Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 pretty crazy agreement. it's interesting to note the 06z 4km nam continues to show sub freezing temps making down the spine of the mountains to near gainesville/dawsonville by 09z to 12z friday. if you went by dewpoints, even further south and sooner. I'm feeling like at the least there is going to be a narrow area of major icing from dawson, hall, lumpkin, white, hambersham, rabun counties...especially so for areas around the 1500 to 2000 foot level..which is usually the sweet spot of coldest temps. Makes me wonder what a euro solution would spell for these areas since the nam is further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 it's interesting to note the 06z 4km nam continues to show sub freezing temps making down the spine of the mountains to near gainesville/dawsonville by 09z to 12z friday. if you went by dewpoints, even further south and sooner. I'm feeling like at the least there is going to be a narrow area of major icing from dawson, hall, lumpkin, white, hambersham, rabun counties...especially so for areas around the 1500 to 2000 foot level..which is usually the sweet spot of coldest temps. Makes me wonder what a euro solution would spell for these areas since the nam is further north. Do you know why everyone was freaking out abut the NAM and GFS? I'm trying to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I want to know why people prefer the Euro, especially the EPS low locations. The 06z GEFS has a line of low locations along the coast of NC, essentially along the OBX. While the 00z EPS has lows way inland and the majority of them in tech coastal plains. Keep in mind I'm not talking about ULL placement or the S/W...just talking about the surface low track. At least for MBY, jon, I like that the euro takes me from snow to sleet to snow. I'm being selfish though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What's amazing to think about is if you start taking the most extreme parts of each model's solutions -- GFS's QPF + NAM's temp profile would obviously mean the Ice Storm of the Ages for favored CAD regions. Of course, it could work the other way, too. Sure is hard to remember a true GFS-by-itself coup on a CAD event. Probably because it hasn't happened .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 At least for MBY, jon, I like that the euro takes me from snow to sleet to snow. I'm being selfish though.I understand that, that's fine. Hopefully we can all get on the same page with one solution. I try not to have biases towards one solution, but GEFS does have more agreement with regards to surface low track for sure. Of course anything can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It is VERY rare in this part of the country to get a strong "all snow" storm outside the mtns. It will inevitably transition or change as the dreaded WAA comes into play as the low strenghtens and bring a mix bag, sometimes at the beginning and sometimes in the middle. As the low pulls away, some parts see some backside snows which can also accumulate and this storm looks like no exception Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Do you know why everyone was freaking out abut the NAM and GFS? I'm trying to figure it out. No real reason other than It all depends one where one lives. what's good for some is bad for others and vise versa. People are going to root for whatever gives them the most most of the time and crap on the models that don't. Well?.....are you off to Lowes? Take this trivial stuff to the banter thread. Going to start handing out warnings if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just a note, WeatherBell has crashed. I assume the traffic to look at the maps was more than their server could handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 24hr 12z nam just an FYI is comparable to 6z so far no huge differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I want to know why people prefer the Euro, especially the EPS low locations. The 06z GEFS has a line of low locations along the coast of NC, essentially along the OBX. While the 00z EPS has lows way inland and the majority of them in tech coastal plains. Keep in mind I'm not talking about ULL placement or the S/W...just talking about the surface low track. Pretty simple the American models first where sending primary up through KY and waa destroyed cad, since they are stubornly correcting to the euro,can,ukie,jma,nogaps and atleast keeping the ull together west to east before transfer of energy to coast and not double barreling the ull and coastal to dellmarva before fully transferring energy miller b to castal. The euro and it's ens have been steadfast in doing this keeping ull consolidated and rolling across AL GA before capturing the coastal at charleston. I see why you and really all of us would like a track futher east from charleston to off obx as opposed to over the inner banks sound. But make no mistake the gfs atleast finally ditched the primary KY crazy idea, and folded to euro on that,however it wants to take ull from TN through NC/ SC line to MYB/Wilmington and the let coastal take over. That ULL track does us no good and really the starting point of the coastal is at the same lattitude and has less time to throw backside moisture out our way and down into GA and SC. Hope this helps. Last night euro run of crawling the ULL to our south would pummel alot of folks. It's clown is truly pure snow and not diluted with sleet frzng rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM is digging more!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I can already declare NAM will be much better Vort much stronger! 12Z trends NAM: ↥ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 As someone who watches coastal weather for fishing conditions like some look at snow maps, My experience is models have little success at predicting where a surface low will transfer between Myrtle and Norfolk, and less what it will do when it gets out there and how soon it will move out. I've had plenty trips ruined by a stubborn low caught in Onslow Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 @36 there is much more precip blossoming but relatively speaking the low still has about the same placement as 6z did. Digging on the backside a little bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I can already declare NAM will be much better Vort much stronger! 12Z trends NAM: ↥ Er, only a very small amount- basically the same so far from what I see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Er, only a very small amount- basically the same so far from what I see.... Yea, but the vort upstream is much greater meaning it should dig more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 As someone who watches coastal weather for fishing conditions like some look at snow maps, My experience is models have little success at predicting where a surface low will transfer between Myrtle and Norfolk, and less what it will do when it gets out there and how soon it will move out. I've had plenty trips ruined by a stubborn low caught in Onslow Bay. All about that baroclinicity that is caused b/c of the contast of the Gulf Stream and lanmass and the interaction of the Appalachins. Saw in a 6 month period in 1999-2000 that same effect exacerbate the historic flooding of Hurricane Floyd and the helped crank up the "Big One" of January 24-25, 2000 in Central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks diggier to me @39 but as Cheez said not a huge jump compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thought I would post this up take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It appears @GregPostel just posted a initial thoughts on icestorm in Carolinas. looks like >.5 in Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Er, only a very small amount- basically the same so far from what I see.... Looks like it's ~50 miles more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 @39 one thing I notice on the nam is the amount of precip it is showing out ahead of the ULL. It is a lot more than modeled from this morning. Not sure how that will affect the cad. If that ULL could just take a Miller A route we would all be in much better shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thought I would post this up take it with a grain of salt. At least they arent being conservative and are actually showing what looks like might happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We shouldn't expect wholesale changes in the models today. The window is closing for that to happen. Yes if you live in one of those counties where the SE portion is projected to get a little and the NW corner 6+ inches more, then every mile matters. Also the MA and NE folks could see some wiggles due to the trajectory of the secondary low. Other than that, slight variations in tracks of lows, strengths of highs and surface depictions I think. Normally, the crazy qpf amounts will go down a half to one inch and the stripe of snow will narrow a bit. These are pretty normal corrections and to be expected. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I understand that, that's fine. Hopefully we can all get on the same page with one solution. I try not to have biases towards one solution, but GEFS does have more agreement with regards to surface low track for sure. Of course anything can change. I'm just catching up this morning and agree w/ your thoughts about the slp placement and our area. I've come to the realization that our area will have mixing issues because of the slp being too far west. I personally liked last nights euro mainly because of the slow movement and the fact it could be a historic storm for several in the SE. I didn't look at any temp profiles but the 0z euro looked a little better for our area. We still have mixing issue and will go to rn some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow!! Since Burger is here I will give it a BOOM @45. Precip much better out ahead of the low. Great cad coming down with the finger of the cad touching NE GA and heavy rates overhead. Question is I see two precip maximas and two tiny closed contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM is now all snow for HKY by 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM is also all snow deep into Gaston County at my folks place between Cherryville and BC. This is the run we've been waiting on, boys.Actually, looks like a changeover back to some sleet at 48 but there's only one layer that is above freezing and it's 1C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 @48 ULL can now be seen pinned up in Northwestern Alabama not too far from its 6z position but as stated precip field much more expansive out ahead. Still good cad all the way down into northeast Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 precip looks great at 48, all snow north nc. about to changeover here in the next few frames im sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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