psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Prepare for castration. LolI know... And I meant has not had potential oops kinda changes the tone a bit. I just think the coming 10-15 day period isn't hopeless and I could easily see one of the 3 or so threats working out, at the same time each is low probability. I could just as easily see the anafrontal wave stay east, the miller b blow up ots and the day 10 thing phase too soon and cut. Then the pattern breaks down and we warm up. But looking beyond that I have a feeling were not done. The timing of the mjo into colder phases, the likely next soi drop, and when blocking might really go nuts in response to the current strat warming all seems to line up late feb into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Nah, reasonable thoughts. I never felt a big storm pattern either. The NAR has been persistent on guidance for days. Only chance at a big storm would be to have one of the waves blow up and be a transient 50/50 with a tightly spaced follow up. Which could happen but we still don't have a clue which wave(s) actually become storms. I'm sure some lr op will blizzard us over the next couple days before flooding us the next run and so on. Of all the variables that has me most jaded is that dang MJO. it has been relentless and I believe it's no coincidence that our bliz occurred when it weakened in a favorable phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'd pay Bob 10k cheerios if that day 8-9 thing would morph into a 1/25/00 type event. That trough says it has many of the makings sans the needed track. our best shot is the day 10 thingy. If the miller b bombs out and creates enough confluence behind it we could either get a nice front end thump from a cutter or perhaps get the slp to transfer before gaining too much latitude. Without the day 7 thing bombing though it's slmost certainly a cutter. You can see that by playing out the gefs and eps members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 PSU, I'm not sold on the pattern breaking down. Maybe transient ridging with a west trough for a couple days. Gefs was showing a quick breakdown earlier in January but it pushed at least a week forward in time. I'm in the camp that the the high latitudes will cooperate for the balance of the month and possibly into March for a while. Just a hunch but I'm not sold on what the gefs is serving up d14+ Nao is a bit of a wildcard. Prob best to assume we don't get a legit stable block there until it's happening and locked in with med range guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I know... And I meant has not had potential oops kinda changes the tone a bit. I just think the coming 10-15 day period isn't hopeless and I could easily see one of the 3 or so threats working out, at the same time each is low probability. I could just as easily see the anafrontal wave stay east, the miller b blow up ots and the day 10 thing phase too soon and cut. Then the pattern breaks down and we warm up. But looking beyond that I have a feeling were not done. The timing of the mjo into colder phases, the likely next soi drop, and when blocking might really go nuts in response to the current strat warming all seems to line up late feb into March.Your concerns and thoughts echo mine. That's why I took the other side of Bob on the 70% chance of a 2"+ event because I feel the chances are roughly 2 to 1 that we don't, which is not to say we can't or won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 No one will like hearing this but I have a sneaking suspicion we may have to wait through another ugly period feb 15-20 or so before a reload. I do think this next 10-15 days has potential for something but I'm not as bullish as some. It's flawed but not an awful pattern. But the mjo signal keeps getting stronger through phase 4-6 and that's pretty ugly for our area. I'm looking at the timing of that progressing back towards less hostile phases and thinking after a real strat warming event blocking is probably going to stick around to some degree. So if we go into a torch mid feb I think it's temporary but I know half the people here aren't that into March threats. Personally, I'm not ruling out an early March snow event. I wouldn't mind something like March 5 last year or St. Pat's 2014 as a sort of last hurrah. I also don't think we get shut out or nearly so during February, but score a decent event then as well. Hence my belief that it's not unreasonable to set an expectation at a couple more moderate level snow events the rest of the winter. But chasing the "big dog" is, at least looking at things right now and in my opinion, setting oneself up for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Of all the variables that has me most jaded is that dang MJO. it has been relentless and I believe it's no coincidence that our bliz occurred when it weakened in a favorable phase. And we dont have the Atlantic for the foreseeable future either. If anything the NAO has been trending more positive through February on the forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Models will cover all the bases in the 5-10 day but this has been a lot like 1983 and after the biggie we barely missed about two weeks later so lots of attention needs to be paid to feb 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 And we dont have the Atlantic for the foreseeable future either. If anything the NAO has been trending more positive through February on the forecasts. Yeah, it's sad that a crap Atlantic is a given. We did fine the last 2 years without it, but the strong (and persistent) Niño requires either impressive high latitude blocking like we had or a decent -NAO which we can't get for the life of us. Then add the MJO and we're cooked/cooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 And we dont have the Atlantic for the foreseeable future either. If anything the NAO has been trending more positive through February on the forecasts. I disagree to some extent. Both the eps and Gefs are starting to hone in on the 9-13th period having a -nao. Last 24 hours have trended favorably. The nao is pretty tough at long leads. It's much more common for a neg nao to sneak up on us vs a neg ao. We'll see how thing look late this week. I'm skeptical too but there are some encouraging signs at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 PSU, I'm not sold on the pattern breaking down. Maybe transient ridging with a west trough for a couple days. Gefs was showing a quick breakdown earlier in January but it pushed at least a week forward in time. I'm in the camp that the the high latitudes will cooperate for the balance of the month and possibly into March for a while. Just a hunch but I'm not sold on what the gefs is serving up d14+ Nao is a bit of a wildcard. Prob best to assume we don't get a legit stable block there until it's happening and locked in with med range guidance. I'm not sold on anything. So many conflicting signals. I don't know about breaking down but I do think things might relax into a warmer 5-7 day period mid month before another colder period. That seems to be the timing of these things. This upcoming cold shot is flawed because it's aligned with a bad mjo period IMO. I'm hopeful the next colder period lines up better with cold phases. That's teally my thinking in a nutshell. Nothing too complicated or deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 Tough to argue with that logic, Psu. One thing for sure...for better or for worse...this week won't be boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Gfs is more inland with the anafrontal system because it never punches the cold front off the coast far enough. If it shows the day 8 thing, I'm betting it's further inland too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Tough to argue with that logic, Psu. One thing for sure...for better or for worse...this week won't be boring. we score plenty in flawed patterns so this could work out for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Wow, things sure went downhill in a hurry in here, it seems! Just a couple of days ago, the medium to longer range was looking pretty good overall after this upcoming week of torch-like weather. Not necessarily ideal, but good in terms of locking in some cold and some snow possibilities, rather than transient colder shots. And even some good hints of blocking down the road. Now...not so much, at least checking the ops and ensembles. Too much uncertainty to even make much of an assessment. I'm not enthralled by the longer range GEFS sort of losing the cold and lifting heights again in the east. It wasn't indicating that before, but the last day or so it's been showing up. Not sure how much it means other than more uncertainty, especially beyond ~240 hours (of course!). I guess we're in a wait and see sort of period, though that kind of sucks. I'm not necessarily sold on this "wait until after the 15-20th" thinking that I've seen, at least given what the GEFS mean is showing (it will be gone before the 20th, if it's correct!). That said, it's really muddy out in that territory, unfortunately, with little to go by from what I've seen. I have a feeling that some of the deflated feeling is due to some expectation that we'll score another HECS-level event, which is really going for a long shot and sets one up for disappointment. We well could get one, but I'm not even looking for that right now. Despite the apparently greater uncertainty showing up in the models, I'm still of the opinion that a couple of solid MECS type events are a reasonable bet from now through the first part of March. Right now, I honestly don't think we'll be "one and done" this winter, or otherwise only get a car-topper the rest of the way. ahh well.. at least we can all fall back on the fact that no one really has a clue what the map will look like 15 days from now, no matter how many novels we write about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Ne gets snow out of the day 6 thing on gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 we have an active pattern with decent cold air around and numerous shortwaves. it will trend in our favor, as the last three years we have become a snowtown... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Tough to argue with that logic, Psu. One thing for sure...for better or for worse...this week won't be boring. The one discouraging thing that is showing up on the all the forecast is lower pressure across the Great Lakes because the darn northern stream is so strong. That implies even if we get a snow solution it is liable to be messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 6z parallel GFS looks interesting for the 2/9-2/10. Probably not all snow but fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 LOL....the latest gfs solution at day 10 is so far removed from its prior runs it looks like it's from model runs on two different years. For the coveted 1-3"/2-4" events we aren't going to be able to look past 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 6z parallel GFS looks interesting for the 2/9-2/10. Probably not all snow but fun. I sure hope the para scores a win on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Ggem has absolutely nothing close to a chance let alone a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 care to offer some analysis? ha, sorry guys was just poking fun at a pattern that seems overly convoluted to do anything other then basic pattern analysis. To up energy upstream to really start pin point late game evens at this point, maybe a general time frame but I would go much further then that. Nah, reasonable thoughts. I never felt a big storm pattern either. The NAR has been persistent on guidance for days. Only chance at a big storm would be to have one of the waves blow up and be a transient 50/50 with a tightly spaced follow up. Which could happen but we still don't have a clue which wave(s) actually become storms. (or timing) I'm sure some lr op will blizzard us over the next couple days before flooding us the next run and so on. I think Bob Chill pretty much sums up my feeling on this. There are too many variable to consider and a lot of energy up stream to try focus on a storm d7+. More importantly there are too many things that need to go right for us to get a big storm. It's nice to see cold air coming in, but this isn't necessary a long term development which gives use a small window for the right pieces can come to gather. Each late end storm that could develop could just as easily be a cutter or go OTS at this point in time, which means one of the most important player I would focus on in this pattern is timing. Where and when these waves come in will have drastic effects on the evolution of each storm, which is why there has been a general inconsistency in run to run comparison,Something could happen I'm just not holding my breath on anything major. I'd personally have been interested in the southern stream for possible late game Miller B type storm once the cold air is in place, but this is honestly just as unlikely has any of the other possible scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Ggem has absolutely nothing close to a chance let alone a flake. Pretty big continuity shift on the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Pretty big continuity shift on the 12z runs. GGEM and EURO have been much more consistent with the general idea. GFS is playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 6z parallel GFS looks interesting for the 2/9-2/10. Probably not all snow but fun. How does the parallel GFS do compared to the old GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 LOL....the latest gfs solution at day 10 is so far removed from its prior runs it looks like it's from model runs on two different years. For the coveted 1-3"/2-4" events we aren't going to be able to look past 5 days. No surprise to see wild shifts in the long-range in model land and the corresponding shifts in tone in this thread. It's like clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 How does the parallel GFS do compared to the old GFS? Not sure I just started looking at it recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Euro 192hrs almost looks good. Cutoff low splits in the plains like December 2003. Still could be a little too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Euro 500mb for the anafront system looked really good at H5 but developed offshore for some reasob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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