east_25.png IMHO, the GFS has the perfect slp track. We just need colder air in place to start if we can't shake that GL low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Euro has a much stronger HP and cad setup next weekend that's new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Euro has a much stronger HP and cad setup next weekend that's new. It's gonna be rough forecasting out that far. The storm (along the coast) showing up on the GFS the past three runs came out of nowhere basically. Prior to that it had a southern Mississippi Valley storm that wanted to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Euro has a much stronger HP and cad setup next weekend that's new. lol. probably because it looks to have the storm off the coast and a miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I compared the last 4 GEFS runs and unsurprisingly the LR flip to AN temps keeps getting pushed back in time. I was looking at the temps in the long range this morning for both the GEFS and the Euro and was somewhat surprised to find the temps were much cooler then what I expected given the zonal look they both had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 the one-eyed vortex in the GL crushes the storm out to sea lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 lol. probably because it looks to have the storm off the coast and a miss? It's a banged up setup. Loop h5 vort panels. What a complicated period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 well, it doesn't crush it, it shears it and it still rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 the one-eyed vortex in the GL crushes the storm out to sea lol No, it still hits us. But cold rain it is. lol. Was a pretty big jump towards a colder solution. And pretty meaningless in the grand scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 my guess is, it takes the slp and pulls it inland that vortex over the Lakes is a cold monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 What did the EURO have 12 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 it does seem to have something cooking in the Gulf of Mexico, though, after it passes us so maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 What did the EURO have 12 hours ago? a rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 What did the EURO have 12 hours ago? Warm light rain. Now it has colder heavier rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 follow-up storm off the coast but maybe some light snow with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 the one-eyed vortex in the GL crushes the storm out to sea lol I think the major difference is off the ne coast. The euro is slower to move out that area of lower heights at day 7 than the gfs is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 follow-up storm off the coast but maybe some light snow with it Close to a bet winner... What a whacky setup through the entire "event". It's pure NWP madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Is a real clipper even a remote possibility any more? I mean a little low pressure sliding from about Cincinnati to Roanoke to the Delmarva? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Day 10. Here's where we "may" have our chance. If that trough can move out to the east/ne, it should keep the ridging over Greenland, then when it breaks down if we have a short wave, it could produce. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016020112&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Way to convoluted to be this detail oriented from a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I am riding the NAVGEM day 6 train until I get forced off at the 18z run of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Any EPS help? EPS Control? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Any EPS help? EPS Control? Shows nothing through day 5 for our region. Does have 4 members that show a strip though for the far eastern shore and N Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Day 8 shows a much deeper trough with substantially stronger anomalies situated on the southern portion of it. Has a slight positive tilt just short of the Mississippi.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Euro ens definitely favor an elevation event for the period around the 10th but there are some good shellackings into the cities in the mix. Model chaos continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.