Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco

[stormtracker]

Yeah, GFS has some love 147 hours +   not a lot, but still

[mitchnick]

Actually, there are some really ugly surface temps so I doubt greatly that snowfall map from Instaweather.

[Heisy]

GGEM @ 144 looks good, think we got a legit threat to track. Not going to be anything major, but with good timing and a good enough cold push, could be a SECS type

 

[Heisy]

Actually, there are some really ugly surface temps so I doubt greatly that snowfall map from Instaweather.

 

Yeah, this one is going to be tough because there is no 50/50 type mechanism to lock any cold air in.....Upper air temps seem fine, but surface is going to be an issue. 

[mitchnick]

GGEM @ 144 looks good, think we got a legit threat to track. Not going to be anything major, but with good timing and a good enough cold push, could be a SECS type

144.gif

850's on the gfs look ok, but the dam surface is boiling for much, if any, snow. We'll need some trending.

[Heisy]

850's on the gfs look ok, but the dam surface is boiling for much, if any, snow. We'll need some trending.

 

GGEM @ first glance looks colder (i have it beyond 144 on SV)

[Ian]

Not the best pattern in that range. It is our time for snow though.

 

I'm pretty happy with how things are moving otherwise. Though the starting location is different this go.. (north of AK vs the Kara sea) I think we'll end up seeing a similar progression of that one anomaly area flex then weaken a bit as the -NAO flexes.  There is a period there where you sort of get the pseudo -NAO with first anomaly area flexing but the rest of the height patterns call for a thread the needle in that zone it seems.

 

Would think we'll start to see models pick up on another west based -NAO soon.. though it may be more neutralish through the 15th or so. Perhaps we're just not in range yet. 

 

Whatever we can snag before that period is good of course, but really seems we could be in for at least a 2-3 week stretch of legit chances mid month into early March. 

[mitchnick]

Not the best pattern in that range. It is our time for snow though.

I'm pretty happy with how things are moving otherwise. Though the starting location is different this go.. (north of AK vs the Kara sea) I think we'll end up seeing a similar progression of that one anomaly area flex then weaken a bit as the -NAO flexes. There is a period there where you sort of get the pseudo -NAO with first anomaly area flexing but the rest of the height patterns call for a thread the needle in that zone it seems.

Would think we'll start to see models pick up on another west based -NAO soon.. though it may be more neutralish through the 15th or so. Perhaps we're just not in range yet.

Whatever we can snag before that period is good of course, but really seems we could be in for at least a 2-3 week stretch of legit chances mid month into early March.

Yeah, I'm still leary about anything before the 15th. Afterwards is now looking much better on all the models and their ensembles. At least today they were!

[mitchnick]

Canadian is colder.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016013000&fh=240&xpos=170&ypos=86

[Amped]

GFS long range is pretty cold solid -EPO ridge which is much better than 18z.

[Amped]

Close to an MMW it would appear on this map. May need to shove the PV a little more or Banana it to get the zonal winds reversed.

[Heisy]

EURO @ 204 hrs...the setup = 

[MJO812]

Fun times ahead guys, night

240 looks sexy

[Heisy]

Woof?

 

VERBATIM...The 50/50 is kind of weak & not in the best spot, but its there and there is a HP in SE Canada.

 

However, if you just look @ the pattern and the setup on tonight's EURO, it is classic. Absolutely classic. Doesn't mean it is a lock though, but it is hard not to be excited. There's a shot we see snow next Friday then maybe a big dog after next weekend

[MJO812]

VERBATIM...The 50/50 is kind of weak & not in the best spot, but its there and there is a HP in SE Canada.

 

However, if you just look @ the pattern and the setup on tonight's EURO, it is classic. Absolutely classic. Doesn't mean it is a lock though, but it is hard not to be excited. There's a shot we see snow next Friday then maybe a big dog after next weekend

A lot of potential in this upcoming pattern

[Heisy]

240 looks sexy

 

Well, the 50/50 is moving out a bit too fast than I'd like, and the initial low is over the Lakes, but you can see the CAD forming....Means nothing, bottom line is the pattern is amazing and we have an above normal chance at a big snowstorm, at least IMO. 

 

Here is tonight's EURO, move that ULL in SE Canada a bit farther E, and it is game on. 

 

[showmethesnow]

00Z Euro ensembles are still pretty chaotic in the longer range. But looking over the last 5 runs we are seeing a tendency for the mean trough to migrate west and the concurrent ridging out west to do so as well. The look, though decent, in my opinion does not look as promising as what we were seeing just a day or two ago. Without blocking I think the setup argues more so for anything that spins up to track over or to the west of us. That being said, I think there may be some potential in that regard. The means have also been showing a stronger signal for a west based -NAO over the last few runs but in the same regard it has been steadfast in showing higher heights where we would actually want to see a 50/50 low. Just conjecture on my part but we are seeing a good bit of energy rotating around the PV in central Canada and with that we see quite a few members throwing out transient 50/50's or at least lows in the general region. With transient lows you have a small window to take advantage of, a thread the needle scenario. But with a stronger west based -NAO, though probably not locking a 50/50 in for extended period, I would think it would slow down and somewhat delay the transient low to open a larger window of opportunity for us. I also would not be surprised to see a couple/several opportunities with transient 50/50's to pop up with the PV being planted for an extended period of time. Wanted to add that this isn't taking into account the possibility of a storm running up from the south and taking advantage of the -NAO and creating a transient low for any follow up storm.

 

Just my thoughts on what is being shown at this point in time on this model.

[CAPE]

00Z Euro ensembles are still pretty chaotic in the longer range. But looking over the last 5 runs we are seeing a tendency for the mean trough to migrate west and the concurrent ridging out west to do so as well. The look, though decent, in my opinion does not look as promising as what we were seeing just a day or two ago. Without blocking I think the setup argues more so for anything that spins up to track over or to the west of us. That being said, I think there may be some potential in that regard. The means have also been showing a stronger signal for a west based -NAO over the last few runs but in the same regard it has been steadfast in showing higher heights where we would actually want to see a 50/50 low. Just conjecture on my part but we are seeing a good bit of energy rotating around the PV in central Canada and with that we see quite a few members throwing out transient 50/50's or at least lows in the general region. With transient lows you have a small window to take advantage of, a thread the needle scenario. But with a stronger west based -NAO, though probably not locking a 50/50 in for extended period, I would think it would slow down and somewhat delay the transient low to open a larger window of opportunity for us. I also would not be surprised to see a couple/several opportunities with transient 50/50's to pop up with the PV being planted for an extended period of time. Wanted to add that this isn't taking into account the possibility of a storm running up from the south and taking advantage of the -NAO and creating a transient low for any follow up storm.

 

Just my thoughts on what is being shown at this point in time on this model.

The persistent higher heights there is the biggest concern with the upcoming pattern imo. Looking at the EPS,  d10-15 develops a sick west based -NAO, but those reds are still strong east of the Maritimes. Still, the overall look is pretty tasty, and a well timed transient 50-50 low could do the trick. May have to get a preceding cutter to get a good set up for a bigger snow threat with the advertised pattern. There will be changes...

 

Wrt the possible weekend wave, looks like about 8 ens members have a light to moderate event, and most of those are along and east of I-95. Control has a 2-4" deal but mostly east of the cities, and surface temps would seem to be marginal. Plenty of time to watch this. Still seems like a fairly low prob at this time.

[showmethesnow]

The persistent higher heights there is the biggest concern with the upcoming pattern imo. Looking at the EPS,  d10-15 develops a sick west based -NAO, but those reds are still strong east of the Maritimes. Still, the overall look is pretty tasty, and a well timed transient 50-50 low could do the trick. May have to get a preceding cutter to get a good set up for a bigger snow threat with the advertised pattern. There will be changes...

 

Wrt the possible weekend wave, looks like about 8 ens members have a light to moderate event, and most of those are along and east of I-95. Control has a 2-4" deal but mostly east of the cities, and surface temps would seem to be marginal. Plenty of time to watch this. Still seems like a fairly low prob at this time.

 

Haven't really felt the weekend event at all in our region even though it keeps popping up. The setup to me shows more promise for farther north up into Maine. 

 

As far as the higher heights, that is a problem. Keep the same setup but with lower heights in that region and I think we see DT go into def-con 5, aleet mode, woof mode or whatever he calls it now. The higher heights aside I think there is a lot of potential in what is being shown to seeing another MEC. What I do like as well is that we are riding the edge of the cold when it comes down which should put us in the middle of the action, instead of being planted deep in the core watching the cirrus go by. Now whether it is white or wet or both would be determined at game time. Of course this is all on the speculation that what this model shows verifies and at this point in time I wouldn't put too much money on that.

[mitchnick]

Finally, Cohen can claim victory if this comes to fruition. Too little, too late is now the question for us.

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.gif

[frd]

As expected from a few days ago, the CPC forecast AO index is trending more negative on the next downward leg of the AO. 

 

Of course no forecast indication yet of the negative NAO, but I would think that becomes increasing more likely as we approach mid and February as the pattern evolves. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

 

[mdsnowlover]

Finally, Cohen can claim victory if this comes to fruition. Too little, too late is now the question for us.

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.gif

even if it is we still got whalloped, i got no complaints

[Bob Chill]

Finally, Cohen can claim victory if this comes to fruition. Too little, too late is now the question for us.

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.gif

I have a hard time believing snow in Siberia in Oct is the root cause of strat warming in February. The -AO in Jan had nothing to do with the strat either. All the action was in the troposphere. Sometimes weather just wants to be weather. I've seen enough the last couple years to leave me scratching my head a little with the whole SAI thing.

With that being said, I'm pretty confident that the AO will end up negative on the means for the month of Feb. Seems to be tracking right in line with the standard 45-60 day anomalous period. This winter is pretty interesting in that regard. 60 day anomalous positive phase immediately flipping to a negative one.

[dan123]

I have a hard time believing snow in Siberia in Oct is the root cause of strat warming in February. The -AO in Jan had nothing to do with the strat either. All the action was in the troposphere. Sometimes weather just wants to be weather. I've seen enough the last couple years to leave me scratching my head a little with the whole SAI thing.

With that being said, I'm pretty confident that the AO will end up negative on the means for the month of Feb. Seems to be tracking right in line with the standard 45-60 day anomalous period. This winter is pretty interesting in that regard. 60 day anomalous positive phase immediately flipping to a negative one.

How the eps?

[frd]

I have a hard time believing snow in Siberia in Oct is the root cause of strat warming in February. The -AO in Jan had nothing to do with the strat either. All the action was in the troposphere. Sometimes weather just wants to be weather. I've seen enough the last couple years to leave me scratching my head a little with the whole SAI thing.

With that being said, I'm pretty confident that the AO will end up negative on the means for the month of Feb. Seems to be tracking right in line with the standard 45-60 day anomalous period. This winter is pretty interesting in that regard. 60 day anomalous positive phase immediately flipping to a negative one.

 

Bob, what is your opinion of the the incredible Kara Sea high pressure anomaly that was off the charts, was that not somewhat responsible for the changes we saw as well regarding the AO. I believe HM said that was an extremely rare occurrence.

[mitchnick]

I have a hard time believing snow in Siberia in Oct is the root cause of strat warming in February. The -AO in Jan had nothing to do with the strat either. All the action was in the troposphere. Sometimes weather just wants to be weather. I've seen enough the last couple years to leave me scratching my head a little with the whole SAI thing.

With that being said, I'm pretty confident that the AO will end up negative on the means for the month of Feb. Seems to be tracking right in line with the standard 45-60 day anomalous period. This winter is pretty interesting in that regard. 60 day anomalous positive phase immediately flipping to a negative one.

Oh, I agree on the correlation issue. I more meant he was going to claim it.

[Bob Chill]

Bob, what is your opinion of the the incredible Kara Sea high pressure anomaly that was off the charts, was that not somewhat responsible for the changes we saw as well regarding the AO. I believe HM said that was an extremely rare occurrence.

All I know is the process that is supposed to happen begins in Nov and the strat pv is supposed to take its shots in Dec leading to a disturbed vortex and ssw in Jan. This Dec and most of Jan featured a beastly strat vortex. Now that it is finally getting disturbed going into Feb it seems more like natural variability than a direct connection.

How the kara ridge ties into everything? Was it because of snowcover in oct? I'll defer. The thing that bugs me is last year the process never started at all and we had a +AO almost door to door. But it was cold in the east so victory was claimed.

[Bob Chill]

I looked over last night's runs. Not much to add that hasn't already been posted. Mega spread for the period around the 9-11th. Ens are supportive of a 2 low progression with one to the north and one to the south. Suggestive of a mixed event or rain being more likely than all snow. It's going to be a while before we know what's going on. Euro ens low location panels look like someone loaded a shotgun with the letter L and shot the east from long range.

Just using past history when transitioning from a warm to cold pattern hedges towards it taking longer for things to line up vs shorter. By lining up I mean for a shot at a good storm. I'm still optimistic at getting an accum event before the 15th.

[frd]

All I know is the process that is supposed to happen begins in Nov and the strat pv is supposed to take its shots in Dec leading to a disturbed vortex and ssw in Jan. This Dec and most of Jan featured a beastly strat vortex. Now that it is finally getting disturbed going into Feb it seems more like natural variability than a direct connection.

How the kara ridge ties into everything? Was it because of snowcover in oct? I'll defer. The thing that bugs me is last year the process never started at all and we had a +AO almost door to door. But it was cold in the east so victory was claimed.

 

Yeah, that is all true. Plus I have read, as I assume you have too,  that the processes, top down versus bottom going up in weakening the PV, plus all the talk as well about displacements and splits.  

 

Never really got that reversal in winds that officially declare a SSW event. A lot at play. It all is very interesting to me nonetheless.   

 

Will be cool to see how things play out in the next 6 weeks. If we can time the next pulse in the SJ as we get the blocking going later in the month it could be nice.

 

Many see the Mid Atlantic region going out with a bang,like WOOF.  

[frd]

I looked over last night's runs. Not much to add that hasn't already been posted. Mega spread for the period around the 9-11th. Ens are supportive of a 2 low progression with one to the north and one to the south. Suggestive of a mixed event or rain being more likely than all snow. It's going to be a while before we know what's going on. Euro ens low location panels look like someone loaded a shotgun with the letter L and shot the east from long range.

Just using past history when transitioning from a warm to cold pattern hedges towards it taking longer for things to line up vs shorter. By lining up I mean for a shot at a good storm. I'm still optimistic at getting an accum event before the 15th.

 

I share your optimism, and really feel that the longer time period to set in for the cold and then storms may extend the potential good times into early, maybe even mid-March.  There are certainly some signals that indicate early March being good this year in our parts.