midatlanticweather Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Don Sutherland's discussion this morning was less than exciting. But I knowknow indicators can change quick. Last week they were much better and pretty confident in blocking whereas this week it changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Don Sutherland's discussion this morning was less than exciting. But I knowknow indicators can change quick. Last week they were much better and pretty confident in blocking whereas this week it changed. Yeah that blog really put my Feb. Expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Don Sutherland's discussion this morning was less than exciting. But I knowknow indicators can change quick. Last week they were much better and pretty confident in blocking whereas this week it changed. It's possible but Don didn't mention 4 consecutive euro ens runs showing the AO getting lower every run. 0z had the AO go negative around the 6th and stay there through the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 What about mixing though? HEAVY Snowband in PHILLY, MIXING/RAIN in DC and BALTIMORE. GFS farther WEST with the LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It's possible but Don didn't mention 4 consecutive euro ens runs showing the AO getting lower every run. 0z had the AO go negative around the 6th and stay there through the run. I just read what he wrote. He's concerned about the same two things I mentioned re temps: +AO and Nino. But, like you said, Euro seems much more bullish on the AO taking a dip. We wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 That'll be a worry only if it gets too randytastic. Just need the right amount of randy. So weird typing my own name HEAVY Snowband in PHILLY, MIXING/RAIN in DC and BALTIMORE. GFS farther WEST with the LOW. that guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GFS showing some signs for that Day 10-12 system the EURO has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 We just need the right setup at the right time. I'm Not counting for all the stars to align. We need to get lucky as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 What I do find encouraging is the sprawling High pressure in the central and northern plains that is hooking over the GL. Not very different from last week (geez, has it been a week already?) Plus, there is slp northeast of Nova Scotia.....again, good though not a perfect 5H look. This might fit neatly into that 30% chance of a decent event. Mitch, in the last few days, you have seemed overly pessimistic. I have always taken you to be an optimist Why is that? Check that. I just read your other posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Mitch, in the last few days, you have seemed overly pessimistic. I have always taken you to be an optimist Why is that? Check that. I just read your other posts. Mitch is trying the old weather mind control trick called reverse psychology or inverse optometry or maybe diverse podiatry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GFS looks cold in the long run. I think we will see a legit snow by around the Super Bowl time, give or take a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Mitch is trying the old weather mind control trick called reverse psychology or inverse optometry or maybe diverse podiatryNah, you're reading too much into it. I just believe that the pattern collapsed too much for reasonable threats. The day 12 thing is looking better though. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GFS looks cold in the long run. I think we will see a legit snow by around the Super Bowl time, give or take a day or two. It could be argued that the gfs is showing a repeat of a big storm, collapse, then reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Mitch is trying the old weather mind control trick called reverse psychology or inverse optometry or maybe diverse podiatry Now that's funny! These aren't the droids you want... This isn't the 500mb setup we want... etc.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GFS looks cold in the long run. I think we will see a legit snow by around the Super Bowl time, give or take a day or two. Yes, it does. Though it sure breaks that down in a big hurry right at the end (whether that means anything, who knows). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 The day 12 thing is looking better though. We'll see. Yes it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Yes it is... gefsd11.JPG e18 must be the op run. If it isn't, then it's an exact duplicate. I'd like to see the 276 and 288 panels of that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 e18 must be the op run. If it isn't, then it's an exact duplicate. I'd like to see the 276 and 288 panels of that run. I'd be good with #18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 e18 must be the op run. If it isn't, then it's an exact duplicate. I'd like to see the 276 and 288 panels of that run. Ops run is similar, but swings the low farther offshore as it goes by. It still gives us a fair bit of precip all the same and it's quite cold. Of course, not exactly worth much to point out such differences at this point 264+ hours out. I do like the look of those ensemble members overall; looks like e17 is the only real "dog" in there from what I can see (high already moving offshore, rain from the OH valley to the East Coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Yes, it does. Though it sure breaks that down in a big hurry right at the end (whether that means anything, who knows). GEFS ensembles don't break it down quickly. They hold a great look beyond 300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I'd be good with #18 e18.276.JPG e18.288.JPG I can see now that that isn't the op, but damn if it ain't close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GFS looks cold in the long run. I think we will see a legit snow by around the Super Bowl time, give or take a day or two. sure does, a real artic blast by feb 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 I can see now that that isn't the op, but damn if it ain't close to it. 12z gefs was a total weenie run. Looks like another arctic dump setting up to drop out of Canada at the end. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GEFS ensembles don't break it down quickly. They hold a great look beyond 300. Well that's a bit more comforting. I noticed previous GEFS means held the same general "cold look" throughout. Of course, the ops GFS is essentially one high-res run "ensemble member" (so to speak), and we're talking way out in time. So yeah, GEFS are better to look at for overall pattern look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I'm not too in love with the looks we're seeing. It is Feb tho. The sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It's hilarious reading these posts. One post says the long range pattern looks great, lots of cold and chances for storms. The next one says it isn't very exciting. What a roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It's hilarious reading these posts. One post says the long range pattern looks great, lots of cold and chances for storms. The next one says it isn't very exciting. What a roller coaster. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 EURO good setup Day 9 but might be dumping the energy too far SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 EURO good setup Day 9 but might be dumping the energy too far SW another clipper coming down too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It's hilarious reading these posts. One post says the long range pattern looks great, lots of cold and chances for storms. The next one says it isn't very exciting. What a roller coaster. Cold seems to be the dominant signal so far. Some smaller event potential perhaps in there. Signal for anything substantial seems pretty minor at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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