Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Nah, put it away. After you mentioned that you have 2 kids in college, all I could picture was that scene in the movie Christmas Carol with Scrooge looking in on Tiny Tim's family eating meager rations. I'll just take an IOU and your house as collateral instead. See, some lawyers have big hearts. I always pay my debts. We're good. Can you refer a ruthless bankruptcy lawyer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I think we just need to wait. Some fluke may happen but the pattern needs to line up better. Sys in about a week seems too hard to do right for now. I mean, we'll take some stat padding if it's offered etc. Too warm coast runner, inland bomb or Miller B New England destruction all seem more likely than an event that would do a huge ton here. There's a reason strong ninos are all or nothing. I still like mid-mo to see things shifting more noticeably. Not too caught up in any specific run. I think the weeklies will probably miss a resumption of better blocking like they did last time. My question all along has been how long do we need to wait. At a certain point the waiting becomes a little problematic, especially down here. That said we could be in the game by d10-15 but I'd like to see better signs of such. All still kind of looks like precursor to pattern stuff. There are some thread the needles that are well known with similar looks to what the eps/eps para show in particular by that range at present though. I could really see it going either way without much problem. We got the very good side of a strong nino but there are a lot of bad as we know from the period prior. Taken verbatim the further LR doesn't even look that great... I'm still at least partially banking on models missing the return of better blocking. If that doesn't happen... we'll need luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 This GFS run does have a more pronounced run of -NAO as well. It may be that we see this next episode take over longer too I suppose. I can agree with the chorus that there's not much set in stone right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 06z GFS likes to keep things exciting. Nice little bi-polar swing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Euro ensembles look good. The overall look and placement of the trough @ day 7 as well as the progression as it pulls north have improved. The ridging out west has a much better look as it has shifted the higher heights south and west into a look more typical for snow in the mid-Atlantic. No change in the higher heights in the N Atlantic, though the last 2 runs are now showing some slight kinking in the general region as the trough begins to pull up. Hints of a possible transient 50/50? Mean snowfall for the period bumped up to 3 inches but that doesn't do justice to the improvements we have seen on the area snowfall maps from just a few runs ago. The window of opportunity that I put forward yesterday has ticked up and has a much better overall look as well on the snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 6z GFS Made a big time trend again in the right direction for us. Let me lay out the details of what is being shown, and how we can cash in here. The red arrow is energy associated with the PJ. Models are showing it close off and swing through SE Canada. Right behind it is a semi-decent HP. This feature acts as a pseudo temporary 50/50. The blue energy is the shortwave that becomes the Great Lakes low and is the culprit to the major arctic blast next week. This piece of energy will screw us if it comes into the picture too fast as it would erode the HP in SE Canada This shortwave is our potential winter storm. IF it remains strong enough and comes into our region strong enough & fast enough it will be able to hit us with the cold air in place from the temporary HP in SE Canada. The 6z GFS is close to a MECS for our region. It does end up giving NYC and NE a large snowstorm, but wasn't close off from a huge hit here as well. There is a large spread on the ensembles and models so this could trend either way right now. I was basically laying out what we would need to cash in on this setup So in conclusion. If we want a MECS next Monday we need the 50/50 (red arrow) to be as strong as possible and slow down a bit. We need the Great Lakes low to setup shop later (blue arrow). We also want the storm culprit (green arrow) to be as strong and fast as possible while we have the cold air in place 6z GFS @ 120 hours. 6z GFS Day 6 6z GFS Day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Surface temps will be border line since the setup isn't ideal, but if this storm is deep enough like the 6z GFS and comes in fast enough it would be snow IMO. Really need to thread the needle here guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Surface temps will be border line since the setup isn't ideal, but if this storm is deep enough like the 6z GFS and comes in fast enough it would be snow IMO. Really need to thread the needle here guys... Not much else to track. The models are spitting out all sorts of solutions...very convoluted set up so lots of possibilities I suppose. Overall I dont like the general look for a pure snow event for much of the MA. I glanced at the EPS and the indv members and there are a few snowier ones, but not a strong signal. There may be another(better?) shot at something in the 12th to 14th time frame, but after that it seems we lose the PNA ridge and go Pacific zonal for awhile. Of course that is out in lala land so who knows if it plays out like that or how long it would last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Euro looks kinda interesting around 180 hours. Only looking at the free maps it's hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Just took a look at the weeklies. I'm not going into details because it's not good. Week 3 is hideous and week 4 is only less bad.CFS2 weeks 3 & 4 look similar. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160201.NAsfcT.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 6z GFS Made a big time trend again in the right direction for us. Let me lay out the details of what is being shown, and how we can cash in here. The red arrow is energy associated with the PJ. Models are showing it close off and swing through SE Canada. Right behind it is a semi-decent HP. This feature acts as a pseudo temporary 50/50. The blue energy is the shortwave that becomes the Great Lakes low and is the culprit to the major arctic blast next week. This piece of energy will screw us if it comes into the picture too fast as it would erode the HP in SE Canada This shortwave is our potential winter storm. IF it remains strong enough and comes into our region strong enough & fast enough it will be able to hit us with the cold air in place from the temporary HP in SE Canada. The 6z GFS is close to a MECS for our region. It does end up giving NYC and NE a large snowstorm, but wasn't close off from a huge hit here as well. There is a large spread on the ensembles and models so this could trend either way right now. I was basically laying out what we would need to cash in on this setup So in conclusion. If we want a MECS next Monday we need the 50/50 (red arrow) to be as strong as possible and slow down a bit. We need the Great Lakes low to setup shop later (blue arrow). We also want the storm culprit (green arrow) to be as strong and fast as possible while we have the cold air in place 6z GFS @ 120 hours. 5050.gif 6z GFS Day 6 day6.gif 6z GFS Day 6 day61.gif It does seem that the Gulf low sped up; with yet another different track and the cold air is much closer to us than at 0z. Really big swings from run to run on the GFS. The EURO seems to be more stable in its depictions in the last 24 hours and is not on Crack like the GFS.Obviously, nothing is set in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Eps snow did get better by an inch or inch and a half for the 15 day period. We'll see if the operational responds because it shows nothing but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 It does seem that the Gulf low sped up; with yet another different track and the cold air is much closer to us than at 0z. Really big swings from run to run on the GFS. The EURO seems to be more stable in its depictions in the last 24 hours and is not on Crack like the GFS.Obviously, nothing is set in stone yet.The Euro doesn't even have the slp coming from the GOM. It basically forms a Miller B in response to the GL upper level low. Euro rains up the coast past Boston. I can't recall such mayhem run to run on the models and between the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The Euro doesn't even have the slp coming from the GOM. It basically forms a Miller B in response to the GL upper level low. Euro rains up the coast past Boston. I can't recall such mayhem run to run on the models and between the models. Very true, As a person who looks at every model run the lack of run to run consistency right now on the models for the medium & long range is nuts. Every run is different on each model. I guess, if you want a blue print on a way to get snow next week is to look at the 6z GFS and imagine that low is closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Very true, As a person who looks at every model run the lack of run to run consistency right now on the models for the medium & long range is nuts. Every run is different on each model. I guess, if you want a blue print on a way to get snow next week is to look at the 6z GFS and imagine that low is closer to the coast. I think it looked like the NAVGEM from yesterday. Be interesting if it was the first to sniff it out. I have been checking models while waiting on line repeatedly here at Disney with the family. 84F yesterday reminded me of our Xmas this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 When you get two lows close to each other, like the 6z GFS shows, one is going to end up being the major player. The 6z GFS weakens the GL low as it heads East and puts its eggs in the low off the coast. The other models weaken or push that system out to sea while the GL low ends up being the main player. Like I mentioned before if we want a snowstorm out of this pattern we need that first southern low to be the main player and trend stronger & faster on the models. If that ends up failing there is also a second chance with the energy on the back side of the Great Lakes shortwave. Still time to see how things play out. I'm not in love with the prospects right now, but we'll see. The arctic blast next week is probably the only thing that I'd lock up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 When you get two lows close to each other, like the 6z GFS shows, one is going to end up being the major player. The 6z GFS weakens the GL low as it heads East and puts its eggs in the low off the coast. The other models weaken or push that system out to sea while the GL low ends up being the main player. Like I mentioned before if we want a snowstorm out of this pattern we need that first southern low to be the main player and trend stronger & faster on the models. If that ends up failing there is also a second chance with the energy on the back side of the Great Lakes shortwave. Still time to see how things play out. I'm not in love with the prospects right now, but we'll see. The arctic blast next week is probably the only thing that I'd lock up right now. Im going to use meteo and climo as opposed to modelology and suggest that the stj in this El Nino will win out. The stj energy should be a bit faster (progressive?) and I also feel it will be the bigger player vs a GL low. I am probably completely wrong but I expect the Euro to slowly catch on while presenting its normal bias of hanging energy back and being less progressive. Dare I say it, but the GFS 'probably' has the closer idea here. Definitely something to track. My thoughts are this system early next week bombs into the Maritimes, pumps heights in the N Atl leading to a -nao that some guidance is hinting at. Models always struggle with a pattern change...don't trust them verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 but what NAVGEM say?? 06z has nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looking at the overnight and 6z stuff it seems models are trending to a wide right for the early next week storm. 6z gfs/para gfs/gefs favor an eastern solution. 6z para gfs isn't even close to anything. EPS has some big hits but generally speaking the majority is a miss to the east as well. I'm sure we'll see the jumping around to continue for most of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Textbook +PDO going on right now. I would guess that any trough west/ridge east over the next couple of months would be transient. At least for the balance of Feb. Wavelengths in March can get a little crazy no matter how the Pac looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 GFS has the southern vort much farther SE this run, so that looks like a goner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 There is a lot of energy on the backside of the trough though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 GFS was close enough to not overthink anything. Easily could turn the corner earlier. Could also get sucked into the MW energy. I guess I would take my chances with a partial phase but temps would be dicey at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 GFS was close enough to not overthink anything. Easily could turn the corner earlier. Could also get sucked into the MW energy. I guess I would take my chances with a partial phase but temps would be dicey at best. Each day that system gets earlier. Today it is very much earlier when compared to yesterday. The whole thing looks strange. The gfs looks like it has light snow showers around here for about 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 12z UKIE has the SLP, but its way too far S and E for anyone to get anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 GGEM is... interesting 132 -- 1008 in N FL 144 -- 1001 near (just south) ILM 156 -- 1003 100-200 miles east of HSE Then either a new low or the one listed above reappears at 168 as a 993 over ACY/SBY... so I don't know if that is a Miller B development or some kind of weird MSLP movement... there is a weakening high in Quebec at 132 and 144 and 156 so I guess we could see some snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 12z GGEM is a decent snowstorm... 4-8/6-10 kinda storm Feb 8-9... most of it falls overnight so we gain some help there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 GGEM is... interesting 132 -- 1008 in N FL 144 -- 1001 near (just south) ILM 156 -- 1003 100-200 miles east of HSE Then either a new low or the one listed above reappears at 168 as a 993 over ACY/SBY... so I don't know if that is a Miller B development or some kind of weird MSLP movement... there is a weakening high in Quebec at 132 and 144 and 156 so I guess we could see some snow? GEM gives us a lot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 12z GGEM is a decent snowstorm... 4-8/6-10 kinda storm Feb 8-9... most of it falls overnight so we gain some help there ninja'ed, but I'll one-up ya' http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016020212&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 GEM gives us a lot of snow Decent SECS... I think we would all take this storm. That H does just enough to help us, and help us all out a lot it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.