packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How does a stronger high, more wedging, and a colder solution lead to a more northern track, more rain and less snow? That's at the surface. The upper energy was over amped and pulled the initial low to the north. We have seen that with the nam many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How does a stronger high, more wedging, and a colder solution lead to a more northern track, more rain and less snow? That was my point, something not right with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM absolutely murders raleigh with ZR. Snow on the backside. I don't think people get how nasty this would be if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Firehose! Next image.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow, right after I dissed the SREF the NAM comes out and goes from 20" in AVL to 5". This is after I already paid a non refundable deposit on a hotel room..... :axe: I hope this is just the NAM being the NAM. but I have a sinking feeling in my gut..... Don't worry yet. NAM hasn't done well around here in a long time, especially in winter. My personal blend is GEFS and EPS. Just saw a talk last week at AMS saying EPS was superior inside 48 hours. We got NAM'd. Given the look and feel of GEFS I would be stunned if it changed much over its earlier runs from today. NAM just all over the place each run. 18Z no exception to that with its ridiculous QPF. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Supposedly GSP goes over to snow between 48-51. FWIW: Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 As a fellow meteorologist I definitely respect your opinion. However I do not understand how you are bittercasting. You chose the worst model for winter precip for Raleigh and then hug it. What is the meteorological explanation for the change? Raleigh? I am talking about Asheville, not Raleigh The Euro ensembles and the GFS ensembles also had well over 10" for AVL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If anyone were to listen to one thing I post on here remember it is the nam and it has a KNOWN BIAS for over amplifying as well as sometimes overdoing the qpf production. I don't buy it for a second unless models start to trend. That was a pretty sizeable jump. Could the balloons and special soundings etc helped a bit maybe but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Agree. The whole I-85 corridor would get it -- 850s not even close to freezing until the very end -- 1.5 inches of QPF into upper 20s air with +5 850s for about 12 hours? UGLY. EDIT: Having said that, I don't buy this run. Having said THAT, SOMEBODY is going to be in a strip of 1+ inch FZRA. The NAM absolutely murders raleigh with ZR. Snow on the backside. I don't think people get how nasty this would be if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Agree. The whole I-85 corridor would get it -- 850s not even close to freezing until the very end -- 1.5 inches of QPF into upper 20s air with +5 850s for about 12 hours? UGLY. Glad I'm 30 miles north. It skirts being all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Liking the look of the GEFS as well. Its track seems to make overall sense with the evolution of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Check out @WxSouth's Tweet: https://twitter.com/WxSouth/status/690002393673699328?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Eric Thomas had a great statement (during the live hangout) about the rates during this event when one is under Freezing rain. Since the rates are progged to be heavy the freezing rain should not have time to accumulate on power lines like a slow drizzle that occurs over a long time period. Agree. The whole I-85 corridor would get it -- 850s not even close to freezing until the very end -- 1.5 inches of QPF into upper 20s air with +5 850s for about 12 hours? UGLY.EDIT: Having said that, I don't buy this run.Having said THAT, SOMEBODY is going to be in a strip of 1+ inch FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Don't wishcast guys, it could be right lol. That said, looking at the entire model, there's probably some feedback issues with the convective precip in the deep south. The SLP on models tend to following the highest concentrations of convection. At hour 30, there is a large MCS banding area over TN. The SLP jumps towards that area at hour 36. This can potentially throw off the entire run. The NAM has a history of overdoing these MCS. This in turn shifts the entire deformation banding area further north. This is the initial surge of moisture. The SLP off the coastline is pretty much identical to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Don't wishcast guys, it could be right lol. That said, looking at the entire model, there's probably some feedback issues with the convective precip in the deep south. The SLP on models tend to following the highest concentrations of convection. At hour 30, there is a large MCS banding area over TN. The SLP jumps towards that area at hour 36. This can potentially throw off the entire run. The NAM has a history of overdoing these MCS. This in turn shifts the entire deformation banding area further north. This is the initial surge of moisture. The SLP off the coastline is pretty much identical to 18z. Now there's your Pro analysis ladies and gentlemen. Thanks Hickory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That's right, the exception being super cold air. When I was at Sewanee in 1988, we had a driving freezing rain storm and ... 19 DEGREES! That stuff stuck to everything and it was pouring! Don't think that will be an issue, even with upper 20s during the heaviest of the precip. Eric Thomas had a great statement (during the live hangout) about the rates during this event when one is under Freezing rain. Since the rates are progged to be heavy the freezing rain should not have time to accumulate on power lines like a slow drizzle that occurs over a long time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Was talking to a Met friend, He said NAM made a big mistake early in the run. toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM...could be a long night... I'm going to bed now...hopefully the other models will hang in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Now there's your Pro analysis ladies and gentlemen. Thanks Hickory lol thx. BTW to give some perspective. Below is Jan 96 at similar point in its evolution. Notice the triple SLP areas. One reflection associated with the upper low over SE tn, one over the deep south, and one off the coastline. None of these are dominate at this point in the storms evolution. So i wouldn't get too fixated on SLP track. Concentrate more on the upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well... just for clown map fun. No clue how much would be ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm gonna go ahead and say that that NAM map right there does not match soundings in my area.. so uhm. no. not at all. way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM...could be a long night... I'm going to bed now...hopefully the other models will hang in there. The RGEM starts as snow (for you and I and a lot of the state), then goes over to a raging sleet storm. Not too different from its 18z run, IIRC. Mets on here have said it tends to overamplify things out past 24 hours, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The RGEM starts as snow, then goes over to a raging sleet storm. Not too different from its 18z run, IIRC. Mets on here have said it tends to overamplify things out past 24 hours, though. It looks exactly the same, near as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No negative comments about the model im about to say. The RAP is much further south than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Out to 21 and the L is stronger and south of the 18Z position at 15 HR. It looks exactly the same, near as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The snow maps are fine in an all snow event. For mixed precipitation events like this one (in our forum), they send the wrong message Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 At 36 hours compared to 48 hours on the 18z, RGEM's trend almost identical to 0z NAM at upper levels -- NW of 18z position by a good bit. EDIT -- and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No negative comments about the model im about to say. The RAP is much further south than the NAM. I ain't gonna give you a hard time but brother... Way too early for the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Also like the NAM -- 2m CAD is actually stronger. #zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It'll be interesting to see if we get as cold as the RGEM indicates. It normally does well in CAD events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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