snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Finish out the year in style! Went basically 4 months with 2" of rain total, and still gonna finish at around 60"+ You know it'll verify if it's rain predicted. Now when the euro shows 8" of snow later this winter that won't happen lol. There's always the snow triangle especially over burger's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 What's your location, snowlover91? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 What's your location, snowlover91? I originally am from the Pitt county area but now live up in Knightdale, just east of Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Thanks. You could add it to your avatar/signature/etc. Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Delta just posted a map with a bunch of check marks and arrows. That's good, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Delta just posted a map with a bunch of check marks and arrows. That's good, right? He's losing it, lol. I do like the modeling recently trying to get things more favorable for us early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 Delta just posted a map with a bunch of check marks and arrows. That's good, right?He's channeling his inner Cold_Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Models finally seeing the pattern change that has been hinted at happening in early Jan for a few weeks now, the evolution of the change pretty much fits the SOP for changes from strong established patterns.......its almost never really gets picked up on widely in the models until 7-10 days out.....it looks like Jan 1 on should seasonal for this time of year and it looks like that could evolve even further into a true cold eastern US setup locking in for a while....I for one get tired of the cold after 4-6 weeks of it so a cold month and a half from mid Jan to Mar 1 is fine with me, then we need a warmer stormy pattern for spring severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 snowlover91 and his first week of JAN pattern change FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Models finally seeing the pattern change that has been hinted at happening in early Jan for a few weeks now, the evolution of the change pretty much fits the SOP for changes from strong established patterns.......its almost never really gets picked up on widely in the models until 7-10 days out.....it looks like Jan 1 on should seasonal for this time of year and it looks like that could evolve even further into a true cold eastern US setup locking in for a while....I for one get tired of the cold after 4-6 weeks of it so a cold month and a half from mid Jan to Mar 1 is fine with me, then we need a warmer stormy pattern for spring severe season. This is why its a bad idea to punt winter so early like some were doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 They're getting all the rain and storms now that I am not there. Lol sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 This is why its a bad idea to punt winter so early like some were doing.I guess I like to win like the panthers, 45 yard field goal with 5 seconds left! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 This is why its a bad idea to punt winter so early like some were doing. Especially when many were doing it before winter even began from a calendar perspective. What baffles me most was that a warm December was forecast, not to the degree we have seen but it was expected to be quite warm. Yet when this verified people began to give up on winter lol. Anyways I think for January we see a slightly below average month, nothing too extreme but an average of 2-4C below average looks likely to me. The active STJ will produce frequent storms rolling through and the new pattern will have cold air close by. The key, as always, will be getting the moisture and cold to meet at the right time. Will that happen in January? I think so, I'm eyeing the 10-15th time range for a potential system. Will we actually see any? Who knows lol it's all part of the fun. I also see late January transitioning to a much colder pattern with February being quite frigid and multiple chances for snow storms and CAD events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Especially when many were doing it before winter even began from a calendar perspective. What baffles me most was that a warm December was forecast, not to the degree we have seen but it was expected to be quite warm. Yet when this verified people began to give up on winter lol. Anyways I think for January we see a slightly below average month, nothing too extreme but an average of 2-4C below average looks likely to me. The active STJ will produce frequent storms rolling through and the new pattern will have cold air close by. The key, as always, will be getting the moisture and cold to meet at the right time. Will that happen in January? I think so, I'm eyeing the 10-15th time range for a potential system. Will we actually see any? Who knows lol it's all part of the fun. I also see late January transitioning to a much colder pattern with February being quite frigid and multiple chances for snow storms and CAD events. That's what I tried to convey last night about mid-late January being the real pattern flip/best chances. It just got taken wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 That's what I tried to convey last night about mid-late January being the real pattern flip/best chances. It just got taken wrong. What we see for early January would definitely classify as a pattern flip. It may not be the perfect pattern with great indices but it is one which will at least have threats for snow. I think our best chance will be late January and through most of February as that's when analogs suggest the coldest air and best pattern. I do think we have potential really any time in January for a storm as well, in stark contrast to the warm December pattern of 70-80F highs. I'll take upper 40s for January with chances for something working out instead of the terrible torch we've been in. Keep an eye on the January 10-15th range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 What we see for early January would definitely classify as a pattern flip. It may not be the perfect pattern with great indices but it is one which will at least have threats for snow. I think our best chance will be late January and through most of February as that's when analogs suggest the coldest air and best pattern. I do think we have potential really any time in January for a storm as well, in stark contrast to the warm December pattern of 70-80F highs. I'll take upper 40s for January with chances for something working out instead of the terrible torch we've been in. Keep an eye on the January 10-15th range. Might take a bit longer for us down this way in Columbia, SC. I am a bit worried on more of an ice storm threat down this way for a good portion of the potential threats. History really likes very late January through Feb. for us down here. It is good to see recent modeling even through today now getting us out of this unseasonably warm spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 HAPPY EASTER!!!Area forecast discussionNational Weather Service Raleigh NC621 am EST Tuesday Dec 22 2015The timing of potential cold frontal surges into NC...if theyoccur...are favored late Friday night-Sat...and again Sun night-Monday...with otherwise unseasonably mild-warm and humid conditions indeep southerly flow around the sub-tropical ridge. The primarybranch of the northern stream will be blocked to the northwest by the sub-tropical ridging...so forcing for ascent and associatedprecipitation chances will be small (generally at or below 30 percent) andinstead driven by lower amplitude southern stream perturbations andassociated surges of low level Theta-E advection and brief erosionof a capping inversion...with said capping more likely to beovercome by diurnal heating in an airmass more characteristicof April-may than late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 This is why its a bad idea to punt winter so early like some were doing. Agree. It is also why it is bad idea to count on a pattern change based on long range models. There are plenty of bad ideas to go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 Agree. It is also why it is bad idea to count on a pattern change based on long range models. There are plenty of bad ideas to go around. I'm still gonna punt like the Clemson punter! Today I might punt like I should and the coach tells me! Tomorrow , I might just fake, then tuck and run for 8 yds , when it was like 4th and 25! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 There has been a Lookout sighting in the pattern thread. Hope that you are doing well Lookout and Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Yay! More 300+ hr maps in the discussion thread Pacific fire hose ftw! In other news...My pups are not happy with the facilities outside thanks to the flooded yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 not seeing it here, but elsewhere it seems as if many DESIRE a huge tornado outbreak.....having been in the Palm Sunday 1994 outbreak i dont ever desire that anyone anywhere face those horrific storms....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 21 22 Sometimes I hate my dirty mind. This made me laugh. I should be taken out and whipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Yay! More 300+ hr maps in the discussion thread Pacific fire hose ftw! In other news...My pups are not happy with the facilities outside thanks to the flooded yard Oh jesus, I can't wait to bump troll some folks around mid Jan..... It's going to be a slaughter on par with randy's election night bump troll massacre. My spank bank is filling up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Weather Underground is predicting a high temperature of 63 for Montreal on Christmas Eve. Their average high on Christmas Eve is 23, so that would be a solid 40 degrees warmer than average! So at least we can be thankful we won't be 40 degrees above normal Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 not seeing it here, but elsewhere it seems as if many DESIRE a huge tornado outbreak.....having been in the Palm Sunday 1994 outbreak i dont ever desire that anyone anywhere face those horrific storms....... I saw that too. I hope nothing comes of it. People are just hugely bored, and boredom can sometimes bring out some... bad behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I wonder if the heat index here can make it up to 100 on Christmas day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Oh jesus, I can't wait to bump troll some folks around mid Jan..... It's going to be a slaughter on par with randy's election night bump troll massacre. My spank bank is filling up fast. Do you expect January to turn out like December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I saw that too. I hope nothing comes of it. People are just hugely bored, and boredom can sometimes bring out some... bad behavior. Clearly said people have no kids. Why on earth would you want to deal with this crappy weather on Christmas when all it would do is prevent kids from actually enjoying Christmas day. Some people need to get a life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Check it out: https://www.telluride.com/webcam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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