pasnownut Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 And this stuff is free. I've learned more in 1 year here than 10 years in other forums. Thanks folks. x2. As a lurker from PA forum...you guys really are a good bunch. Not much rubbish to sift through, and great offerings from many. Happy New Year from your PA brethren.. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 how about that D7 euro's TS east of Miami ... heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Cockiness in young professionals is fairly common. I remember how smart I thought I was 40 years ago and how stupid I feel time after time today in the workplace. Humility makes you better at what you do and at least entertaining what can go wrong is what anyone in meteorology should do. Euro getting closer Monday. All we need is a scooter meltdown and it could be off to the races. Perhaps I'll enjoy a few flakes as I"ll be in Boston Monday while the Pit basks beneath cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Late bloomer at the End of the 12z Euro run, Miller B'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Cockiness in young professionals is fairly common. I remember how smart I thought I was 40 years ago and how stupid I feel time after time today in the workplace. Humility makes you better at what you do and at least entertaining what can go wrong is what anyone in meteorology should do. Euro getting closer Monday. All we need is a scooter meltdown and it could be off to the races. If we can put down an inch or two of Currier and Ives inverted trough snow on Monday...then we'll be primed for a Scooter tirade on how he can't bring his son sledding on it...then we should be good for a blizzard in < 7 days. Enjoy the flurries on Monday as I tan in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 GEFS looked terrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 GEFS looked terrific. still appears we are in limbo as we wait for the operational runs to avail of a good pattern and stop tussling over wave spacing issues... the d8/9 event still on the table in my mind ( i brought this up earlier in the thread) but notice the euro cuts it to the gl first before limping a m-b solution along the ne coast. it's all gonna change - duh. but there's something there ... and by and large, the operational version across the board really don't do the ensemble means any services here - seems they are a little at odds and the interference et al is probably related to that - if that weren't enough... there's a new 'phoon in the central trop pac ...it'll be interesting to see where that ends up and if it can get involved with the phase 7 mjo constructive interference with the pna... you gotta wonder how favorable things have to look before the oper. runs give up. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Enjoy the flurries on Monday as I tan in the Caribbean. Looks like you miss a nice little snow event Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Could be some good times around the 10th on, GEFS has a nice look to it with a couple other chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 still appears we are in limbo as we wait for the operational runs to avail of a good pattern and stop tussling over wave spacing issues... the d8/9 event still on the table in my mind ( i brought this up earlier in the thread) but notice the euro cuts it to the gl first before limping a m-b solution along the ne coast. it's all gonna change - duh. but there's something there ... and by and large, the operational version across the board really don't do the ensemble means any services here - seems they are a little at odds and the interference et al is probably related to that - if that weren't enough... there's a new 'phoon in the central trop pac ...it'll be interesting to see where that ends up and if it can get involved with the phase 7 mjo constructive interference with the pna... you gotta wonder how favorable things have to look before the oper. runs give up. haha Will brought up the example of all that energy in the split flow....recipe for model mayhem. We sort of lack good cold, but I always have my eyes open with a flow like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Looks like you miss a nice little snow event Monday. I wouldn't miss anything under 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Could be some good times around the 10th on, GEFS has a nice look to it with a couple other chances Sign me up for that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Sign me up for that look. Yeah, We don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yeah, We don't toss Maybe we can smoke some cirrus while the Mid Atl and SNE can get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Maybe we can smoke some cirrus while the Mid Atl and SNE can get crushed. Ha,wouldn't be the first or last time if it did happen, But I would take my chances Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 If we can get the polar vortex over the Hudson Bay, then I would be liking our chances, but that setup on the EURO day 7-10 is suppressed. I think we can get 6"+ out of this Monday event. Delta Ts reach 28-30C, that is un heard of. 8.5-9.5C SSTs and 850mb temps of -20C, 925mb temps of -14C, 700mb temps of -22 to -24C and 500mb temps of -34C, very cold solid air mass in place, equals unstable central. Can't wait to get underneath those bands. hopefully it is one singular band that hits my house dead on, and northerly winds favor my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I think everyone does to some level or another...my nature wasn't to get too complacent with my ability, but there were definitely times I thought I knew more than I did. I think many feel that way when you look back in hindsight. The best way to look at busts is that they are learning tools. Some may try and wipe them from their memory, but I personally think they are good to analyze and learn from however painful it may be to relive your mistakes. Personal business experience with this concept. Learned from a failure a few years ago instead of being defensive and the business few literally four fold. You've always seemed like even guy tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Last January was impressive in that the models barely hinted at anything until less than 3 days out. At 06Z on Saturday it looked like a miss; by 12Z it was a hit. We only had a thread going here on Saturday morning for a Monday night storm (although the model thread had been hinting at it for a while). It was fun pulling up GFS maps on my iPhone after a ski race, and the running up Mount Madison (25º and calm) with the little storm the weekend before shrouding Mount Washington to the south while to the north Quebec was clear for 100s of miles. I'll remember that moment both for that, and for the mauling that came two days later. Once I had awakened and saw the first hit on the 00z EURO, I posted on FB that we would see a blizzard immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Once I had awakened and saw the first hit on the 00z EURO, I posted on FB that we would see a blizzard immediately. James knew first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 James knew first My post wasn't about who was first, it was about knowing when I saw the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I haven't seen a nao look like that on guidance in a long time. Great discussion. Yea, At mohegun sun with the wife and still browsing...#addict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Holy moses on the EPS, now thats epicosity being cooked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Geezus what a flip from Dec. The EPS keeps getting colder each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Geezus what a flip from Jan. The EPS keeps getting colder each run. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1m1 minute agoPennsylvania, USA I got news for you people, the Collapse of the jet into the US Jan 10-20 is real, and spectacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 What a weenie run of the Euro ensembles. There's a pretty good pattern setting up for about Jan 9th through the end of the run for a storm system...the ensemble mean is strong for Jan 9-10, but I could also see the period after that being a bit more favorable with better cold established and a more coherent ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Thank goodness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 What a weenie run of the Euro ensembles. There's a pretty good pattern setting up for about Jan 9th through the end of the run for a storm system...the ensemble mean is strong for Jan 9-10, but I could also see the period after that being a bit more favorable with better cold established and a more coherent ridge out west. Anthony HM agreesAnthony Masiello (@antmasiello) tweeted at 4:26 PM on Thu, Dec 31, 2015: The EPS are much warmer at 10mb over N. AMER than GEFS. That EPO block that breaks off could lead to legit phasing in US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Sick run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 PV in SE Canada is going to supply plenty of good airmasses if that pans out. Shouldn't be a shortage of shortwaves either with the PAC Nino jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Today feels like New Year's Eve 57/58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.