mimillman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 925mb 0 degree celcius line stays south and east of the city for the duration of the event. It seems like, given the time of day, this is an all-snow event. The warm layer is very shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 00z GFS vs 18z One thing that caught my eye is that band of heavier precip in extreme southern Iowa/northern Missouri. Thermal profiles are questionable in that area but something to keep an eye on I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 925mb 0 degree celcius line stays south and east of the city for the duration of the event. It seems like, given the time of day, this is an all-snow event. The warm layer is very shallow. I would say a lot depends on how strong the system becomes (even with the current track). If it is quite strong and the easterly winds blow past 20mph or so, then there could be some mixing near the lake, even sneaking up into SE Wisconsin, though likely confined to within 5 miles or so of the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 You weren't kidding Gilbert! Wow, this run is juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 It keeps bumping between North and South, depending on what the GEM/ECMWF do, we should see if the 12Z Run will go back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 It keeps bumping between North and South, depending on what the GEM/ECMWF do, we should see if the 12Z Run will go back south. Model trying to figure out the strength of the low and the position and strength of the block to the north. At least we don't have any wild swings at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 It keeps bumping between North and South, depending on what the GEM/ECMWF do, we should see if the 12Z Run will go back south.The GFS doesn't see what the GEM and ECMWF do and then decide which way it's going to trend. If the southern shortwave ejects fast enough and gets ahead of the northern shortwave dropping into the Midwest, there is room for the trough to go negatively tilted, which would support the more amped up and north solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 00z GGEM...holy crap. Like 2" qpf either on or just offshore of WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 You weren't kidding Gilbert! Wow, this run is juiced. Fearful of a euro flip flop.This is almost too good to be true if you live in southern WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 You weren't kidding Gilbert! Wow, this run is juiced. Free bowme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Similar to the GFS, the 0z GGEM is further north, wetter, stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Free bowme. Btw, Bowme is up north until the week after T-giving. I will have to send some snow love up his way in the form of pics if we get a nice storm (although he got several inches of snow last week just outside of Ashland). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Similar to the GFS, the 0z GGEM is further north, wetter, stronger.It also has the secondary main axis farther south that's interesting. Sort of blends everything for one wide swath of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 It also has the secondary main axis farther south that's interesting. Sort of blends everything for one wide swath of snow. Yeah, huge band especially east of the MS River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 00z GGEM...holy crap. Like 2" qpf either on or just offshore of WI. Interesting, on another board a snow map was posted, and only showed 6-8" of snow for the most part in S Wisconsin/N Illinois. Do we lose that much to rain on the GEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Interesting, on another board a snow map was posted, and only showed 6-8" of snow for the most part in S Wisconsin/N Illinois. Do we lose that much to rain on the GEM? Which site was the snow map from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Which site was the snow map from? Instant Weather Maps, it was through 21z Saturday, so should cover everything from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 1.5+ bullseye just offshore (another site I checked was closer to 2") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Theweatherforums.com. I meant which model site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Nice LE signal on the GGEM and GFS in NE. IL and SE. WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I think the model is picking up on a lake enhanced band of something. Racine and Bowme's area gets hammered with moisture. Hoosier beat me with the map already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 1.5+ bullseye just offshore (another site I checked was closer to 2") gem_apcpn_ncus_13.png Oh I see, looks like lake enhancement signal too which causes the bullseye over the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS text soundings indicate it AOB freezing at the 950mb layer for the duration of the event. It's a very shallow warm layer, albeit a pesky one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 UK Met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 CMC snow map is the best case scenario for the whole subforum this run. Widespread WSW level event from Iowa to Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Spread the wealth type scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Spread the wealth type scenario Wow. Looks like something from mid January rather than November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 UKMET... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 CIPS analogs I might have to call myself a with this post, but of this list, I'd say this bears a fair amount of resemblance to 12/11/2000. Not only the synoptic setup but the potential outcome, simply because a number of these didn't produce much snow. Now that doesn't mean it will be a clone...it won't be as no 2 storms are the same...and that storm was 3 weeks later in the calendar year, which makes a difference (especially if you're near the lake), but I was surprised at the general similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 0z ECMWF is gonna be further south and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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