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Models have come into pretty good agreement on a follow up wave impacting the region later this week. Details still to be ironed out but at a Day 3 lead the signal is strong. We have global indices favorable. As you see in the images there is a nice PNA spike and the AO is negative around the time of the storm. I would bot be surprised to see this come a bit closer to the coast with the PNA spiking like it is. Also enclosed are the EPS and GEFS from 00z and 06z. Nice solid >0.5" for most of SNE on the mean.
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Let weenies and negative nellies unite. Please put all banter and my back yard questions here.
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I personally think November 2015 will be warmer than average, CFS has strongly been trending warmer than average since August. The CanSIPS model has also been trending warmer than average. Precipitation forecasts from CanSIPs and CFS also analyze above average. Now the Jamstec model is a bit different. It predicts a warmer than average November for areas east of the MS river excluding IL,WI, and MN. But it then predicts a cooler than average November for areas west of the MS river, east of the Rockies. That is the September run and the October run should come in in a couple of days. I do think our "Second Tornado Season", could be good. The last El Nino analogs I found have had Late Fall-Early Winter tornado outbreaks. This next list of outbreaks all happened in El Nino conditions in November. November 22-24, 2004, 2002 Veteran's Day Outbreak, 1987 Arklatex tornado outbreak, and so on.
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From looking at models and extended forecast discussions, it appears that severe weather is possibly Wednesday, April 1st through Friday, April 3rd. SPC has outlined a slight risk for portions of Eastern KS, Northwestern MO, Eastern NE, Western IA, Extreme Southeastern SD, and Extreme Sounthern WI for Wednesday. They have also outlined 15% areas for D4 and D5 in areas of Dixie Alley for Thursday and Friday. Opinions?
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