clueless Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Clueless, are you on? Is there anyone else on that lives on northern Route 28, on Route 7 or on Route 9? Reason I ask is this: I am getting ready to go on a trip to Jefferson County in West Virginia. Me and my snow lovin friends in Dale City have decided we would like to take a vacation away from the meltfest here lol, and they really think I should take a break from digging snow and just enjoy the scenery for a change lol. So - How are the roads? Is Rt 7 and 9 passable? Thanks in advance They are pretty good. Downtown not so great. But quick get here because it is melting rapidly even at 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Jeb, They are actually in great shape. But the left lane is pinched in places. Just be prepared to dive right at a moments notice. I have no is how they will get schools cleared for Monday. Mountains of snow to remove from what I see and nowhere to put it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Thanks Clueless. We'll be passing thru Paeonian Springs once we turn onto Route 9. might even try going farther west where they got 42 inches at Glengary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Well this time last week we were all pretty pumped up and not much sleep. Blizzard Warning was in effect. There were a few concerns with mixing, the dryslot and who would really get jackpotted but I wish we could rewind the clock and do it all over again. Knowing what we know nowö I would of went to bed from 6am until 1pm because not much snow accumulated during this time in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Well this time last week we were all pretty pumped up and not much sleep. Blizzard Warning was in effect. There were a few concerns with mixing, the dryslot and who would really get jackpotted but I wish we could rewind the clock and do it all over again. Knowing what we know nowö I would of went to bed from 6am until 1pm because not much snow accumulated during this time in my area. It's hard to go back to reading about indices and patterns after 8 straight days of every model showing historic snow region wide. I'm itching to get back within operational range of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 It's hard to go back to reading about indices and patterns after 8 straight days of every model showing historic snow region wide. I'm itching to get back within operational range of a storm. We'll get back there soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I put this together on the leadup to the storm. #selfpat http://www.ianlivingston.com/blizzard-of-2016-the-art-of-sniffing-out-a-long-range-snowstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I put this together on the leadup to the storm. #selfpat http://www.ianlivingston.com/blizzard-of-2016-the-art-of-sniffing-out-a-long-range-snowstorm/ Lol Well done! Lots of good info there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Agreed to the idea that a HECS is much much harder to recover from than a MECS. Walking around my few blocks it's worse out there now than the day immediately after 2/14, lol. (15.5" total in that one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vance1167 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 GMU opened yesterday at 12pm then closed at 7pm to reopen today at 10am. I don't think I've ever seen that -- very strange. This is officially a HECS now in my book. 2 classes cancelled and 28 hours off of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 i'll be craving another snowstorm by the end of next week. backloaded winters are the new winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Agreed to the idea that a HECS is much much harder to recover from than a MECS. Walking around my few blocks it's worse out there now than the day immediately after 2/14, lol. (15.5" total in that one). a hecs just has that "look" to it. for me, it has to do with the cars. when cars are almost or completely covered, we've had a hecs. and 2/14 was an underrated storm here. overnight it just piled up. classic mecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 According to you my totals are always a joke. So no need to overexert my precious ruler. taking this out of the DCA thread -- please show me where I've said your totals are joke? Would you like me to show you how I've kept your totals in my maps the last two years? If they were joke... they wouldn't be on the maps. If you wish to not submit snow totals for this year, then so be it. That is on you, and I will go ahead and remove your name from the list. But for the sake of my data, and the maps I make for this forum to enjoy at seasons end, please do not submit someone else's data for your location. Just submit your own. Besides, if you don't slant stick, like you claim I have said you do, then what do you have to worry about? Your totals would fit right in with everyone else's around you. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Montgomery County schools out for the week... Basically another winter break and this time it's not beach weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Stopped in Charles Town for the time being. Its mostly cloudy here, about 35 degrees by my thermo, and locals say they received 40 inches. Not sure how much snow is on the ground but there is a LOT! Roads are fine here. Some ppl here are not yet dug out. I saw a lot of drifts in fields on Route 7. Lot of snow along Route 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 It's hard to keep track of the ensembles/indices but wasn't there a period maybe 2 weeks before the blizzard when the ensemble runs were all depressing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Two guys just walked past me on the street. Guy 1 to guy 2: "Yeah, the ensembles in the long range suggest we could have another foot of snow in mid-February" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Two guys just walked past me on the street. Guy 1 to guy 2: "Yeah, the ensembles in the long range suggest we could have another foot of snow in mid-February" It's the new thing to talk about at happy hour. Everyone at work was talking about how terrible DCA snow measurement is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Montgomery County schools out for the week... Basically another winter break and this time it's not beach weather Ridiculous, No excuse for lack of a plan after 2010, and everyone being afraid of frivolous lawsuits is probably also a contributing factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Ah, Kevin Ambrose's National Mall benches comparison photos: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/26/photos-bench-marks-show-snowzilla-ranks-near-among-the-top-d-c-snowstorms/ These comparison pics aren't all taken the same amount of time after the snow ends, but it certainly supports the idea that this storm was up there with the all-time top ones inside of DC. The park bench level was close to the combined snow level of both 2/10 storms, especially when you look at some of the lower pics (like the one comparing to 2009). I love that Knickerbocker car comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 ^ The "snowzilla" thing is just so f'ing stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It's a lot of snow. I have a hard time imagining there's not some drifting being photo'ed in some from this year. This storm had some serious drifting in the city. Nothing I've seen here compares though perhaps there's an event someone else remembers. The second Feb 2010 storm had a lot of drifting but a lot less snow on its own and the other stuff was basically cement. I do still sort of have the impression there's more snow than Snowmageddon though even with the drifting factored in. There were spots that had the post second storm look at times though I have some comparisons around here and Feb 10 2010 was definitely the depth winner heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I put this together on the leadup to the storm. #selfpat http://www.ianlivingston.com/blizzard-of-2016-the-art-of-sniffing-out-a-long-range-snowstorm/ I just saw this post. Really really good stuff, Ian. It's like a grail of what to look for. The hardest thing for an enthusiast to do is translate long lead ens potential into sensible wx. It's taken me forever and I've mostly just scratched the surface. The smoothing of the means can easily make a casual observer either miss the signal or dive head first too quickly. The combination of tracking changes in the mean look and hedging the most likely sensible wx down the line is the true art of long lead forecasting. I personally really love the puzzle of D10+. It takes effort to hedge and discuss. It's never glaring or easy. But when it all comes together it makes it so worth it. Long lead forecasting will always humble or surprise more often than not but victories can be claimed. Nice job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Thanks, Bob. It's a bit oversimplified probably. There are a multitude of factors that went into such an event of course. I won't pretend to know what tropical forcing set off the specific wave train that eventually became the storm or whatnot but there are certain looks you have to respect I think. You and others were also quite bullish on the period well ahead of time as well. It is neat to see the evolution of ideas. A fuzzy picture slowly becoming clearer, sometimes at least. That AO drop was the stuff. Then the NAO config. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 So there are two bobcat-looking front loaders that have been right outside my window for the past 70 minutes clearing the right lane of Rockville Pike (Rt 355) that hadn't been touched yet. The aren't nearly done yet, and are only working on a stretch of road only 100 ft in length. (If just this takes them more than an hour....?!?!) Our region plainly is just not equipped to recover from a HECS, given that it's taken 5 days to reach the all-lane clearing stage on primary roads. So what's new is OPM's strategy of two 3-hr delay days preceding the first on-time opening day. I think that actually has/will help prevent the complete disaster that the first commute has been for all the past HECS. It's like the past two days have been dress rehearsals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 So there are two bobcat-looking front loaders that have been right outside my window for the past 70 minutes clearing the right lane of Rockville Pike (Rt 355) that hadn't been touched yet. The aren't nearly done yet, and are only working on a stretch of road only 100 ft in length. (If just this takes them more than an hour....?!?!) Our region plainly is just not equipped to recover from a HECS, given that it's taken 5 days to reach the all-lane clearing stage on primary roads. So what's new is OPM's strategy of two 3-hr delay days proceeding the first on-time opening day. I think that actually has/will help prevent the complete disaster that the first commute has been for all the past HECS. It's like the past two days have been dress rehearsals. Imagine if it had been cold after the storm. Think a big chunk of feds have Fri telework option too so hopefully tomorrow won't be a meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Imagine if it had been cold after the storm. You know I like lists, lol: 1/1966- Cold but not frigid. DCA was 16/9 and 17/11 on the days of the storm. The next week was cold with highs in the mid-to-upper 30's and lows in the 10's to 20's. 2/1979- Post storm was warm. Two days after the snow ended, DCA was 56/33, and then the station never went below freezing again until the snow melted. 2/1983- Temps were very similar to 1/2016's post storm trend for the first couple of days, and then it diverged. There wasn't a refreeze like we had last night, and snow cover was gone before DCA dropped below freezing again for the last few days. 1/1987- The great thing about this period was that it got seriously cold between the two storms. But you have to combine the two storms to consider the period a HECS period. The two days in between at DCA were 33/13 and 28/11. The second storm was cold powder. And then, the two days after the second storm at DCA were 30/9 and 32/7. But a week after the second storm and DCA was back to 52/33 in early February. 1/1996- So, I think this is close to the best post-HECS week for DCA if cold is important. The great blizzard ends with a DCA day of 30/20. The clipper moves in the next morning to drop 2.6" of snow with a DCA 27/15. Then: 34/19, 25/14, and finally 31/20 was the day of the third storm that was 4-10" throughout the region. Yes, the *following* week torched, but not during the week immediately following the blizzard. 2/2003- Temps were somewhat below average for that late in February. The last day that snow fell (Tuesday's upper low snow showers) was a 44/26 day at DCA. But then there was the 2-3" of cold rain that fell starting two days after the last snow. That's a tighter timeline than 12/09. 12/2009- Lows were in the mid-to-upper 20's and highs were in the upper-30's to around 40 at DCA for 5 days after the storm until the Christmas Day rain massacre that killed off the snowpack. So once again it was cold but not frigid. 2/2010- Lows post 2/5-6/10 were a very cold 16, 21, 22, 20 at DCA which carried through to the end of the second storm. Highs were low-to-mid 30's. After the second storm, DCA stayed in the 37-41 F for a high for the next whole week, and lows were below freezing (mostly in the upper 20's but a couple of around 20 F lows). So it was decently cold for the time of year, but nothing frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Many locals here in Charles Town believe they received 40 to 42 inches of snow in the Blizzard. Some say Charles Town got 30 inches and that it was Harpers Ferry that got the 40-42 inches. At any rate, there is a TREMENDOUS amount of snow up here in West Virginia. I am worn out from trying to walk in this snowpack. It appears to be 19 to 22 inches deep. In Dale City the snow pack is 9 to 12 inches deep, more where drifts are. I can't even begin to imagine what 40 inches of snow looked like last Sunday right after the storm. I would have loved to dig my Jebman shovel into that fresh snow! At times on Route 9, I could barely see things beyond the roadside --- the damn snowpack was too deep lmao. It was NOT the roadside snowpiles. It was the damned AMBIENT SNOWPACK! This place was hit HARD, absolutely DEMOLISHED by Snowzilla. I am glad I checked it out. I'm in a hotel and will head back early Friday morning. The weather news for the coming next few days is not good. Don't look at it. Instead, look ahead to Feb 6th and beyond. Thats much better. This was a fulfilling chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Many locals here in Charles Town believe they received 40 to 42 inches of snow in the Blizzard. Some say Charles Town got 30 inches and that it was Harpers Ferry that got the 40-42 inches. At any rate, there is a TREMENDOUS amount of snow up here in West Virginia. I am worn out from trying to walk in this snowpack. It appears to be 19 to 22 inches deep. In Dale City the snow pack is 9 to 12 inches deep, more where drifts are. I can't even begin to imagine what 40 inches of snow looked like last Sunday right after the storm. I would have loved to dig my Jebman shovel into that fresh snow! At times on Route 9, I could barely see things beyond the roadside --- the damn snowpack was too deep lmao. It was NOT the roadside snowpiles. It was the damned AMBIENT SNOWPACK! This place was hit HARD, absolutely DEMOLISHED by Snowzilla. I am glad I checked it out. I'm in a hotel and will head back early Friday morning. The weather news for the coming next few days is not good. Don't look at it. Instead, look ahead to Feb 6th and beyond. Thats much better. This was a fulfilling chase. Glad you got to see it before it's gone. Pretty impressive stuff. Maybe you can hit a local distillery on your way back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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