sauss06 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Crazy as it might seem, I think this looks like a really good call. Good luck! Yea, i agree. Looks reasonable. Nice job Hoffman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yea, i agree. Looks reasonable. Nice job Hoffman. Especially if that banding sets up just right Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This thing is pulling an impressive amount of moisture, even as far south as Cuba! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 my best guess...these could easily have to be bumped north a bit as banding along the NW edge often sets up a little NW of progs. We will see GOAT.png Good job Hoffman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The radar presentation of this storm is unbelievable. Just astonishing, really. It's moving faster than pegged though - will they impact the stall at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SS93 Pretty impressive image!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's so hard to believe that thing is going to only give us northerners an inch or two of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Light Snow has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For prosperity: Tonight Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 29. Blustery, with a north wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow, mainly before 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 1am. Low around 17. Northwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlleghanyBlade Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Starting to get flurries now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 WWA just went up for WIlkes-Barre/Scranton areas for 3 to 6 inches but not in the actual cities. PAZ044-047-048-072-231930-/O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0002.160123T0600Z-160124T1200Z/LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...MILFORD...HONESDALE230 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AMEST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAYTO 7 AM EST SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION IN NORTHEASTPENNSYLVANIA.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY SATURDAYEVENING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF WILKES-BARRE, SCRANTON, CARBONDALE, AND HONESDALE. WILKES-BARRE ANDSCRANTON THEMSELVES, AS WELL AS SURROUNDING VALLEY CITIES, ARELIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 INCHES OR LESS.* TIMING...SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, GENERALLYBETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. THE STEADIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TOFALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TRENDSATURDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATEDSURFACES.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON SATURDAY.* TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT[email protected]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For prosperity: That is one prosperous forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's so hard to believe that thing is going to only give us northerners an inch or two of snow. Any NYC 12 to 20 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I figured us northerners could all use a good laugh...what better to do that than the NAM. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=accsnow&rh=2016012218&fh=24&r=ma&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Accumulating light snow has begun here in Carlisle. Dusting on my car already. Temp 23.6 DP 14.5, so expecting a bit more of a drop in temp with evaporative cooling. Are we going to start a separate obs thread for this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Accumulating light snow has begun here in Carlisle. Dusting on my car already. Temp 23.6 DP 14.5, so expecting a bit more of a drop in temp with evaporative cooling. Are we going to start a separate obs thread for this?? That sounds like a good idea. Going along with that, would it be possible for the nice member location map to be pinned and placed in its own thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That sounds like a good idea. Going along with that, would it be possible for the nice member location map to be pinned and placed in its own thread? would I be able to add it to the links thread that is pinned? (as long as it is ok with everyone) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 would I be able to add it to the links thread that is pinned? I think that would work; it should be easy to find if it stays the most recent post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 would I be able to add it to the links thread that is pinned? (as long as it is ok with everyone) Thats fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 18z NAM is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 18z NAM is hilarious. Yep, it gives me in Pittsburgh close to a foot. Is it showing you getting 5 feet lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Parking lot at work covered in Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So anyone have a thought why the NAM is throwing up such insane numbers for LSV? I mean...I want to believe but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 18z NAM is hilarious. wow someone shot a hole through south pa. if that came close to verifying.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So anyone have a thought why the NAM is throwing up such insane numbers for LSV? I mean...I want to believe but.... no clue... everyone says not to believe it since it is almost off on its own vs all other guidance but have not seen it proven to be wrong yet either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Light snow now falling in downtown Harrisburg. Here's to 62" of snow the NAM is promising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So anyone have a thought why the NAM is throwing up such insane numbers for LSV? I mean...I want to believe but.... My question would be, has any model ever shown 50+" of snow, from one storm, for the LSV? If not then it cannot be totally thrown out. Models routinely shows 2-3 feet snows that are just fantasy and do not happen but something this strange has to at least be considered. If MDT ends up with 22" the name will have busted by almost 30"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 rea forecast discussionNational Weather Service State College PA 314 PM EST Friday Jan 22 2016 Synopsis... a major winter storm will impact south-central Pennsylvania later Friday into Saturday night. The heaviest snowfall is expected to be across southern sections...especially from the Pennsylvania Turnpike to the Maryland border. && Near term /until midnight tonight/... latest radar imagery...surface observation...and web cams show light snow has moved into southern PA...a bit ahead of schedule. This initial band should fade out before restarting again in earnest later this evening. && Short term /midnight tonight through Saturday night/... general core guidance advertising a significant snow storm for the middle Atlantic continues with little change in overall solutions. However...after wpc and regional coordination call this afternoon have to consider the more northward solutions of the NAM/sref ensemble members and slight northward shift shown by the GFS/ECMWF. This shift will push the northern edge of accumulating snow a bit northward...and necessitate an increase in the total snowfall amounts. This will put a forecast of over 2 feet of storm total snow over southern parts of our County Warning Area...namely from Adams County northeastward across parts of York and Lancaster counties. Over southern counties expect synoptic snow totals to be enhanced by areas of convection/thunder snow late tonight and early Saturday. Here local snow amounts could exceed 30 inches. Will hold on to winter storm warnings for all counties where it is currently issued. Close inspection of wind fields from numerical guidance does not support reaching winds speeds needed to exceed blizzard criteria. However...poor visibilities in heavy snow and strong winds will likely create blizzard-like conditions later tonight into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sauss and Greg if ur still posting, put pics on Facebook and lots of them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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