nw baltimore wx Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 DCA: 8.6" IAD: 15.3" BWI: 11.2" RIC: 3.6" Tiebreaker: 3.47" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 DCA - 5 inches IAD - 12 inches BWI - 7.5 inches RIC - 1.75 inches Tiebreaker - 6 inches I rounded your RIC call up to 1.8". Also keep in mind, like I told SLPressure, the tiebreaker is total liquid precip (rain + liquid equivalent of total frozen precip), not just snow. Your call is fine as liquid precip but I'm just double checking cause it seemed like it could've been a snow total. Looking through the spreadsheet, I can say in many instances the tiebreaker could be very important! 43 entries so far... wow! Keep 'em coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 DCA: 20.2"IAD: 36.5"BWI: 31.3"RIC: 11.0" MBY: 33.7"Tiebreaker: 3.91" (liquid) Banking on one big Nino storm to up the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 DCA: 18.6" IAD: 25.3" BWI: 19.2" RIC: 5.4" Tiebreaker: 2.11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 DCA: 4.2" IAD: 7.4" BWI: 6.1" RIC: 3.0" Tiebreaker: 3.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Ugh, Ian with the low numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Ugh, Ian with the low numbers Great short- to medium-range forecaster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 28, 2015 Author Share Posted November 28, 2015 Ugh, Ian with the low numbers I'm waiting for someone to go all in and just flat out call for a "T" or 0 at DCA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Great short- to medium-range forecaster... I proclaim no skill outside a month and even a month is pushing it. Though I know which forecasters to ensembleize plus I can throw in a few thoughts to narrow in. But yeah major bustworthy forecast.. may have to edit before 30th. This year's a **** storm waiting to happen though. All my eggs are in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 DCA: trace All other airports: climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 DCA: 7.7" IAD: 13" BWI: 11.5" RIC: 5.7" Tiebreaker: 4.80" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 Just a reminder that tonight is the deadline for entries and edits. We have 47 entries so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA: 1.7" IAD: 6.1: BWI: 4.5" RIC: 1.5" Tiebreaker: 2.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA: trace All other airports: climo Legit call DCA: 7.8" IAD: 12.1" BWI: 10.4" RIC: 4.2" TB: 2.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA: 1.7" IAD: 6.1: BWI: 4.5" RIC: 1.5" Tiebreaker: 2.30" Legit call DCA: 7.8" IAD: 12.1" BWI: 10.4" RIC: 4.2" TB: 2.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA: 17.1" IAD: 24.5" BWI: 22.2" RIC: 18.0" Tiebreaker:2.6" March will be the month with the most snow at all airports :/ Approximate (and silly) breakdown of snow at DCA by Month DEC: 0.1" JAN: 2.2" FEB: 3.4" MAR: 11.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 This should be an interesting contest. The bust potential in any direction is high. I took a middle of the road conservative guess but really don't have any confidence in it one way or the other. Can't wait for the first legit tracking exercise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 This should be an interesting contest. The bust potential in any direction is high. I took a middle of the road conservative guess but really don't have any confidence in it one way or the other. Can't wait for the first legit tracking exercise. Its a total WAG on my part. i know back end winter is favored and Dec is a goner for prolonged cold so I'm just being pessimistic. My fear isn't so much a lack of precip but lack of cold air to take advantage of that precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 All kinds of bust potential in here. This'll be a heck of a contest to watch. I would have gone higher in my totals but I had to check my weenie/optimism bias at the door. my gut feeling is at or below climo -- of course for the contest i went above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 I have no idea what is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA: 26.1 IAD:30.1 BWI:27.1 RIC:2.0 Tiebreaker:2.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA: 26.1 IAD:30.1 BWI:27.1 RIC:2.0 Tiebreaker:2.1 now watch Richmond smoke all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 I have no confidence in my forecast either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 now watch Richmond smoke all of us. Doubtful anyone smokes you. But while it's unlikely RIC beats out DCA in any year, it's most probable during a strong El Nino, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA: 24.7 IAD: 34.3 BWI: 31.4 RIC: 14.3 Tiebreaker: 4.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Dca. 9.8 iAd:13.6 Bwi. 11.9 Ric. 5.2 Tb. 2.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA: 4.8" IAD: 11.7" BWI: 9.5" RIC: 2.2" TB: 3.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Doubtful anyone smokes you. But while it's unlikely RIC beats out DCA in any year, it's most probable during a strong El Nino, IMO. RIC beat DCA in the following winters: 2012-2013 (8.6 vs 3.1) 2011-2012 (4.5 vs 2.0) 2010-2011 (10.8 vs 10.1) 2001-2002 (8.7 vs 3.2) 1997-1998 (1.2 vs 0.1) 1988-1989 (15.4 vs 5.7) 1982-1983 (29.4 vs 27.6) 1979-1980 (38.6 vs 20.1) 1976-1977 (13.8 vs 11.1) 1972-1973 (6.7 vs 0.1) 1970-1971 (15.2 vs 11.7) 1968-1969 (15.9 vs 9.1) 1965-1966 (39.2 vs 38.4) 1964-1965 (20.4 vs 17.1) 1961-1962 (38.9 vs 15.0) 1959-1960 (32.3 vs 24.3) 1958-1959 (14.9 vs 4.9) 1954-1955 (12.9 vs 6.6) 1951-1952 (13.4 vs 10.2) 1949-1950 (8.8 vs 3.4) 1947-1948 (25.2 vs 21.2) 1946-1947 (23.1 vs 20.0) 1939-1940 (34.2 vs 25.3) 1914-1915 (17.5 vs 14.5) 1903-1904 (20.4 vs 20.2) 1901-1902 (15.8 vs 13.1) 1900-1901 (15.1 vs 9.1) Honorable mention - 1999-2000 (both 15.4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA: 12.7 IAD: 19.6 BWI: 18.7 RIC: 5.8 Tiebreaker: 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 RIC beat DCA in the following winters: 2012-2013 (8.6 vs 3.1) 2011-2012 (4.5 vs 2.0) 2010-2011 (10.8 vs 10.1) 2001-2002 (8.7 vs 3.2) 1997-1998 (1.2 vs 0.1) 1988-1989 (15.4 vs 5.7) 1982-1983 (29.4 vs 27.6) 1979-1980 (38.6 vs 20.1) 1976-1977 (13.8 vs 11.1) 1972-1973 (6.7 vs 0.1) 1970-1971 (15.2 vs 11.7) 1968-1969 (15.9 vs 9.1) 1965-1966 (39.2 vs 38.4) 1964-1965 (20.4 vs 17.1) 1961-1962 (38.9 vs 15.0) 1959-1960 (32.3 vs 24.3) 1958-1959 (14.9 vs 4.9) 1954-1955 (12.9 vs 6.6) 1951-1952 (13.4 vs 10.2) 1949-1950 (8.8 vs 3.4) 1947-1948 (25.2 vs 21.2) 1946-1947 (23.1 vs 20.0) 1939-1940 (34.2 vs 25.3) 1914-1915 (17.5 vs 14.5) 1903-1904 (20.4 vs 20.2) 1901-1902 (15.8 vs 13.1) 1900-1901 (15.1 vs 9.1) Honorable mention - 1999-2000 (both 15.4) so about 25% of the time...makes sense.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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