IWXwx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 IWX AFD is 1.5 hours late. Interesting. There was nothing nefarious. They simply didn't realize that the disco didn't go out until I contacted them on NWSChat. Nick got it out within 5 minutes after I talked to him. IWX is thinking 6 inches of snow could become 1 inch of snow because too warm. I haven't seen anything where they are implying that. Most of the models only are showing .3 or .4" of precip for IWX CWA. After accounting for maybe a mix at the start along with unfrozen ground, a slushy inch or two might be a good call for you. I'm not expecting anything more than a DAB down here. I said it earlier in the thread: Congrats Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Definitely an unusual system by this years standards. Making a prediction of 3.5" imby. Subject to change, but feel this is plausible given ground temps, and possible further north track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 There was nothing nefarious. They simply didn't realize that the disco didn't go out until I contacted them on NWSChat. Nick got it out within 5 minutes after I talked to him. I haven't seen anything where they are implying that. Most of the models only are showing .3 or .4" of precip for IWX CWA. After accounting for maybe a mix at the start along with unfrozen ground, a slushy inch or two might be a good call for you. I'm not expecting anything more than a DAB down here. I said it earlier in the thread: Congrats Geos. Early season events are always tough but agree with your thoughts...inch at best our way to 2-4 along the in/mi border. Melts next week regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 QPF shield looks a tad further south compared to 18Z on the NAM just as wet... SLP nearly the same strength through H48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 QPF shield looks a tad further south compared to 18Z on the NAM just as wet... SLP nearly the same strength through H48 Yeah, I think this run will be better overall than 18z. May not have the same weakening with eastward extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Looks a bit more "intense" than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I think while the more extreme outcome could occur, I think there's good reasons to be wary of widespread very high totals. For starters, the very warm ground temps cutting into initial accums and probable low ratios overall. In addition, there's been a consistent signal for very strong frontogenesis banding. I'm concerned that there could be a scenario where that banding is fairly narrow and receives the high totals with much less outside the band due to subsidence and aforementioned lower ratios/warm ground and lower snow rates. Regarding the poorly collaborated snow map, IMHO, our roughly 3-6" forecast is pretty bullish as a starting point for a November snowstorm, but we could've done a better job finding common ground with DVN and MKX. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yeah, I think this run will be better overall than 18z. May not have the same weakening with eastward extent. indeed...SLP a bit further south as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Good run Good trends Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I'll be the contrarian. I say it's going to be a swing and a miss. 1.5" @ DKB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Good run Good trends Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 cycloneville gets drilled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 hawkeye does quite well too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The nam's crushing of east-central Iowa makes me tingle(yes, qpf likely overdone), but I'm still perplexed by the model's fizzling of the low as it heads toward Lake Erie. Anyone wanna take a shot at what that's all about? Edit: I guess the low does slowly deepen, but the precip field just gradually weakens farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The nam's crushing of east-central Iowa makes me tingle(yes, qpf likely overdone), but I'm still perplexed by the model's fizzling of the low as it heads toward Lake Erie. Anyone wanna take a shot at what that's all about? Nothing else has that at all, I'm willing to write it off as an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 I almost wonder if I would do better than the city on this run, even though I'm southeast. Sfc winds almost due east until the latter stages of the storm, which is not coming off the water here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Today I happily met a caravan of IDOT snow trucks packed with salt pulling into their station on Techny Rd in Northbrook! They're getting ready alright! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 We all know deep down that Alek is a big snow weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I'll wait for 6z and 12z runs tomorrow for some sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Today I happily met a caravan of IDOT snow trucks packed with salt pulling into their station on Techny Rd in Northbrook! They're getting ready alright! I saw trucks with plows on them today. They're getting ready quickly. At work they set out buckets of salt by the outside doors. NAM is getting closer to the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Fairly impressed by the banding showing up on some of the early simulated radar products. Looks like there'll be some pretty impressive rates along and north of the main pivot area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 One thing I should mention is that many college students will be heading home for Thanksgiving Break, thus this makes this a really bad timed snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Fairly impressed by the banding showing up on some of the early simulated radar products. Looks like there'll be some pretty impressive rates along and north of the main pivot area. You should be in a perfect spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 4km NAM coming in range now. Noticed light wind from this system, so the onshore air mass influence should be tapered somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Looks juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Surface temps are the beginning of the storm in NE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Surface temps are the beginning of the storm in NE IL What is that 32-33 degrees in extreme NE IL? Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Surface temps are the beginning of the storm in NE IL. Looks like 34-35 along the shore. It will either start as rain under the lighter bands, or have a lot of trouble sticking at the onset in the city proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS thumps the IL / wisco boarder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Low track right along I-70 in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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