Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

12z gefs showing a pretty similar look to Feb 2015. If this is right there's going to be a big cold outbreak from the northern plains through our area. 

 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

Slightly concerned that the NAO looks to stay positive. Most likely through all of February. Obviously with a decent Pac we can still snow. But we would most likely be looking at cutters with a thump or some kind of quick mover on the southern stream. Maybe we can get a decent clipper. We seem to do those well.

 

[mitchnick]

12z gefs showing a pretty similar look to Feb 2015. If this is right there's going to be a big cold outbreak from the northern plains through our area. 

 

gefs1.26.16.JPG

 

 

feb2015.JPG

Very close, but not exact. Maybe that minor change will be in our favor. I do hate to say this, but I'm trying to figure out why my "gut" isn't excited for February. Maybe I need to start looking at the ensemble maps a little more because what I'm seeing here today sure looks pretty dang good.

[Bob Chill]

Very close, but not exact. Maybe that minor change will be in our favor. I do hate to say this, but I'm trying to figure out why my "gut" isn't excited for February. Maybe I need to start looking at the ensemble maps a little more because what I'm seeing here today sure looks pretty dang good.

 

Just like CLK just posted...the atlantic isn't on our side. But I'll take the Pac all day long. My gut says we'll be staring at a reloaded -AO on the progs within a week. 

 

GEFS looks bullish again in the snow dept d10-15. SLP low location plots like the d12-15 period the best. 

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

Euro is epically boring for 10 straight days. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Two things that Bob posted caught my attention.

One, the reference to a cold outbreak. I have posted on this several times this year, in large part due to the frequency of 1985 showing up on the analogs.

Two, the reference to Feb of 2015 and stressing the importance of the Pacific over the Atlantic. I think most of us have a fond remembrance of Feb-early March of last year. Let's roll.

[Heisy]

EURO is boring, but wouldn't take much to suddenly spin up a coastal because the pattern isn't that bad. 

[Ian]

Euro is epically boring for 10 straight days.

It'll probably be a while unless we thread some needle. I do tend to think we will get a good to great pattern again just wonder if it'll be too late for the low lands. We'll see.

[CAPE]

It'll probably be a while unless we thread some needle. I do tend to think we will get a good to great pattern again just wonder if it'll be too late for the low lands. We'll see.

I think the pattern will be good again long before mid March

[Bob Chill]

It'll probably be a while unless we thread some needle. I do tend to think we will get a good to great pattern again just wonder if it'll be too late for the low lands. We'll see.

 

I've mostly written off any chance through the 4th of Feb unless things change quite a bit. Beyond that is quite interesting. Almost on queue the EPS make a big jump towards a -AO in the d10-15 mean. 

 

0z last night

 

 

 

12z today

 

 

 

It's even more evident earlier in the run. The ridging punching up through AK towards the pole gets pinched off Rex style. Nasty closed contour upper level ridge going on by d8-9.

 

 

 

This is probably the story to watch with long range guidance. The +PNA/eastern trough seem very likely. But that in itself won't get the job done for a big storm. Maybe something small to moderate. If we get a stable block established before the 10th of Feb then things could be fun for everyone. 

[CAPE]

I've mostly written off any chance through the 4th of Feb unless things change quite a bit. Beyond that is quite interesting. Almost on queue the EPS make a big jump towards a -AO in the d10-15 mean. 

 

0z last night

 

0Zepsd10-15.JPG

 

 

12z today

 

12Zepsd10-15.JPG

 

 

It's even more evident earlier in the run. The ridging punching up through AK towards the pole gets pinched off Rex style. Nasty closed contour upper level ridge going on by d8-9.

 

 

This is probably the story to watch with long range guidance. The +PNA/eastern trough seem very likely. But that in itself won't get the job done for a big storm. Maybe something small to moderate. If we get a stable block established before the 10th of Feb then things could be fun for everyone. 

 

Was just looking at it. Looks somewhat like last winter. Clipperfest...maybe one jacked on super-Nino Steroids?

[gymengineer]

It would actually be unique in DC records if we *didn't* have more substantial snow this winter, going by the top 15 list. In other words, winters with a big one have all been well above average snowfall winters. 

 

Subtracting out the single storm:

 

1) 1921-1922: 14.5" 

2) 1898-1899: 33.9"

3) 1978-1979: 19.0"

4) 2009-2010: 38.3"

5) 1995-1996: 28.9"

6) 2002-2003: 23.7"

7) 1982-1983: 11.0"

8) 2009-2010: 39.7"

9) 1957-1958: 26.0"

9) 1935-1936: 17.4"

11) 1899-1900: 21.3"

12) 1965-1966: 14.6"

13) 1898-1899: 40.7"

14) 1885-1886: ?

15) 1890-1891: 25.1"

 

Of course, this winter could be the exception with the strength of the Nino, but if 82/83 could manage to do it (with their big one the last of three events), I'm optimistic about this one. 

[MN Transplant]

Nice stat.

[yoda]

EURO is boring, but wouldn't take much to suddenly spin up a coastal because the pattern isn't that bad. 

 

I'd think we would all take the GFS at Day 15-16

 

Funny how that date could be a "carbon copy" of 1983, which has shown up on some CPC analogs...

 

Pattern on the GFS becomes much better Day 10+ as Bob and others have said

[Ji]

im ready for another one. Only 2 feet though. Cant deal with 36 again this year

[Ian]

I haven't looked at LR too much lately but prior to storm it was looking like feb 10-15 or so. Still seems generally workable. This time it took about 2 weeks to produce so my thought is mainly we don't want to see it drag on starting up.

I do agree one big one probably ups the odds of another in general. Was going to write a piece on how unusual it is that one storm makes a winter to support low snowfall forecast idea but never did. Prob not a bad thing now, just in case.

[gymengineer]

I haven't looked at LR too much lately but prior to storm it was looking like feb 10-15 or so. Still seems generally workable. This time it took about 2 weeks to produce so my thought is mainly we don't want to see it drag on starting up.

I do agree one big one probably ups the odds of another in general. Was going to write a piece on how unusual it is that one storm makes a winter to support low snowfall forecast idea but never did. Prob not a bad thing now, just in case.

Yes, either another big one or a couple/few moderate ones in the 4-8" range. But none of the above winters came close to being a 1-storm winter. 

[yoda]

Yes, either another big one or a couple/few moderate ones in the 4-8" range. But none of the above winters came close to being a 1-storm winter. 

 

Interesting stats, thanks for the research.  I too would agree that we have a few more good storms to go

[87storms]

hecs aside, still seems to want to be warmer than average. Today felt surprisingly warm. Last 2 years we did pretty well with moderate storms possibly because we had so much cold to work with. Less needed to go right.

[Bob Chill]

Great stats, gym. It would be unusual to go one and done but still exceed climo. 10-11 was almost 2 and done but the first storm we never speak of didn't do its job.

I know it's unusual to go virtually snowless through Jan 20th and still beat climo but we did that one already.

After seeing the weeklies and the direction ens guidance seems locked in on for early Feb, we should all feel pretty optimistic. The balace of Feb shouldn't be hostile for snow at worst and textbook nino with blocking at best. In my brain it makes the most sense to have another -ao month on the means.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

That period starting around the end of the 1st week of Feb definitely looks interesting right now. Some of the ops GFS runs have dumped some very cold air with quite an amplified +PNA. Hopefully signs of - AO/-NAO blocking eventually showing up are real.

I don't see us getting another HECS level event here but can imagine a couple of good moderate/MECS events through early Mar. Would be glad to be wrong about not getting another HECS though LOL!

[WinterWxLuvr]

It would actually be unique in DC records if we *didn't* have more substantial snow this winter, going by the top 15 list. In other words, winters with a big one have all been well above average snowfall winters.

Subtracting out the single storm:

1) 1921-1922: 14.5"

2) 1898-1899: 33.9"

3) 1978-1979: 19.0"

4) 2009-2010: 38.3"

5) 1995-1996: 28.9"

6) 2002-2003: 23.7"

7) 1982-1983: 11.0"

8) 2009-2010: 39.7"

9) 1957-1958: 26.0"

9) 1935-1936: 17.4"

11) 1899-1900: 21.3"

12) 1965-1966: 14.6"

13) 1898-1899: 40.7"

14) 1885-1886: ?

15) 1890-1891: 25.1"

Of course, this winter could be the exception with the strength of the Nino, but if 82/83 could manage to do it (with their big one the last of three events), I'm optimistic about this one.

Why is 9-10 in the list twice? One minus the Dec storm and one minus the Feb storm?

[gymengineer]

Why is 9-10 in the list twice? One minus the Dec storm and one minus the Feb storm?

Yes. That list goes down the list of the top 15 DC snowstorms before this latest one. 

[Amped]

Mike Ventrice on Twitter pointed out that the GLAAM is supposed to drop to near normal in several days by the GFS. This would take us out of a typical STJ Nino pattern at least temporarily.

 

Don't see the day 10+ pattern as particularly interesting, just a good +PNA and maybe a -EPO/AO if the blocking can hold.

 

I was hoping for a raging STJ and -NAO.

[clskinsfan]

It would actually be unique in DC records if we *didn't* have more substantial snow this winter, going by the top 15 list. In other words, winters with a big one have all been well above average snowfall winters. 

 

Subtracting out the single storm:

 

1) 1921-1922: 14.5" 

2) 1898-1899: 33.9"

3) 1978-1979: 19.0"

4) 2009-2010: 38.3"

5) 1995-1996: 28.9"

6) 2002-2003: 23.7"

7) 1982-1983: 11.0"

8) 2009-2010: 39.7"

9) 1957-1958: 26.0"

9) 1935-1936: 17.4"

11) 1899-1900: 21.3"

12) 1965-1966: 14.6"

13) 1898-1899: 40.7"

14) 1885-1886: ?

15) 1890-1891: 25.1"

 

Of course, this winter could be the exception with the strength of the Nino, but if 82/83 could manage to do it (with their big one the last of three events), I'm optimistic about this one. 

 

Great post. Thanks for the info.

[mitchnick]

The one thing that gives me some serious pause about Feb is the Niño. The SOI has taken a real dump and the subsurface is WARMING again, and not for just a day or two. I was waiting to see if it continued before I posted, but it looks for real. The good news is, the winds don't look to be conducive in the near term, but I'm thinking/worried that may suddenly change on the modeling. Info I'm basing this on comes from this site. Maybe it's nothing when it comes to the weather, but the soi/subsurface has me spooked today.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

[Subtropics]

I don't want a 2 foot snow storm. I want a 1 foot snow storm with wide spread blizzard verifying winds. I would trade less snow with sustained 40+ Gusts 60+ area wide in heart beat. 

 

I am a tropical weenie though, with a wind fetish though so keep that in mind...

[mattie g]

The one thing that gives me some serious pause about Feb is the Niño. The SOI has taken a real dump and the subsurface is WARMING again, and not for just a day or two. I was waiting to see if it continued before I posted, but it looks for real. The good news is, the winds don't look to be conducive in the near term, but I'm thinking/worried that may suddenly change on the modeling. Info I'm basing this on comes from this site. Maybe it's nothing when it comes to the weather, but the soi/subsurface has me spooked today.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

Good. I'll take my chances on a Nino following a Super Nino. 2016-2017: epic winter or bust!

Then we get Nino hangover in 2017-2018...

[mattie g]

Joking aside, gut has been telling me for a while that a two- to three-week period of solid looks in mid/late February (10th-25th or thereabouts) has been on the cards. Then roll that out again around the second week of March, with obvious caveats about the difficulty of getting snow around the cities at that time.

The stats given my gymengineer were really interesting, so it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see a couple really good looks before the end of the season. Put a gun to my head, and I'd say we see a 4-8" storm and an 8-14" one...and I might be tempted to even bump each of those up a bit. Maybe we even get an area-wide 12"+ out of one of those if things go right, though I expect no extended snowcover.

[Heisy]

GFS @ 186 hrs looks like it might end forming a new storm on the front...Nice energy left behind around Texas...12z GGEM did that fwiw