Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I would probably nick off an inch or so due to melting initially which GRR mentioned in their AFD, but if it comes down hard enough/fast enough eventually it is snow falling on snow. yeah makes sense...as far as soil temps, although they are higher now (around 45 near the surface)...they will take a hit over the next 48 hours (near 35 or so IMO by 00Z 21NOV). Pavement is a trickier call and will depend on sunshine vs. cloudy etc. Regardless, as you said...the rates can trump quite a bit if they are good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 If the models hold tomorrow after the 12z suite, I think we could see some watches posted. Des Moines probably issues one tomorrow morning, as they will be getting the snow Friday Afternoon. The rest will probably wait until afternoon, except for DTX might wait until Friday Morning as there is more uncertainty there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Really healthy totals. Bullseye over Tuanis. Lock that in, please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Final call 1.6 IMBY 3.5 @ ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Final call 1.6 IMBY 3.5 @ ORD As I mentioned yesterday, I'm liking 2-4 in the city, more like 5-8 north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Final call 1.6 IMBY 3.5 @ ORD Not with me working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Really healthy totals. Bullseye over Tuanis. Bring it. A nice warm fall and an early snowstorm. Love it. Watch this be the only snow we see until mid-January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Fwiw still tons of leaves on trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Fwiw still tons of leaves on trees What kind of trees are these? Do you live in a bio-dome? (off topic: remember how terrible that movie is?) I was in the city over the weekend and most leaves were down. They've been down up by me for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Yessssssss Time for calls.. this is where thread takes off in quality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I'd say 2-4" City, 1-3" South Suburbs, 6-9" N/NW Suburbs, and 4-6" in the Northern shoreline suburbs unless lake enhancement kicks in (then 7-10") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 The lake enhancement setup looks alright. Lake-850 mb delta T starts off in the mid teens and trends toward the upper teens/near 20C toward the end. Good moisture and high inversion heights. I guess my main concern would be how long it sets up over any particular spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 If the models hold tomorrow after the 12z suite, I think we could see some watches posted. I would think so too. This storm will be a shock to everyone. We've no sustained cold or snow yet this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Bring it. A nice warm fall and an early snowstorm. Love it. Watch this be the only snow we see until mid-January. Fire up that live feed! Ha - I hope not. Regarding trees, except for a few slow sugar maples, the trees have been bare for at least 10 days around here. Edit: DMX already posted winter storm watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Will be time to start digging into the November snowstorm records over the next couple days as the position of the snow band gets refined. I posted the one for Chicago yesterday. I checked Rockford and theirs is 9.5" on November 6-7, 1951. Whether this ends up being a record breaker for some areas remains to be seen but we appear to be heading toward something pretty unusual at least. Went and mapped this one. Very impressive width of 5+ for early November. Probably going to be a narrower snowstorm this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE WEST TO EAST ACROSS IOWA STARTING MIDDAY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AREA WIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM FIVE TO SEVEN INCHES ON VEGETATION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS DUE TO MELTING ON SIDEWALKS AND PAVEMENT. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO STORM TRACK AND THE DEGREE OF MELTING. * WINDS/VISIBILITIES...WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH DURING THE SNOW MAY PRODUCE MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING...AND ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME WET INITIALLY AND THEN SLUSHY BEFORE SNOW BEGINS ACCUMULATING. THE COMBINATION OF SLUSHY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 ORD 5.2 MBY 3.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE WEST TO EAST ACROSS IOWA STARTING MIDDAY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AREA WIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM FIVE TO SEVEN INCHES ON VEGETATION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS DUE TO MELTING ON SIDEWALKS AND PAVEMENT. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO STORM TRACK AND THE DEGREE OF MELTING. * WINDS/VISIBILITIES...WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH DURING THE SNOW MAY PRODUCE MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING...AND ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME WET INITIALLY AND THEN SLUSHY BEFORE SNOW BEGINS ACCUMULATING. THE COMBINATION OF SLUSHY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. I guess Des Moines jumped my gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Skilling seems leery of any big accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Final call 1.6 IMBY 3.5 @ ORD Heh, our current P & C almost verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Any thoughts on IWX's AFD: .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER TROF WILL TRAVERSE THE GTLKSREGION THU TAKING ON A NEG TILT FRI AS IT LIFTS NE OF THE REGION.THE FCST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS ARE WELLNORTH OF THE FCST AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY NIGHTTHROUGH SAT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST.LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A COOLING THERMAL PROFILE WILL SET THESTAGE FOR OUR FIRST ACUMMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON. THE ECMWFCONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST NW SOLUTION OF THE MODELS WHILE THEGFS/NAM/GEM HAVE TRNEDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH. THE NAM DEPCITEDTHE SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF ANDGFS TAKE THE LOW ACROSS NE IN INTO SE MI ON SAT. WITH SNOW RATIOSOF ABOUT 12 TO 1 AND THE GROUND STILL SOMEWHAT WARM...EXPECTSNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TOLAKE MI. AS THE LOW CONTS TO LIFT NE...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULDDEVELOP THOUGH DON'T EXPECT THE DURATION TO BE FOR AN EXTENDEDPERIOD. THE CANADIEN AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THECOLDEST OF THE SEASON WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THELOWER 20S WITH HIGHS SUN STRUGGLING TO REACH THE THE LOWER 30S. AWARMING TRNED WILL BEGIN MON AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPR 30S ANDLOW 40S FOR TUE-WED. They don't think jack will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Skilling seems leery of any big accumulations In general or just in the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 18z GFS bufkit has almost a foot at DPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Seems to favor more of a Euro track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Checked the point for here and was surprised to see it shows 5"/2" Friday night/Saturday. Many areas will have the snow start at night which should help things take off pretty quickly. Especially since the snow looks to come down pretty quickly at times with this vigorous little system. Really too early for me to make a call for here, but thinking a few inches is a good possibility. I think the northern DVN cwa has the best chance at picking up the more substantial totals at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Checked the point for here and was surprised to see it shows 5"/2" Friday night/Saturday. Many areas will have the snow start at night which should help things take off pretty quickly. Especially since the snow looks to come down pretty quickly at times with this vigorous little system. Really too early for me to make a call for here, but thinking a few inches is a good possibility. I think the northern DVN cwa has the best chance at picking up the more substantial totals at this point. Bingo to the bolded. Specifically for Chi metro, the November 24, 2004 storm actually had onset in the late morning/early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Skilling seems leery of any big accumulations Does he think the ground is too warm or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Skilling seems leery of any big accumulationsI can remember in '74 or '75 up to a foot forecasted pre Thanksgiving. Snowed gangbusters for 10-12 hours. When all was said and done only had 4 " on the ground. Just see ratios and compaction doing there dirty work this early. Positive note- who figured we would be tracking a potential winter storm this early?And the majority of that storm fell at night. Also, that 2004 storm left only an inch of crusted slush on pavements while grass areas did see 4 " or so even in areas like streamwood far nw of chi. Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 It was actually pretty cold in the leadup to that 1951 storm that I posted. A more recent case, November 29, 2011, wasn't cold in the leadup and was able to produce a band of 6-10" in IN/MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.