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Mid-Atlantic winter 2015-16 snowfall contest


PrinceFrederickWx

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DCA - 5 inches

IAD - 12 inches

BWI - 7.5 inches

RIC - 1.75 inches

 

 

Tiebreaker - 6 inches

 

I rounded your RIC call up to 1.8". Also keep in mind, like I told SLPressure, the tiebreaker is total liquid precip (rain + liquid equivalent of total frozen precip), not just snow. Your call is fine as liquid precip but I'm just double checking cause it seemed like it could've been a snow total.

 

Looking through the spreadsheet, I can say in many instances the tiebreaker could be very important!  :lol:

 

43 entries so far... wow! Keep 'em coming!

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Great short- to medium-range forecaster...

I proclaim no skill outside a month and even a month is pushing it. Though I know which forecasters to ensembleize plus I can throw in a few thoughts to narrow in. But yeah major bustworthy forecast.. may have to edit before 30th. :P

 

This year's a **** storm waiting to happen though. All my eggs are in Feb.

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:(

 

 

This should be an interesting contest. The bust potential in any direction is high. I took a middle of the road conservative guess but really don't have any confidence in it one way or the other. Can't wait for the first legit tracking exercise. 

 

Its a total WAG on my part.  i know back end winter is favored and Dec is a goner for prolonged cold so I'm just being pessimistic.  My fear isn't so much a lack of precip but lack of cold air to take advantage of that precip.

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All kinds of bust potential in here. This'll be a heck of a contest to watch. I would have gone higher in my totals but I had to check my weenie/optimism bias at the door.

 

my gut feeling is at or below climo -- of course for the contest i went above :lol:

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Doubtful anyone smokes you. But while it's unlikely RIC beats out DCA in any year, it's most probable during a strong El Nino, IMO.

RIC beat DCA in the following winters:

2012-2013 (8.6 vs 3.1)

2011-2012 (4.5 vs 2.0)

2010-2011 (10.8 vs 10.1)

2001-2002 (8.7 vs 3.2)

1997-1998 (1.2 vs 0.1)

1988-1989 (15.4 vs 5.7)

1982-1983 (29.4 vs 27.6)

1979-1980 (38.6 vs 20.1)

1976-1977 (13.8 vs 11.1)

1972-1973 (6.7 vs 0.1)

1970-1971 (15.2 vs 11.7)

1968-1969 (15.9 vs 9.1)

1965-1966 (39.2 vs 38.4)

1964-1965 (20.4 vs 17.1)

1961-1962 (38.9 vs 15.0)

1959-1960 (32.3 vs 24.3)

1958-1959 (14.9 vs 4.9)

1954-1955 (12.9 vs 6.6)

1951-1952 (13.4 vs 10.2)

1949-1950 (8.8 vs 3.4)

1947-1948 (25.2 vs 21.2)

1946-1947 (23.1 vs 20.0)

1939-1940 (34.2 vs 25.3)

1914-1915 (17.5 vs 14.5)

1903-1904 (20.4 vs 20.2)

1901-1902 (15.8 vs 13.1)

1900-1901 (15.1 vs 9.1)

 

 

Honorable mention - 1999-2000 (both 15.4)

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RIC beat DCA in the following winters:

2012-2013 (8.6 vs 3.1)

2011-2012 (4.5 vs 2.0)

2010-2011 (10.8 vs 10.1)

2001-2002 (8.7 vs 3.2)

1997-1998 (1.2 vs 0.1)

1988-1989 (15.4 vs 5.7)

1982-1983 (29.4 vs 27.6)

1979-1980 (38.6 vs 20.1)

1976-1977 (13.8 vs 11.1)

1972-1973 (6.7 vs 0.1)

1970-1971 (15.2 vs 11.7)

1968-1969 (15.9 vs 9.1)

1965-1966 (39.2 vs 38.4)

1964-1965 (20.4 vs 17.1)

1961-1962 (38.9 vs 15.0)

1959-1960 (32.3 vs 24.3)

1958-1959 (14.9 vs 4.9)

1954-1955 (12.9 vs 6.6)

1951-1952 (13.4 vs 10.2)

1949-1950 (8.8 vs 3.4)

1947-1948 (25.2 vs 21.2)

1946-1947 (23.1 vs 20.0)

1939-1940 (34.2 vs 25.3)

1914-1915 (17.5 vs 14.5)

1903-1904 (20.4 vs 20.2)

1901-1902 (15.8 vs 13.1)

1900-1901 (15.1 vs 9.1)

 

 

Honorable mention - 1999-2000 (both 15.4)

 

so about 25% of the time...makes sense..

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