Jonathan Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Swing and a miss on the post New Years storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 Hasn't been properly sampled yet! I'm staying up for the Euro, if 0z GFS doesn't bring the goods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 FWIW the Euro early on had this storm tracking further south like the GFS currently shows while the GFS had a cutter up through the Great Lakes. The GFS has dramatically shifted in the past day towards the Euro solution. Yesterday's 18z run of the GFS yesterday had the cutter and then 00z shifted to the further south solution. Euro isn't quite as impressive as it was early on with the storm but it's good to see the two coming into better agreement. If we could get a further south track and a stronger high to build in over SE Canada. Snowpack would also help but that will be mostly absent in these locations before the storm. Just not much to help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 One day there will be something in the discussion thread besides 300+hr "pattern change" maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 One day there will be something in the discussion thread besides 300+hr "pattern change" maps We are under 300 hours now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 We are under 300 hours now The 540 line is still in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 The 540 line is still in Canada It'll make it's own cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The 540 line is still in Canada The 588 line is down in Mexico instead of Wilmington, NC also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Another week of 70's in the forecast and the departures at CAE are at +8.6 as of today.....ugly...just ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 Tonight's GFS and Euro runs, will be the most important runs of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Tonight's GFS and Euro runs, will be the most important runs of the year! Wrong thread, possibly? This looks like it would work in the catchphrase one better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Tonight's GFS and Euro runs, will be the most important runs of the year! GFS doesn't look good. Strong HP but low depends faster and is further west, would be too warm here. Still a good ways out though so a lot of changes can and probably will happen. The storm track through the OV region seems most likely without anything to keep it suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Lake cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Lake cutter That's right where we want it at this stage. No one wants to be in the bullseye 7+ days out. I'd be wary if I was living in Wisconsin or Minnesota. Nah, Winnipeg is going to get demolished. NW trend!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 2 storms Jan 1-5th on the 0z gfs fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Guess many won't realize that cold and snowy isnt happening until mid-late jan at the earliest. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Guess many won't realize that cold and snowy isnt happening until mid-late jan at the earliest. Ugh. What makes you say this? Snow isn't guaranteed even in a favorable pattern with good indices and cold. It can and has been cold/dry many times. What I see on the models is a pattern change the first few days of January with average to below average temps across the Southeast. With the active STJ all you need is a well timed Gulf low and things can get interesting. The colder air/pattern is coming in early January and I think many will be happy with the way January and February turn out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 What makes you say this? Snow isn't guaranteed even in a favorable pattern with good indices and cold. It can and has been cold/dry many times. What I see on the models is a pattern change the first few days of January with average to below average temps across the Southeast. With the active STJ all you need is a well timed Gulf low and things can get interesting. The colder air/pattern is coming in early January and I think many will be happy with the way January and February turn out I hope you are right and it sticks around long enough to give us chances. Just feels odd having a chance of thunderstorms and severe for some on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 First it's early Jan, then its mid-Jan, now it's Early Feb. Wash rinse repeat every winter disaster year. Right now Bermuda high dominates, Oscillation's are not in our favor. Nino is supercharging the jet making it impossible for the cold air to budge. Might be a few weeks, might be a month, might not even happen this winter. It's anyone's guess at this point, even for Met's like myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 A bunch of dam nutjobs on here! Looking and looking for a pattern change, one is possibly on the way, even if it's just to normal. Now it's happening and " it won't last" " warmth will be back right after"! Let us enjoy the dam seasonal temps before looking for the next torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Winter solstice is tomorrow . Still not worried. We have plenty of time yall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Weatherbell Subscribers: I have noticed Joe has recently been using the tropical tidbits maps rather than Weatherbell Ryan Maue maps in his daily video blogs. Any ideas why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Weatherbell Subscribers: I have noticed Joe has recently been using the tropical tidbits maps rather than Weatherbell Ryan Maue maps in his daily video blogs. Any ideas why? I would guess bc he likes them. It is only certain maps and JB will use what he thinks is the best IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 JB is the pope of weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This is nuts, another panhandle winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 First it's early Jan, then its mid-Jan, now it's Early Feb. Wash rinse repeat every winter disaster year. Right now Bermuda high dominates, Oscillation's are not in our favor. Nino is supercharging the jet making it impossible for the cold air to budge. Might be a few weeks, might be a month, might not even happen this winter. It's anyone's guess at this point, even for Met's like myself. I've been saying for awhile that it would be early January and it looks like that will play out. Models like the Euro Ensembles and GEFS both show a change to a ridge out west with a trough over the central and eastern US. This will certainly drop our temps down to at least seasonal and likely below normal as we near January 5-7th. By January 10th I fully expect us to be in a favorable pattern for sustained cold and snow. Here are the encouraging signs I see in favor of this. 1. UK seasonal, CANSIPS and CFS to some degree (keeps changing between warm or cool January) indicate a trough in the east. 2. Analogs for strong El Niño years support this pattern for January with the coldest of the season in February. Even then analogs suggest 3-5C below normal across the Southeast. 3. Long range GEFS and Euro Ensembles point to an average or below average temp anomaly starting January 1-2nd. They've been consistent on this change occurring. GFS OP model also continues to indicate this. 4. There are signs the PV is weakening which will help with allowing cold air to move away from it more. 5. El Niño has peaked and is on a weakening trend. Some indications are towards a west based El Niño which would certainly favor snow as well. 6. We still have a nice +PDO in the pacific which is a big key. 7. Long range modeling is hinting at the GOA low setting up south of AK which is a favored pattern in El Niño and what we need to see for a sustained PNA ridge. 8. Models have hinted at the ever so elusive -NAO forming over Greenland. This I would take with caution but is certainly possible. 9. Last but not least we see indications of blocking setting up from Scandinavia and attempts at the PNA ridging to go well north into Canada. This strong ridging would promote cooler/cold air into the Eastern US. As snow cover spreads across eastern Canada finally and the Northeast this will help as well. Certainly there are things that can go wrong. The CFS recently has showed a warm January and the Euro weeklies most recent run wasn't very good. However there are a lot of other factors in favor and pointing to a change to a colder pattern here in the East and I remain optimistic about the early January pattern change taking place and lasting through late February. We will see brief shots of warmer weather as the pattern temporarily relaxes (similar to how we see shots of cold air briefly in this warm pattern) but they will be transient. The key is still timing a system with the right track when there is enough cold in place. No matter how favorable the pattern is here in the SE we just have to wait. We are finally taking the first step towards seeing snow with a pattern that will be more supportive and condusive for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 2 storms Jan 1-5th on the 0z gfs fwiwWarm rain sucks!Two storms for Denver! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 We should break the All time record high for the month of December here, and probably the state record for the month of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Euro showing up to 8" of rain just west of GSP between now and Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 Euro showing up to 8" of rain just west of GSP between now and Christmas.Finish out the year in style! Went basically 4 months with 2" of rain total, and still gonna finish at around 60"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.