wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 YA GOTTA BELIEVE! Now the NAM bumped south. Frustrating to see the precip north of our latitude in the Plains and then drift ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Noticed the 32° line further into the Chicagoland/Cook County on this NAM run. Part of Cook County could see warning criteria snows... Don't worry Wis.Wx you'll get enough snow to cover the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 good run for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 4km NAM - still snowing in eastern MI after this. Lovin' it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 4km NAM - still snowing in eastern MI after this. Lovin' it! 2" on over 1" of liquid IMBY...the lowest of low ratio slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Noticed the 32° line further into the Chicagoland/Cook County on this NAM run. Part of Cook County could see warning criteria snows... Don't worry Wis.Wx you'll get enough snow to cover the ground! Some weird stair-step-like artifacts on the edges there. Maybe my memory is failing but I don't remember seeing that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I wish they could divide Cook Co into 2 for watch purposes....N and S....COOK1 and COOK2...let 290 be the split or something...just to help the office out... anywho... soid temps at 4 inch and 2 inch are both down over 10 degrees already compared to this time yesterday...fwiw with all the ground temp chatter...roughly from 55 to 42-43 ish range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Now the NAM bumped south. Frustrating to see the precip north of our latitude in the Plains and then drift ESE. Live by the Nam die by the Nam! That model wastes more of our time and energy than should be allowed.We look at it because it is there but most of the time it creates false hopes or desroys legitament ones.This mornings GFS ensembles should give us a pretty good idea of where this thing is at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I wish they could divide Cook Co into 2 for watch purposes....N and S....COOK1 and COOK2...let 290 be the split or something...just to help the office out... anywho... soid temps at 4 inch and 2 inch are both down over 10 degrees already compared to this time yesterday...fwiw with all the ground temp chatter...roughly from 55 to 42-43 ish range... they'll probably add it via WWA later this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I wish they could divide Cook Co into 2 for watch purposes....N and S....COOK1 and COOK2...let 290 be the split or something...just to help the office out...Something like that. Polygon winter headlines would be nice for a few of the bigger counties in the CWA... Mostly for Cook though, as headlines are usually Chicago biased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 they'll probably add it via WWA later this evening yeah I agree with that...especially with it being the first event of the season.... not complaining...just seems like a difficult county for them to cover with one headline time and time again in the winter...mostly semantics though EDIT: yeah Joe, or polygons to include certain wards...will county is another long county which also includes the 80 corridor that seems to always be a boundary for systems in all seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 RGEM looks good and in the envelope for the day so far...also has some pretty decent winds into eastern Iowa at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 good run for MBY 950mb stays below -1 the whole time. The warm layer is very thin. This NAM run would give us a run at warning criteria snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 RGEM looks good and in the envelope for the day so far...also has some pretty decent winds into eastern Iowa at the end of the run nice run for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 RGEM has ESE surface winds over Chicago at h48 - that would almost certainly be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 RGEM has ESE surface winds over Chicago at h48 - that would almost certainly be rain. it's showing rain right in the image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I really think parts of DVN get to experience the biggest winter impact maxima for this storm....but obviously a 4+ inch storm in November for any place that has yet to even see a flake is also higher impact as well.... but in terms of actual winter impacts...I feel the goods (snowfall timing, QPF mean for the area, winds on the backside with CAA ramping up as the sun rises to keep temps in check) are in eastern Iowa on this one...for now....fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Some weird stair-step-like artifacts on the edges there. Maybe my memory is failing but I don't remember seeing that before. Maybe it is just the way Tropical tidbits calculates snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 yeah I agree with that...especially with it being the first event of the season.... not complaining...just seems like a difficult county for them to cover with one headline time and time again in the winter...mostly semantics though EDIT: yeah Joe, or polygons to include certain wards...will county is another long county which also includes the 80 corridor that seems to always be a boundary for systems in all seasons I think like LaSalle County could do with some sort of split as well. Probably the next best example when a split or polygon is needed is when you have lake effect snow headlines. Eastern Lake and Cook Counties can be getting blasted and the rest of the county could be just flurries or less. 950mb stays below -1 the whole time. The warm layer is very thin. This NAM run would give us a run at warning criteria snows. Sounding near ORD from the NAM at 3am Saturday. Near my house about 5 miles inland. Same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 12z 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS gives the snow to southern wisco....fun times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS not budging still well NW, warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS gives the snow to southern wisco....fun times Major LE signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Milwaukee to Beloit jackpot zone on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Major LE signal FWIW, I think the higher lollipops, at least locally, will be the areas just inland from the lake that still get in the lake effect bands. I think a good candidate would be Burlington, WI. Woodstock or Libertyville, IL would be two other prime candidates. That's what makes this such a tough call (the lake effect/enhancement and precip types at the time of the LE bands). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 1200z GFS gives most of southern WI over an inch of QPF. Save your self a lot of grief if you can keep your self from looking at the NAM! Will be just our luck if this is the one time NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Will be interesting to see what totals are like if the LE works out as shown on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 1200z GFS gives most of southern WI over an inch of QPF. Save your self a lot of grief if you can keep your self from looking at the NAM! Will be just our luck if this is the one time NAM is right. 12z Euro and some of the GFS Ensemble members showed the southern option as well. Hard to make a call, truly is. MKE mets from WISN 12 (normally the most reliable) went with 1-3" last night, but for an average best guess that's probably too low. If I were to go best guess, I'd say 3-5" which jives w/NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Maybe it is just the way Tropical tidbits calculates snowfall...Same thing showed up on pivotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Interesting to see a pretty decent shift north on the GFS vs. this time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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