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stormtracker

January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter

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wxbell snowmap:

 

20 DCA

11 IAD

16 BWI

1 HGR

30+ Fredericksburg and south

 

Thats quite a contrast between IAD and DCA... wow

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22-24. SBY 19.

 

I think in most cases this is exactly where we'd want to be at this range but it's a little disconcerting nonetheless.

 

Thanks Ian.  Better than two inches of slop then cold rain.  Don't expect it to hold though.  The Atlantic is awfully warm this year.

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The GFS and GEFS are money so maybe it is outlier. Or maybe now that is on shore there is more data.

 

I doubt it...GFS would have saw it too. As Bob said, this is probably an off S run. I don't see it going any further.

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I've been waiting for this. Of course hoping it wouldn't happen. But we've never had a long lead storm not scare us a few times as we close in. Euro could be right of course but I would have to assume this is probably close to as south as you can go.

I'm not worried, but if the GFS comes out with even the slightest shift south, there will be pandemonium in this place. Warranted or irrational.

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If it's any comfort the GFS blew away the ECMWF with the last system. Which means absolutely nothing.

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I've been waiting for this. Of course hoping it wouldn't happen. But we've never had a long lead storm not scare us a few times as we close in. Euro could be right of course but I would have to assume this is probably close to as south as you can go. 

I agree. We were due for a weird run like this. Oddly it still has me basically the same at 20". I am on the northern edge of the good stuff instead of the southern edge lol

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Think RIC had a foot in one of the late Jan 2010 storms that missed D.C., like a week before Feb 5/6 2010.

RIC hasn't had a foot since 1983, I think.

 

Other parts of the metro area, yes, Jan 2010 is I believe the most recent.

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And (hopefully not banter), I'd rather be on the colder side at this point. Hard to believe with the anomalously warm Atlantic shelf waters and such a dynamic system we won't see a nudge back northward. At least for the cities on east.

I think you remember RIC being in the bullseye 48 hours out in 2003, and how it worked out.  IIRC, those same NWP schemes showed nothing north of Baltimore and widespread 2'+ for all of CVA but clearly did not come to pass.

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??  dude   12 hrs  the 0z run for RIC  had  2" of snow   GEFS  5"

 

The GFS and GEFS are money so maybe it is outlier. Or maybe now that is on shore there is more data.

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I just digs deeper early on and keeps everything south. It's the same solution synoptically just in a different place. lol

 

Yeah, you are skilled at this but does it make sense meteorologically that the 500 mb low should move east

in this situation?

My understanding is that as these troughs deepen, they tend to move

poleward and in this situation, there is no convergence zone north of the trough.  So why

would it trend east rather than NE?

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A few thoughts from a lurker...

  1. Each model run is more important than the last.  When the latest run of the best model out there makes a shift, you should take notice and not just assume it is some sort of blip.
  2. Watching the storms over the years, they typically do tend to shift to the NW as the vent draws near.  This winter, however, is not a typical winter and with the strong confluence to the north that is far from a guarantee.

My $.02

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Almost half of the snow totals through the corridor come from a narrow deform band (2 counties wide) as the low departs. Totals look good. Details look a little scary. 

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A few thoughts from a lurker...

  1. Each model run is more important than the last.  When the latest run of the best model out there makes a shift, you should take notice and not just assume it is some sort of blip.
  2. Watching the storms over the years, they typically do tend to shift to the NW as the vent draws near.  This winter, however, is not a typical winter and with the strong confluence to the north that is far from a guarantee.

My $.02

This makes sense, but we've seen a shift NW (in the limited instances we've seen dynamic systems) this winter as well.

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Almost half of the snow totals through the corridor come from a narrow deform band (2 counties wide) as the low departs. Totals look good. Details look a little scary. 

 

Point of fact, an awful way to try and save snow totals - too easy to have that set up south or east. Completely gone on that run is anything on the front side, basically, no over-running from the low.

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Yeah, you are skilled at this but does it make sense meteorologically that the 500 mb low should move east

in this situation?

My understanding is that as these troughs deepen, they tend to move

poleward and in this situation, there is no convergence zone north of the trough.  So why

would it trend east rather than NE?

 

It's pretty crazy at the surface too. It looks weird. 986 low about 100 miles SSE of OBX but then the ULL grabs it and tucks a 985 right over VA beach. Then stretched out double barrel style low as it departs. Northern edge is absolutely brutal. I'm sure it's possible but it looks a little crazy when you loop the panels. 

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Almost half of the snow totals through the corridor come from a narrow deform band (2 counties wide) as the low departs. Totals look good. Details look a little scary. 

That's something to think about for sure...we definitely don't want to rely on a deform band 3 days out.

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A few thoughts from a lurker...

  1. Each model run is more important than the last.  When the latest run of the best model out there makes a shift, you should take notice and not just assume it is some sort of blip.
  2. Watching the storms over the years, they typically do tend to shift to the NW as the vent draws near.  This winter, however, is not a typical winter and with the strong confluence to the north that is far from a guarantee.

My $.02

 

At this point it's too early to know. It could be a legit change, but unless it stays consistent and/or other guidance makes similar shifts, you can't just make such a rash change to the forecast. 

 

Also being the best model isn't the same as always being right.

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It's pretty crazy at the surface too. It looks weird. 986 low about 100 miles SSE of OBX but then the ULL grabs it and tucks a 985 right over VA beach. Then stretched out double barrel style low as it departs. Northern edge is absolutely brutal. I'm sure it's possible but it looks a little crazy when you loop the panels. 

 

Different set-up obviously, but didn't something similar happen with that March 2013 snow that we didn't get (white rain basically) while south central Virginia cashed in?

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Almost half of the snow totals through the corridor come from a narrow deform band (2 counties wide) as the low departs. Totals look good. Details look a little scary.

Definetly a bothersome run. Delayed is rarely good in itself. Plus is it won't take much to get it back.

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Definetly a bothersome run. Delayed is rarely good in itself. Plus is it won't take much to get it back.

 

Euro hanging things back per usual? Maybe..

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Definetly a bothersome run. Delayed is rarely good in itself. Plus is it won't take much to get it back.

Agreed, we can't ignore it, but we also can't embrace it.

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50 mile bump north and all is well.

I liken this to a catch/non-catch call in a football game. Officials will go "under the hood", look at the EPS, and come back and "wave off" the operational EC :)

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