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No snow for you

Storm Banter & Complaint Thread, Jan 22-23

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I added up GSO's liquid equivalent and we're at 0.86".  Maybe, if we're lucky we can work towards 0.9" or maybe on a long shot 1.0" with tonight/tomorrow's snow showers, but that is much lower than any model had.  So disappointing.  Of course, temps were our real issue, but that did not help, either.

 

Great storm, and historic in some ways with the quantity of sleet, though.  It is what it is.  It didn't look like we would get anything when I first started following this five days ago.  I should be pretty enthused about doing as well as we did with a Miller B, though.  That almost never happens here (last time was PD3 in 2003?... though we did get a few front-end inches from Snowmaggedon 2010).

 

Hope we can score next week (not too enthused about it at this point, but we'll see).

 

DC's 2"+ QPF will probably verify, though.  Actually, I hope it does.  I hope to read some fantastic OBS tonight/tomorrow.  At least I can live vicariously...

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I don't know how old you are, but why you got your hopes up for snow here is beyond me........has Atlanta proper EVER gotten a decent snow with the low pressure center tracking this far to the north? That's why I thought there was virtually no chance of accumulating snow here.........listen, I've been here for 40 years and there are 3 scenarios which DO NOT equal Atlanta snowfall

1. A low pressure that tracks far inland instead of hugging the gulf coast

2. Clippers.....we win the lottery if we get a slight dusting

3. Back end, comma head, deformation bands (unless the low pressure tracks sufficiently to the south I.e. March '93.

Look at these 3 criteria....if any of them apply to a forecasted storm, then chances of disappointment are virtually 100%.

 

That's the frustrating thing, these aforementioned type of scenarios are common in the winter.  The area almost never gets a perfect scenario of a Gulf low that stays slightly off shore with sufficient Arctic air in place to bring a generous snowfall of 3''.  Those only occur only once every 5 years which is so annoying.  Most of the time Gulf lows either are too far inland (like you mentioned) or there is enough Arctic air place for the wintry prep to be mostly or all snow.  Atlanta and Birmingham are always 2 southern inland major cities always missed on snow and always dealing with the news of others getting snowfall less than 200 miles away.  Yet we are both always cold as h*ll every winter.

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still waiting on radar to blossom, some said when that coastal took over radar was going fill in and go nuts!!!   I'm going say it one more time. coastal's are no good this far west............ 

It did, just over the NE part of the state.

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The amt of precip is a joke here in CAE. I have a glaze from frozen drizzle. Wtf are these backend returns I keep hearing about? The radar is north and east of us. Crazy.

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It did, just over the NE part of the state.

I know, I was just making my case to some from earlier today! They thought we would get some from it once it got going.... That a coastal low almost never throws moisture this far back. That's all i was saying..... Foothills is just to far west for a coastal storm, there are some exceptions but not many, I don't think...... 

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Can we have a banter/complaint/meltdown thread for every big storm from now on?

 

God, this is fun to read.

:axe:  I have to admit, it was funny seeing so many NC folks complaining about the ice and sleet and the warm nose when I said it yesterday. This was always a upper south/mid-Atlantic storm. The fact that we got this much was great enough. I just can't help that it reminded me of January 2014 for me where I never ended up changing over from ice/sleet to all snow so I had like an inch of sleet, then like half of an inch of ice. I was so mad. Just 20-25 miles northwest, they got like 4+ inches of snow(some even more). Since then I've never underestimated the warm nose.

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Atleast DC is still getting their 20-30"! :(

 

 

yay, that makes me happy happy happy!!!  :axe:

 

The mix in RIC couldn't have happened to a more deserving jerk; feel bad for the real folks though.

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00z CMC more mtn. action next week?

 

This is the storm Bastardi said reminded him of March '93 or something.  :yikes:

 

The 12z Euro and more so the EPS showed some potential with that one, actually.  So does the 00z UKMET.  Figure it's a long-shot, but eh.  Temps look problematic.

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:axe:  I have to admit, it was funny seeing so many NC folks complaining about the ice and sleet and the warm nose when I said it yesterday. This was always a upper south/mid-Atlantic storm. The fact that we got this much was great enough. I just can't help that it reminded me of January 2014 for me where I never ended up changing over from ice/sleet to all snow so I had like an inch of sleet, then like half of an inch of ice. I was so mad. Just 20-25 miles northwest, they got like 4+ inches of snow(some even more). Since then I've never underestimated the warm nose.

It's all about expectations. Right now I've got about 3--maybe 4 inches of mostly heavy sleet outside my door. That is not an every winter occurence, and is actually pretty awesome.  That stuff will be around for days. The kids were outside today sledding and they'll be out there tomorrow and probably Sunday. Sure, it would have been great if it was 8-12 inches of mostly snow. If I had really wanted to believe that was going to happen, I could have found a model or clown map in the past couple days showing that exact scenario. I could have also found a model/ensemble showing WAA overtaking everything after a quick winter shot and then warm rain that melts everything. Ultimately, the results will be somewhere between those extremes.
 
This might sound a little silly. But sometimes I think we forget that the weather we get was always going to happen. Regardless of what the models were showing at any particular time, and regardless of what was forecasted by the NWS or any trusted met. That's not a knock on the models or those that know their stuff and do weather prediction as a job or a hobby. It's just so hard to predict the finer details and what's ultimately going to happen.
 
Expectations. I feel bad for Charlie Brown when he tries kicking the ball, and Lucy pulls it out from him and he's always disappointed. But Lucy has done this before right? Charlie Brown even says so. But Lucy is always able to convince him. C'mon Charlie Brown..I've done it before. I won't take away the ball at the last second THIS time.  Somehow ol' Charlie Brown falls for it, even though he should probably know better. 
 
Now did I hear mention about another possible storm next week? :P

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Maybe I'm being a weenie but I'm in Williamsburg, VA and in the last hour we've gone from rain back over to heavy sleet with some random flakes mixing in. The temperature at West Point has also dropped a degree in the last hour back down to 32 with a 31 dewpoint and a NW wind.

 

Has the rain snow line stopped advancing towards RIC? No doubt colder air is mixing into the NW Virginia Peninsula while Wakefield had the temps progged to be in the mid-upper 30s by midnight. 

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CAE cant win. Snow is sliding southeast under us. South of I20(Lexington, Aiken) you win. Hell Charleston will out due Chapin.

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My wife is in Jonas Ridge, Burke Co (NC) mountains along the escarpment. She sent me a picture where she measured 17" of snow on the ground. It has been snowing most of the week up there so there was some snow already on the ground.  I'm guessing 10-14" has fallen in that locale.

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..........

Wxrisk.com

4 hrs ·

ADJUSTED FORECAST FROM NOON TO 1AM SUNDAY and the BUSTED FORECAST

Well it is time ro make some adjustments to the forecast and the figure out what the heck one wrong here in south central Virginia. This image shows my new forecast for the second half of the storm which takes as into late Sunday night and early Monday morning. There is not much to change over northern half of Virginia Maryland Southeast Pennsylvania New Jersey Southern Maryland or up towards New York City. I have increases snow mounts over New York City and nor the New Jersey as well as Long Island

I have course dramatically lower the snow amounts in and around the Richmond metro area because of the disasterous performance of all of the weather models over the past several days. Whether OR not we get the heavy wraparound snow that the short range models continue to insist will reach south central Virginia and into the southern Piedmont is open for debate. I am very skeptical that this is going to happen even though many the short range models insist that will. Certainly the areas south of interstate 64 and Richmond will see much less wraparound snow the areas north of interstate 64 in Central Virginia.

The short range model data continues to insist that the Northern Neck and a good portion the Middle Peninsula regions WILL get hammered with heavy snow on Saturday as the coastal LOW storm continues to wind up. That being said even through the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula areas are not far away for Richmond the close proximity is not in any way a guarantee that the snow will reach Richmond or south side..

eVsi0s6.jpg

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CAE cant win. Snow is sliding southeast under us. South of I20(Lexington, Aiken) you win. Hell Charleston will out due Chapin.

 

Loving our dusting in Martinez! Not too much, but it's covering the ground (and the car)! For maybe just one person, this storm delivered exactly what was forecast - dusting to a 1/2".

 

Shawn may be pleased this morning...

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Poor DT....he has to bust along with the rest of us. Dont get me wrong, I am cool with my 4-5" of whatever it is in the triad. But thats a long way from a foot and all the hype leading up to this event. We've all been here before and had those crushing last minute defeats (I'm a Bengals fan folks, I can take it) but I sure would like to know why the short range models as well as the Euro and GFS didnt seem to pick up on the strength and duration of the warm nose. NAM scored the win from 48-72 out IMO. Looking forward to learning from the post event insights.

And we're on to next week!

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For the first time in my life, backside snow actually panned out here! It's still coming down lightly.  Looks like the Upstate really jackpotted for this event. I believe places from traveler's rest to Inman got more snow than most area's in Central NC.

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