MichaelJ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is added to my previous post about the EPS mean for W-S Charlotte- 6 Raleigh- 5 Boone- 22 Asheville- 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think this NAM run is too warm/far north based on last night's Euro ensemble and this AM's RGEM. So no point really in getting too much into details. This afternoon's Euro and GFS will hopefully still be more south..... really need the gfs to make a move here in a few mins. if it hold serve then it will be a huge difference in solutions <48hrs from the start of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12 NAM is an improvement over the 6 as shown by this NAM surface soundings: 12Z 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Calc is this all snow clown or does it get diluted with ice The short answer is, "I'm not sure." It's from Tropical Tidbits site, and I don't know exactly how they parse the data. That looks like it includes ice.... It may very well do so, especially after comparing to the maps that you posted with snow and freezing rain separately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 New Blog Update From Brad P. : https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1010400315699091 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think this NAM run is too warm/far north based on last night's Euro ensemble and this AM's RGEM. So no point really in getting too much into details. This afternoon's Euro and GFS will hopefully still be more south..... We really need that 500 mb low to dig as far south as possible, then hope it takes an eastern route here in Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 i haven't been paying a lot of attention to this storm after it appeared n ga was in the screw zone. however, it has my attention now - as cold as it has been if we can get some good ne winds to keep the temps down there could be some decent icing here. we havent had any big cad events for a while and this one is looking like we may get one. this looks like the type of storm that is great for the classic ne ga cad areas This is definitely a storm you should be paying attention to. The first person i thought of that would get slammed was you lol. Dude, you and I both know how it never fails, when the CAD is modeled like it currently is, the models never handle the low level temps. This has trouble written all over it if the trend continues. I will go out on a limb and say that Athens, Winder, Dacula, Lawrenceville would all be in on the act. Also, any more movement south and I would almost guarantee it. Verbatim, no, but the CAD always out performs the modeling of that signature. The thing is, if we had some low dewpoints out ahead of this system..there would be little doubt this would be a monster ice storm for many in ga. However, this is going to be as a result of cold air advection right before and as the storm is happening..which is why i follow closer to the model output instead subtracting several degrees off like i would if we could get some evaporational cooling to start. I think one could subtract one or two degrees at the most off of current projections but that's about it. Currently as projected on the nam, elevations as mentioned earlier would be in the game but places like gainesville proper are likely to be right at 32.5 or 33. That said, the trend is ever so slightly colder/stronger with the cad so much more at all and freezing temps will make it into the lower elevations of these areas like gainesville proper. I agree Lookout... Im not sure that the cad sig will not shift a little to the southeast to catch more the anderson/hartwell/ to gainesville. This reasoning is all based off history here. We'll need to see the wedge strengthen some more. I was thinking earlier that i85 roughly would be the dividing line for any significant icing possibilities..however the rgem is coming in colder..implying freezing temps from anderson to greenwood to even columbia by 48 hours. It certainly would not take much at all for a much more widespread ice storm if the rgem is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Probably based on the Nam, you get the ice idea Check out @Wx1sCLT's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Wx1sCLT/status/689829940636692481?s=09 I have light snow showers already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 6m6 minutes ago 12z NAM RDU bufkit shows 1.5 inches total QPF falling as frozen/freezing before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 12z nam says CAE is sitting around 34 with thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I wouldn't think so either, but a little disconcerting that the usually CAD-savvy NAM is cutting it so close. Man, really rooting for y'all down here -- love that you are in a "friendlier" spot for winter weather. The orientation of the 32 degree isotherm looks off the way it actually noses further south off to the east rather than right up against the eastern slopes. I'm conflicted though because that much frz rain would make my shifts at KCLT an absolute nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 12z nam says CAE is sitting around 34 with thunder rgem says hello silly woman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Crazy, 1.13" if fzr for CLT? if that verified. then have any snow fall on top of that would paralyze the metro. Not good for the Panther's game on Sunday if true. with wind advisory level winds to boot on backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is that the first time a model has shown a sub 1000 mb surface low pre-transfer? Yikes! rgem says hello silly woman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I can already declare GFS will dig more. Now we wait for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thanks Lookout. CAD makes more sense in that model run than the NAM did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 RGEM drives the snow line damn near Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yea 5h is a tick better @21. Will see if it makes dividends on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 rgem says hello silly woman 999....wow Is that the first time a model has shown a sub 1000 mb surface low pre-transfer? Yikes! I don't know that answer, but it's the first I've noticed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 gfs pretty similar at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Also, if we bottom out at 25 as opposed to 30, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 gfs pretty similar at 30. If you notice at 30 tho, that spoke of energy that was in northern Missouri is now progged to be on the border of Oklahoma. That has allowed it to dig down further into Texas hopefully to set up a low further south than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If you notice at 30 tho, that spoke of energy that was in northern Missouri is now progged to be on the border of Oklahoma. That has allowed it to dig down further into Texas hopefully to set up a low further south than 6z 39 the slp placement looks nearly identical to 06z. lets see where the slp reforms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't hold out much hope for the GFS. It can be a stubborn model and live in denial at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't hold out much hope for the GFS. It can be a stubborn model and live in denial at times. I think it's irrelevant at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 gfs does show a little more initial precip as snow in much of nc like the 12z nam did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 gfs does show a little more initial precip as snow in much of nc like the 12z nam did. Agreed. @45 there is much more precip out ahead of the ULL just as depicted by the nam, except GFS to me looks much colder with the 850s. Big run coming for NC once again it looks like. ULL about identical @45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS is not that great- the same or even a tad north of the 6Z run....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 @57 trying hard to transfer at the sc/ga coast near sav? will have to see here where it transfers to. EDIT: looks a tick east of 06z off myrtle colder for wnc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 @51 GFS is MUCH colder with 850's. Goes back to yesterday that the models underestimate the cad. Big storm incoming Edit: I was actually viewing 2m temps but upstairs it is very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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