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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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The 06Z GFS is pretty much following what we saw with the 00Z. One difference though is that it has some northern stream energy dropping down behind next week's Great Lakes low. Pops a low in the vicinity of Kentucky and Tenn. that then rides underneath of the N Va and MD region.

 

00Z Euro ensembles paints a trace for the mean in the DC/Balt corridor at day 10 which follows in the ideas we have already. Day 10 through 16 ups the means to 2-3 inches for the corridor. Looking at the individual members though gives the impression of an all or nothing scenario in that 10 to 16 day period. Roughly 2/3 of the members are basically nonevents with the mean being propped up from the other 1/3 of which there are 10 members with 6+ inches or greater. Nice to see that the Euro at least sees the potential for that period. 

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The 06Z GFS is pretty much following what we saw with the 00Z. One difference though is that it has some northern stream energy dropping down behind next week's Great Lakes low. Pops a low in the vicinity of Kentucky and Tenn. that then rides underneath of the N Va and MD region.

 

00Z Euro ensembles paints a trace for the mean in the DC/Balt corridor at day 10 which follows in the ideas we have already. Day 10 through 16 ups the means to 2-3 inches for the corridor. Looking at the individual members though gives the impression of an all or nothing scenario in that 10 to 16 day period. Roughly 2/3 of the members are basically nonevents with the mean being propped up from the other 1/3 of which there are 10 members with 6+ inches or greater. Nice to see that the Euro at least sees the potential for that period. 

 

I like the looks of that little event on the GFS.  Reminds of an event from 2 winters ago when we had a clipper get beefed up on an arctic front.  

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Ensembles are locking in on a fairly decent cold outbreak d10-15. Look like cold temps would continue beyond as well. Not Feb 15 kind of cold but there does look like door will open for cross polar flow. 

 

CPC analogs made a big jump this morning. 98 & 83 are all gone from the d11+. Indicative of the upcoming pattern not being very nino'ish. Which means it's probably temporary. The analog dates also don't point towards any big storms. Which makes some sense. It's not a blocked flow/strong STJ look. It's amplified and progressive. One that ops will struggle with at medium leads. 

 

EPS does have a cluster of lows coming up from GA/SC around the 7-8th or so. That's probably where the big hits are coming from on the ens. Pretty noisy and muddy as you get out there in time. We probably won't have much of a clear picture for another 4-6 days. 

 

My wag is the pattern looks cold and dry at the beginning after the big storm in the middle of the country gets out of the way.  Small events favored over anything big. Timing, thread the needle, progressive, blah blah blah. 

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Along with every other weenie on this Board!   lol

 

It would be pretty cool to have real deal blocking through the end of the month into March. Nino marches aren't the best around here but you could say that almost no marches are that good...until the last couple years. December is fall (or summer this year) and March is winter it seems. 

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Dr. Cohen approves

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_31.png

 

For what it's worth the Euro keeps trying to split it as well.

 

My knowledge of strato warming and pv splits is extremely limited but to the best of my understanding not all pv splits are beneficial to us here on the east coast. Tried searching online, though admittedly not too hard, for reference of the effects we could expect from the different pv split configurations. You wouldn't have that information available by any chance?

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For what it's worth the Euro keeps trying to split it as well.

 

My knowledge of strato warming and pv splits is extremely limited but to the best of my understanding not all pv splits are beneficial to us here on the east coast. Tried searching online, though admittedly not too hard, for reference of the effects we could expect from the different pv split configurations. You wouldn't have that information available by any chance?

 

It's a mixed bag of results through history. Splitting is far less common than displacements. IMO- a displacement is probably the most likely scenario. 

 

Some really neat animations of past splits and displacements are here:

 

http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/ssw.html

 

Displacements can be more effective than splitting at times and vice versa. I personally don't have near the knowledge as many do. I just look at it from a simpleton view. At the very least, a displacement/warming/reduction in westerlies is associated with higher chances of HL blocking in the northern hemisphere. It's not a perfect connection at all. 

 

Jan 2014 had good displacement and seemed to assist with cold delivery in the east in general. Other times in the past it had no effect on us but made europe cold. In a nutshell, what appears to be going on in the strat can be viewed as a positive influence but actual results won't be known until they are happening. 

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It's a mixed bag of results through history. Splitting is far less common than displacements. IMO- a displacement is probably the most likely scenario. 

 

Some really neat animations of past splits and displacements are here:

 

http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/ssw.html

 

Displacements can be more effective than splitting at times and vice versa. I personally don't have near the knowledge as many do. I just look at it from a simpleton view. At the very least, a displacement/warming/reduction in westerlies is associated with higher chances of HL blocking in the northern hemisphere. It's not a perfect connection at all. 

 

Jan 2014 had good displacement and seemed to assist with cold delivery in the east in general. Other times in the past it had no effect on us but made europe cold. In a nutshell, what appears to be going on in the strat can be viewed as a positive influence but actual results won't be known until they are happening. 

 

Much thanks. My limited understanding is what I gleaned years ago in desperation during a winter that made grown men cry. At least grown men that love snow. :) I might actually make an effort at some point to really delve into it but for now I think I will continue looking at it as nothing more then a wild card thrown into the equation. And again thanks for the link, its spot on to what I was looking for. 

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Give me a 12" snow followed by two weeks of frigid with maybe a clipper in the middle and I'd be ok with calling it done. It's going to take a good six week period into mid March for me to call this a "good" winter.

 

Any winter with a HECS is a great winter to me, even if it's otherwise awful. To get a nearly 30 inch storm at BWI with blizzard conditions was amazing. Those 4-5 hours in the afternoon were nuts. That said, I'll take another HECS or two, please.

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Much thanks. My limited understanding is what I gleaned years ago in desperation during a winter that made grown men cry. At least grown men that love snow. :) I might actually make an effort at some point to really delve into it but for now I think I will continue looking at it as nothing more then a wild card thrown into the equation. And again thanks for the link, its spot on to what I was looking for. 

You're a good poster. I noticed you haven't been around here in a while. Good to see you back posting. It's nice to have the northern tier represented more.

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Give me a 12" snow followed by two weeks of frigid with maybe a clipper in the middle and I'd be ok with calling it done. It's going to take a good six week period into mid March for me to call this a "good" winter.

 Once in a generation blizzard doesn't classify as a good winter? Are you from the Tug Hill area?

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You're a good poster. I noticed you haven't been around here in a while. Good to see you back posting. It's nice to have the northern tier represented more.

Thanks for the kind words. Been dealing with my mother being seriously ill for several months and then passing a couple days before Christmas so it has been hard to find the time or the motivation. But after just tracking the Blizzard of 2016 it's now got me raring to go.

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