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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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Do u agree with the temps forecasted

The weekly looks OK imo

the monthly is obviously overdone

 

EURO ens at 240hrs

850mb temps anoms ---north of the border falls in line with milder trends ATM

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

we know it is guesswork..still the overall look has merit

with a blend of the guidance available

 

GEFS loop for good measure

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016011218&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

not a forecast here...just showing the mashup   :nerdsmiley:

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no talk for the Feb CFS weekly progs?

cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us_5.png

Monthly

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_1.png

NCEP ENS

850mb temp anoms thru Jan 27th

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_nhsm_animation.html

The CFS is pretty much a crapshoot until the last 5-7 days of the proceeding month. I'll typical start giving it a glance around the 23rd of each month
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The next storm coming up on 1/16 looks insanely annoying. If that primary was a little weaker, it would be enough to dynamically cool from the coastal storm for heavy snow everywhere with a track like the GFS has. Well inland, especially from the Catskills north, might be able to salvage a decent snow event. 

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NWS seems to think the air will be too dry.

I'm gonna wait for 1-2 more Rgem cycles before we can get a better idea.

Nam has the same general idea as well.

Temps will be cold and only hundredths of an inch of precip could yield a fluffy coating to half inch.

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NWS seems to think the air will be too dry.

I'm gonna wait for 1-2 more Rgem cycles before we can get a better idea.

Nam has the same general idea as well.

Temps will be cold and only hundredths of an inch of precip could yield a fluffy coating to half inch.

Where did this snow suddenly come from?? at no point during this week was there talk from anyone or any model about light snow b4 the Fri storm

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NWS seems to think the air will be too dry.

I'm gonna wait for 1-2 more Rgem cycles before we can get a better idea.

Nam has the same general idea as well.

Temps will be cold and only hundredths of an inch of precip could yield a fluffy coating to half inch.

I lean toward the NWS idea. However, as the RGEM is arguably the best short-term model, I'm not completely dismissing its idea. The 18z and 0z runs will be interesting.

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Wow....the 12z GFS is much closer to the coast on this run. That's quite a change.

It'd be the miracle of all miracles, but if the first system keeps on speeding up then we could see a slight adjustment further west

Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

The further east the first storm is the better

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Wow....the 12z GFS is much closer to the coast on this run. That's quite a change.

It'd be the miracle of all miracles, but if the first system keeps on speeding up then we could see a slight adjustment further west

Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

The first system is way OTS. It's the second system.

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That's all because the initial southern S/W gets out the way just in time to allow the height field to recover for the second system. It also created move spacing.

Now we just need the other models to start to catch on to this. I do like that the GFS and the PARA-GFS haven't wavered, though. It gives you a bit of pause.

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