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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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Morris

Morris

Posted
Posted

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
743 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL
TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A SECONDARY LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...TAKING A TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WILL CONTINUE. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE
JUST SHY OF ADVY CRITERIA FOR THE MOST PART...40-45 MPH...BUT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NORTH/WEST OF NYC COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS 0 TO 5 ABOVE THIS MORNING WILL
NOT IMPROVE MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE INLAND AND JUST
OVER 10 ABOVE IN NYC METRO AND AT THE COAST.

BRISK CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO
THE LOWER 20S INVOF NYC...AND 15-20 ELSEWHERE. SUSTAINED WINDS
15-25 MPH WILL CONTINUE...WITH GUSTS 35-40 MPH THIS EVENING.
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 ABOVE IN NYC...AND WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD AND WINDS DIMINISH...WITH HIGHS 30-35. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EARLY WILL YIELD TO INCREASING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. NO SURFACE LOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...SO LOOKS LIKE JUST CLOUDS AS OPPOSED TO ANY
PRECIPITATION.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALOFT.

THEREAFTER...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A LOW AT THE SURFACE. THE LOW WILL
HEAD NORTHEAST...TOWARDS OUR AREA...WHERE THERE WILL BE A POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. THIS HIGH WILL HELP TO PROVIDE THE COLD AIR
NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL STORM FOR THE WEEKEND AND HELP TO PUSH THE
LOW MORE TOWARD THE EAST AS IT ENTERS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. NEAR THE
GULF STREAM...PROVIDING AN AREA OF BAROCLINICITY WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE STORM TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW THEN PASSES CLOSE TO OR EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY MEANDER NEAR THE BENCHMARK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. RIGHT
NOW...FORECASTING ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE. BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF
THIS STORM IS STILL NOT 100% CERTAIN...AND A SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF
THE LOW TOWARD THE COAST...WEST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WOULD
LIKELY BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES OFF THE WARM OCEAN WATERS. IT
WAS AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM DECEMBER...AND SO FAR JANUARY IS ABOVE
NORMAL WELL...WHICH MEANS WARMER THAN NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES.

SOME THINGS TO NOTE ARE THAT THERE IS UNUSUALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
FOR A STORM THAT IS 4 TO 5 DAYS OUT...BOTH IN THE MODELS
THEMSELVES...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. ALSO...THE NAO AND THE
AO ARE CURRENTLY NEGATIVE...AND ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE ARE FORECAST
TO TREND TOWARDS NEUTRAL...THEY SHOULD STILL BE NEGATIVE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WHICH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND A COLD
SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD IN THE GEFS AND THE
NAEFS...THOUGH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SHOWS LITTLE SPREAD. ALSO...THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INDUCING THE LOW OVER THE
GULF COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA IS
STILL OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHERE THERE IS A LACK OF
OBSERVATIONS THAT WOULD BE INGESTED INTO THE MODELS. THIS DOES
PLAY A ROLE IN THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE BETTER
SAMPLED ONCE IT MAKES ITS WAY INLAND ON TUESDAY. MINOR CHANGES IN
WHERE THIS FEATURE IS ON TUESDAY COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE FORECAST FOR OUR AREA.

ITS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES
OR MORE. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL...THE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXIST FOR HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. THERE IS A FULL MOON
COMING UP ON JAN 23.

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Morris

Morris

Posted
Posted

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
416 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST STATES GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY, EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST, EVENTUALLY
PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY IS GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...CHILLY AND BREEZY.
HIGHS ARE PROBABLY ONLY GOING TO BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
(HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT EVEN GET OUT OF THE
TEENS). AND WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, IT WILL FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

AS FOR THE WINDS, SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE 45 MPH WINDS AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE MIXING WILL
BE THAT EFFICIENT, AND MODELS MAY BE OVERESTIMATING THE DEPTH OF THE
MIXED LAYER. THUS, DO NOT EXPECT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAND,
THOUGH WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER OUR REGION
LATER TODAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES, PRIMARILY OVER THE
POCONOS. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE AIR MASS IS (DEW POINTS
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS), DO NOT EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE
SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO INCH CLOSER TO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DECREASE AND WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASE. HOWEVER, WITH THE COLD AIR MASS STILL
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION, IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY EVENING**

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FEW CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER AS IT
CROSSES OUR REGION. STILL, THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, SO KEPT A MENTION OF 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, WITH SNOW AMOUNTS STAYING BELOW
ONE INCH.

INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, SOME WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR REGION, AND WE EXPECT A DRY AND QUIET NIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES IN ADVANCE OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME POSES A VERY IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM
FOR OUR REGION, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING/TRACK, THERMAL FIELDS, AND STRENGTH OF A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND EMERGES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THEN TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UP
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT, WE ARE STILL ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY THAT WILL FORM THIS SYSTEM REACHING THE WEST COAST AND
GETTING SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. THUS IN UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS, HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE MORE AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE
INTENSITY, TRACK, AND THERMAL FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE AS IT TRACKS UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WHAT CAN BE SAID AT THIS TIME IS THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM,
BOTH SNOW AND RAIN, ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AS OF NOW WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE,
THE SNOW/RAIN LINE LOOKS TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ AREA TOWARD THE DELAWARE VALLEY/I-95
CORRIDOR VICINITY FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME
SATURDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY RETREATING BACK SOUTH AND EAST TO THE
COAST TOWARD LATE-DAY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH REGARDS TO
WINDS, NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS IN THE RANGE OF 25 TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS TIME ALONG THE COAST. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO POSE THE THREAT OF TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
COAST, AND FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TIDES/CSTL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

BY SUNDAY, STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM OUR REGION,
TRACKING NORTHEAST TO WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RUN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR THE REGION AND SOME LOWER 40S FOR
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER LOOKS
TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AT THIS TIME AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.

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