Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I do believe 5-10" here would be a MECS! Four or 5 of those would be quite a bit. (Unless you meant another HECS, I'd guess.) Yes you're right. I meant HECS. I guess I'm thinking that being in an extreme NINO, precip will not be a problem assuming we have an active southern stream. Just have to have the temps cooperate a few times. No small feat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Just out of curiosity, do you place any faith in those things? Only when they show blocking or epo ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I do believe 5-10" here would be a MECS! Four or 5 of those would be quite a bit. (Unless you meant another HECS, I'd guess.) 5-10" is an ordinary SECS IMO. Anything more qualified as "major" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 5-10" is an ordinary SECS IMO. Anything more qualified as "major" I think 5" is definitely SECS territory, 10" however, is a major event, at least for the I-95 area IMO. I guess yeah, the low end of that would be more in SECS territory, even in the I-95 area. But pushing 10" is getting into MECS territory (especially if the coverage is large). And getting a few of those in a single winter would be quite a bit for the area (i.e., something like 2013-14). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Just out of curiosity, do you place any faith in those things? I probably wouldn't right now since they basically 180'd from last week. The weeklies were mostly consistent back in December and early January and they ended up verifying well, but when they flop from one week to the next as they did often last winter they usually cannot be used reliably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 4"-8" would be decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Ugh. Somehow, I figured they would look bad, not sure why! Funny, but when you mentioned them last week, they looked pretty good as I recall. Not sure how they've done overall this year, and I'm sure they've gone back and forth each week. (ETA: Now that I think of it, I'm not sure if the weeklies ever really sounded very good for us at all this winter other than a week here or there.) I think your ETA is mostly correct. I believe that they have only shown 1 or 2 weeks with BN temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Hmmmm... I say hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 18z NAVGEM at 144 h5... looks close to a capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 18z NAVGEM at 144 h5... looks close to a capture nav_z500_uv_vort_east_25.png Yoda, what would a capture look like on that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 We don't want a capture in this case Yoda. It would end up being a warm air vacuum and overhead or inland track. We want thr lakes low to not interact at all. Best case not even exist or have it further west or north so high pressure can wedge down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 We don't want a capture in this case Yoda. It would end up being a warm air vacuum and overhead or inland track. We want thr lakes low to not interact at all. Best case not even exist or have it further west or north so high pressure can wedge down True... I was mainly posting it to show that some models still have the Day 6-7 idea... and unfortunately it does look like it would capture IMO... but that 1026 H will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 I probably wouldn't right now since they basically 180'd from last week. The weeklies were mostly consistent back in December and early January and they ended up verifying well, but when they flop from one week to the next as they did often last winter they usually cannot be used reliablyWeeklies aren't good at sudden/big pattern changes at all but I've only been looking at them since last year so I don't know historically how they've performed. They definitely didn't pick up on the blocking event in Jan until the regular ens had thr signal. If ens start popping an eastern ridge over the next couple days then they may be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I think your ETA is mostly correct. I believe that they have only shown 1 or 2 weeks with BN temps. Which is pretty much all we've had. They've done ok..not as good in the high lats in particular, which other models also failed at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Just took a look at the weeklies. I'm not going into details because it's not good. Week 3 is hideous and week 4 is only less bad. Why worry about the weeklies when the models cannot pin a pattern down beyond day 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Things we all probably agree on: this setup is a lot less predictable than the blizzard. Southern shortwaves are always slower than predict in the medium range and EURO is usually first to catch on. Spoiler alert if it's the slower than the GFS, it's right. Lakes lows suck, Southeast ridges suck, Amplified troffs in the MS valley suck, they can all easily turn this into an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Which is pretty much all we've had. They've done ok..not as good in the high lats in particular, which other models also failed at. No argument from me. Interestingly, I remembered the weeklies definitely had 1 decent week proggged. I didn't have them back in January so I went through the Philly wx site because they started a thread for each run this winter. Long story short, one of the runs in early January had the only decent week during what turned out to be the bliz week. So they definitely have value, but, obviously, aren't perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Gfs already way diff from 18z at 123hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Gfs already way diff from 18z at 123hrs yup, gonna be an ugly run. GL low is stronger, farther south, etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Ouch this run high much further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 yup, gonna be an ugly run. GL low is stronger, farther south, etc etcLooking solely at slp, almost looks like the southern slp and gl will phase...iow, that gulf low would come north to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 I wonder if mitch accepts credit cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looking solely at slp, almost looks like the southern slp and gl will phase...iow, that gulf low would come north to our west kinda did that...what a waste. One run has a snowstorm..6 hours later, this mess. I'm not discouraged though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 kinda did that...what a waste. One run has a snowstorm..6 hours later, this mess. I'm not discouraged though lol 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I wonder if mitch accepts credit cardsNah, put it away. After you mentioned that you have 2 kids in college, all I could picture was that scene in the movie Christmas Carol with Scrooge looking in on Tiny Tim's family eating meager rations. I'll just take an IOU and your house as collateral instead. See, some lawyers have big hearts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 That GL low is more on the order of a rip in the space-time continuum. That is one deep hole in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 This will be Cleveland Superbomb II by the time it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 That was a disappointing run but odds are we haven't seen the final solution yet. Need to wait 2 days for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 but what NAVGEM say?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 This will be Cleveland Superbomb II by the time it's all said and done. I'm good with that. Big storms are fun no matter what. 55mph SW winds sound pretty cool in the trees plus my big trees would fall away from the house with a SW screamer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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